一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Wednesday, November 12, 2008Technical Picture - Testing October Lows
Barring a miracle, we're going lower tomorrow. Intel (INTC) out after hours lowering Q4 guidance. "Revenue is being affected by significantly weaker than expected demand in all geographies and market segments. In addition, the PC supply chain is aggressively reducing component inventories." AAPL falling in sympathy.



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Posted by Jamie at 11/12/2008 08:53:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Gapper Dummy Trade - Canadian Natural Resource Ltd (USA) (Public, NYSE:CNQ)
CNQ gapped down and carved out NR7 (almost inside) at base of support (blue line). Place Fib. ext, from previous day high to ORL. Partial at 38% extension. I didn't want to give back the $40.00 level so I exited at $39.80. Turned out to be a bear flag and CNQ eventually went all the way to 100% (pretty close).

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Posted by Jamie at 11/12/2008 04:36:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Fibonacci, Gapper



Tuesday, November 11, 2008Technical Picture - Narrow Range Chop at Support
A gap down and early swoon into support on earnings malaise was followed by narrow range chop into midday. Shortly after lunch, a report on CNBC from BlackRock said that the $30 billion Bear Stearns mortgage portfolio is generating better cash flows than the market price implies. A quick, steep rally followed, but it was short lived, carving out a H&S top which sold off in the last hour.

Tomorrow should be interesting as we sit on support, following another relatively narrow range, low volume session. From the 15 min. chart see a wedge taking shape with positive divergence of the RSI and MACD to lower prices.




The USD broke out of its bullish pennant and looks poised to challenge resistance. Gold and energy are still consolidating in a narrow range.




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Posted by Jamie at 11/11/2008 09:56:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Chop Fest
The first chart is a follow-up on yesterday's swing trade. I was fortunate enough to be able to get out a BE on the 2nd half, so I'm happy with that.

The second chart is the S&P E-mini futures. I shorted when price took out daily support . Price retested before moving down to the 38% Fib. ext.. Price couldn't hold the 38% level for very long, so I took a partial. ES formed a base and I was stopped out on bal. Turned out to be a head fake.

After chopping around some more on low volume. Price broke out at the black line segment. I was on the phone and missed the entry so I waited for a NR consolidation which conveniently occurred at the base of daily support. Took a partial after 3 WRBs and was stopped out on balance. ES carved out a big H&S top and I shorted back down to extension. More than made up the head fake.

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Posted by Jamie at 11/11/2008 08:27:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Fibonacci, Head_and_Shoulders, Support_Resistance



Technical Picture - Gap Fade Outside Day

Today was a sellers market, buyers took a long weekend. The only positive aspect is the lack of volume which implies that the sellers were not overly enthusiastic. We are coming into an important support zone as depicted on the 60 minute chart above. Low volume consolidations usually lead to expansion.



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Posted by Jamie at 11/11/2008 12:17:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



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Monday, November 10, 2008Swing/Day Trade - Canadian Natural Resource Ltd (USA) (Public, NYSE:CNQ)
The first chart is CNQ on the TSX and the second chart is CNQ (USA). I don't want to deal with foreign exchange in my retirement account so I'm basically sticking to a short focus list of Canadian stocks that trade on the US markets. In general, stocks that trade on the US markets are much more liquid than Cdn. stocks that don't.

The setup is a 50% Fib. retracement from the previous day low to the ORH (gaps) into the up sloping trendline. I took a partial when price retraced back to the base and I'm holding the second half of the swing overnight. My target is a gap fill at $60.00 CAD.

The day trade was executed in the same manner, except the second half was closed EOD.



Trade Management:

In my swing account I risk between 1-2% capital per trade, depending on the quality of the setup and the market conditions. I don't use hard stops especially when trading from a trendline. Price can test the trendline several times before bouncing. I want to give the trade a chance to work, so I allow for a reasonable amount of consolidation and at the same time respect the risk ratio. If I'm trading a pattern such as a flag from the daily chart, I like to let the second half run a full measured move. In the case of CNQ I have a specific target and I will exit on target or manage the trade from the trendline if it fails to move higher tomorrow. Under current market conditions, I always take a partial on day one. If the trade does not perform well after I initiate the trade, I scratch or take the loss and move on. A good setup should start to make money shortly after entry.

CNQ closed on its highs so the expectation is that will continue with strength on the open. If it gaps down tomorrow, I will look for a gap fill. If that doesn't look feasible, and the trendline is broken, I'll have to exit the trade.

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Posted by Jamie at 11/10/2008 08:15:00 PM 14 comments
Labels: Fibonacci, swing, Trendline



Sunday, November 09, 2008Technical Picture - Inside Day
If the RSI can crack 50 and hold it, we'll be out of the woods, but for now it's one day at a time. Friday's NRIB on low volume is a consolidation day. We closed strong after ripping down just ahead of President Elect, Obama's press conference. So far futures are well ahead of Friday's close. I'm still optimistic.



MYGN doesn't know that we're in a bear market. It broke out of its base on high volume and is forming a bullish flag pattern on declining volume. As long as it can hold the base on a closing basis, it remains bullish. Based on the weekly timeframe, I see a prelim. target at $80.00.

Stewie has highlighted a number of bullish inverted H&S patterns.

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Posted by Jamie at 11/09/2008 08:57:00 PM 6 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Saturday, November 08, 2008Planning the Trade - Apple Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AAPL)
Thursday night I posted the above chart on the blog with support/resistance lines in blue and said if we get a bounce, there was a clear path back up to the 50% Fib. retracement.

What happened on Friday was a fast move to the lowest support level at $96.00. I checked Briefing.com to see if there was any bad news out on the stock, but couldn't find anything. Price stopped at support and reversed. The first target is back up to previous day support (former support acts as resistance) and the second target is the ORH.

Here's how I traded it. If you map out all the obvious S/R levels before hand, you will have confidence taking the trade when price comes into those levels.



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Posted by Jamie at 11/08/2008 05:36:00 PM 3 comments
Labels: Support_Resistance



Thursday, November 06, 2008Technical Picture - Distribution
We gapped lower on the open as day two of the corrective phase saw more broad based selling. Each pause, or attempt to rally was thwarted as sellers maintained control throughout the session. As can be seen from the charts we have retraced 62% and are approaching base support. Let's see if the bulls are going to defend support if we get that low.

Tomorrow's jobs data will set the tone for trading. However, the sell-off was, in large part, a reaction to extremely weak ADP number yesterday morning and initial claims today (not to mention hopelessly bad retail sales). When the real jobs numbers come out, we could get a sell the rumor, buy the news type reaction. In other words, after two days of selling, the bad news is priced in already. We'll see.








The USD rallied on overseas rate cuts, (150 basis pts. in the U.K). Gold retraced, no surprise.

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Posted by Jamie at 11/06/2008 11:35:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ

hefeiddd

Bear Flag - E-Mini S&P Futures
Futures gapped lower. Extend Fib. lines from the previous day high to the 15 minute ORL. Price fills the gap and reverses. After breaching the ORL, price forms a bear flag on declining volume. Enter as price breaches blue line segment or previous bar low. Initial stop is a few ticks above previous bar high (red line segment). Target was 50% extension. Took a partial at 38% extension.

BAC carved out NR7 at the base of the ORL. Enter on break of NR7. Place stop above previous bar high. Partial at half dollar and exit balance at 38% extension.

AAPL is testing first level support. If we reverse tomorrow, we have a clear path back up 50% retracement. I doubt it will be that easy, but keeping it on the Focus list just in case.

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Posted by Jamie at 11/06/2008 10:12:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Bearish_Flag, Fibonacci, NR7



Wednesday, November 05, 2008Technical Picture - Overbought Profit Taking
Futures sold off overnight and we gapped down on the open following a very weak ADP report - nonfarm private employment declined by 157,000 in October, which is the largest decline since 2002. The real deal will be released on Friday. Notwithstanding the weak data, the market was very overbought and we were due for some profit taking. The decline was broad based, but on lighter volume. I'm watching the Fibonacci retracement levels. Thus far we've retraced 38%. I see some congestion at the 50% level.



As expected the VIX bounced at the 62% retracement level.

Gold paused at resistance and I'm not sure how the $USD will play out. The 20 MA keeps holding as support so we may be forming a bullish pennant. Too soon to tell, but I took my profit in AEM today just in case we pull back here.



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Posted by Jamie at 11/05/2008 08:55:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



NR7 at 50% Fib. Retrace



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Posted by Jamie at 11/05/2008 08:36:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: NR7



Tuesday, November 04, 2008Technical Picture - Election Rally - Overbought
Yesterday's NRIB led to expansion - election rally. We are now in a resistance zone and very overbought. The VIX has retraced 62% into support.


The USD and gold are on track as discussed in previous posts. Gold coming into a resistance zone.



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Posted by Jamie at 11/04/2008 10:46:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: NASDAQ, VIX



Multi-time Frame Pattern - BAIDU.COM, INC. (Public, Nasdaq:BIDU)
There were many good long setups today, but BIDU was the bomb. The powerful intraday trend move was setup by good price range and volume contraction on both the daily (left chart below) and the intraday (right chart below). Notice the pre-breakout volume contraction on both time frames. The combination of election day and price/share both contributed to my decision to take only a small position. It was a great trade, but should have been a grand slam out-of-the-park home run.



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Posted by Jim at 11/04/2008 08:39:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Consolidation_Breakout, Daily, Volume



E-Mini Futures Gap - Fibonacci Retracement Trade
Fibonacci Extension from yesterday's low to 15 minute ORH as per Trader-X Fibonacci Holy Grail - # 2. The trade sets up when you see a tradable candlestick reversal pattern at one of the Fib. retracement lines.

Wait for candles to complete and confirm the setup, don't anticipate. Partial when price retests ORH and hopefully an extension will develop, notwithstanding a bearish reversal pattern.

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Posted by Jamie at 11/04/2008 04:25:00 PM 8 comments
Labels: Fibonacci, Trader-X



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Monday, November 03, 2008Trendline Break - Canadian Natural Resource Ltd (USA) (Public, NYSE:CNQ)
As noted in last night's technical picture post, the market had 4 consecutive higher closes, and I was looking for some pullback as many watchlist stocks were extended. So my strategy was to look for gappers on the open and trendline breaks if they setup in an orderly fashion.

The trick with trendline breaks is to wait for price to test the trendline as support, then if price doesn't bounce from the trendline, look for NR shorting opportunities as close to the trendline as possible. In other words, don't jump the gun, otherwise, you might find yourself in a losing trade. V and CNQ (charts below), stocks I traded long last week, setup perfectly.

The first trade was HIG (chart above), a gapper which I found on the Trade-Ideas scanner and Briefing.com gap up list. Notice the consolidation/congestion where price broke down last Thursday. That area acts as resistance, so you want to enter when price moves into that zone, above the blue line.
I took a partial , but eventually after a shallow pullback, HIG extended 100% from the previous day low to the ORH.

AMP, a stock I traded Friday, is setting up a C&H over the past few sessions. $22.00 is the pivot point. Keep it on the focus list.




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Posted by Jamie at 11/03/2008 07:20:00 PM 6 comments
Labels: Fibonacci, Gapper, Pivot Point, Trendline



Sunday, November 02, 2008Technical Picture - Stocks Surge on the Week

For the week, investors pushed stocks 11% higher, which marks the best single-week advance in recent years. However, the stock market finished the month almost 17% lower, marking the worst monthly performance in 21 years. IBD says we are in a confirmed rally, but I'd like to see more evidence in the form of a higher high. After four consecutive higher closes and resistance just overhead, I expect a retracement early next week. A shallow retracement 38-50% would be ideal for a C&H type pattern.

The McClellan Oscillator is signaling that we are overbought. Also, note that the VIX has breached its trendline as we predicted on Thursday.

Economic calendar: Construction spending and ISM Index at 10:00.






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Posted by Jamie at 11/02/2008 09:19:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Thursday, October 30, 2008Technical Picture - Consolidation
A strong open following a better than feared GDP report. Early strength soon gave way to a retracement back to intraday supports. Prices stabalized midday and saw a steady, but choppy push back towards the ORH. I'm calling it a consolidation day. The bulls defended support and that feels good given recent late day sell-offs.



The VIX is still holding the trendline but the MACD has signaled a retracement with today's crossover.

The USD found support at the 20 MA and printed a doji-like stick which signifies indecision. Still on track for further retracement.

The price of gold stalled out at resistance and printed a bearish tweezer, but gold stocks have carved out a bullish candlestick reversal pattern called 3 advancing soldiers. In so doing they closed above the downsloping trendline.


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Posted by Jamie at 10/30/2008 10:50:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Pipe Bottom - Visa Inc. (Public, NYSE:V)
The first chart is the 15 minute timeframe. The key takeaways here are the flat base which forms at yesterday's range highs, the tweezer top which foreshadows a reversal and the bear flag forming into the close.

The next chart is the 5 minute which highlights the pipe bottom, one of the most reliable bullish base patterns, but exceptional and by that I mean infrequent.

The pipe bottom pattern forms a base following a sharp, wide bar by bar shakeout. The wider bars with volume are significant. Look for higher lows as the base ripens for breakout. Normally I would partial out at the 100% Fib. extension (measured move), but V had consolidated for a lengthy period at the 38% level, so I waited for the 3rd WRB. Kept a tight stop when price stalled at R2, but V had one last leg to go. Sweet.



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Posted by Jamie at 10/30/2008 07:55:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: pipe_bottom



Cup & Handle - Foster Wheeler Ltd. (Public, NASDAQ:FWLT)

FWLT gapped up and retraced back to yesterday's high which held as support on two tests. After pushing back to the morning swing high (cup), it consolidated sideways on low volume carving out a handle. Enter on the break of the base with a measured move target of 100% from the low of the cup to the base of the handle (Fibonacci extension). The target was hit with just 3 minutes left on the clock.

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Posted by Jamie at 10/30/2008 07:22:00 PM 7 comments
Labels: Cup-and-Handle

hefeiddd

Wednesday, October 29, 2008Technical Picture - Post FED Analysis
The market held yesterday's gains and added some going into the FED statement. The expected 50 basis point rate cut was announced at 2:15 and the markets did what they do after every announcement that's already baked in... After things settled, prices moved nicely higher and the NASDAQ filled the October 21st gap. A late day bogus forecast regarding GE's 2009 outlook sent the markets into free fall. However, futures are trading substantially higher at this hour.

Usually the markets trade higher the day after a rate cut, and I suspect the same this time round unless the economic data is so bad that we retrace too deeply on the open. I'm watching the 20 DMA and I'm also watching if we will print a higher high as this would provide much needed evidence of a turnaround. So far, we are still in a bearish pattern of lower lows and lower highs. Not sure what will come first a higher high or or higher low.

FSLR trading up 15% on earnings - sympathy play ENER also up. Economic Calendar - Chain deflator, Adv. GDP, and initial claims in pre-market.

Open interest is bullish.

VIX is testing the trendline and carved out NR7.

As discussed last night, the dollar fell on the rate cut and gold/commodities rallied. Gold didn't hold the gains into the close. ABX reports in pre-market tomorrow. Oil carved out a bullish morning star reversal pattern. I expect the USD to retrace 38% -50% as depicted on the above chart.




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Posted by Jamie at 10/29/2008 10:25:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Gold/Commodities Rally on Dollar Weakness
Last night we discussed the potential for gold and commodity longs on dollar weakness. The first chart of ABX is a typical gapper dummy entry. We close all our positions ahead of the FED policy statement.

The second entry is the post FED trade on ABX. I try to make sense of the action and look for a low risk entry point. Here I saw an inverted H&S pattern with a stop just below the shoulder.



CNQ gapped up and ripped out on the open so I took an entry above R2 (small C&H pattern on 1 min. timeframe). Partial after a 2 pt. move into $46.00 and exit after it stalled at $48.00. Again, look for a solid base on the post FED trade.

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Posted by Jamie at 10/29/2008 08:42:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Cup-and-Handle, Dummy, FED, Gapper, Head_and_Shoulders



Gold

The experts at INO think gold is well positioned to move higher from these levels.

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Posted by Jamie at 10/29/2008 12:02:00 AM 2 comments
Labels: Fibonacci_retracement, Trendline



Tuesday, October 28, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bulls Own It - Short Squeeze Edition
Yesterday, we said that the low volume break of the bearish pennant foreshadowed a fake out. Today's bullish wide range reversal, confirms the fake out. Is that a near-term bottom? It could be, but we need high volume, follow through in order to be sure.

The markets gapped up on overseas strength, however, the mood quickly changed following a weaker than expected consumer confidence report at 10:00. A sharp retracement ensued with a retest of yesterday's lows for the broader market and a higher low for the NASDAQ. Low volume, range trade followed into midday with a series of minor higher highs and lows. A 50% Fib. retracement and test of the trendline preceded the bullish reversal. Prices took out recent resistance, retested and set off a short squeeze into the last hour.

Today's movement came from higher than avg. volume(NYSE 1662, vs. closing avg of 1434; Nasdaq 2854, vs. 2396), with advancers outpacing decliners(NYSE 4:1; Nasdaq 2:1). The rally was broad based with Oil, gold, metals, banks, and retail pacing the way. The laggards on my WL were dry bulk shippers. DRYS is trading at $14.00, down from $116.00 in 5 1/2 months.

Watch the bearish gaps (highlighted in pink) as areas of potential resistance. Crude inventories at 10:35 and FOMC minutes at 2:15 EST.


The $USD is finally poised for a technical retracement and tomorrow's expected FED int. rate cut could be the trigger.

What is the impact of a retracement in the $USD? The strong dollar has caused a sharp reversal in commodities and gold. A retracement in the dollar will be a boost to these beaten down sectors.

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Posted by Jamie at 10/28/2008 08:29:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Short Squeeze - NASDAQ E-Mini futures

Initially, I was getting ready to short a trendline break, then all of sudden, price spiked towards the most recent swing high. Head fake before we roll over? Surprise, surprise a bonafide rally. The rally soon turned into a short squeeze. And what a short squeeze! I was planning to exit at R2, but with lots of time left on the clock, I tightened the stop and gave it a shot. Hope everyone participated in this!!!

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Posted by Jamie at 10/28/2008 04:45:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Squeeze, Trendline



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Monday, October 27, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Inside Day
Major U.S. markets were able to hold above Friday's lows in early trade with the better-than-expected new home sales data providing a minor bump. Lame upwards trade persisted into midday with a minor upside bias taking hold in early afternoon action but the averages stalled out near Friday's highs. The retracement accelerated significantly in late trade with the Dow and S&P 500 sliding under Friday's lows (but still above Oct 10th lows) while the Nasdaq Comp, which set a new multi-year low Friday, held above this level and carved out an inside day. Volume was not impressive.

$USD carved out a doji star which foreshadows a retracement, but needs to be confirmed.

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Posted by Jamie at 10/27/2008 08:16:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Lame Rally Leads to late Day Sell-Off
A low volume rally tested Friday's range highs and reversed setting up a short trade.

Took a partial as price reversed after taking out P. Stopped out on false base breakout. Re-entered short as price broke out of a bear flag pattern. Accelerated swoon into the close.

Tried this long setup on ABX again as it set up at the same price as Friday. After retesting Friday's range highs it started to feel like it was going to roll over.



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Posted by Jamie at 10/27/2008 04:36:00 PM 6 comments
Labels: Bearish_Flag, Fibonacci



Friday, October 24, 2008Cup & Handle - Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited (USA) (Public, NYSE:AEM)
I saw quite a few C&H patterns today. The best one was AEM as it set up with a series of NRIBs and NR7 (price/volume contraction ahead of expansion).

ABX's base was not as perfect as AEM and the result was a slow start and a failure to extend fully.


AMGN was not as clean a setup as the gold stocks. It failed on the initial breach of the the base, but held the stop, made a higher low and finally broke out in earnest.

For C&H patterns I extend my Fibonacci lines from the low of the pattern to the base of the handle and look for a textbook measured move of 100%.

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Posted by Jamie at 10/24/2008 05:34:00 PM 14 comments
Labels: Cup-and-Handle, Fibonacci



Thursday, October 23, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Test of October Lows
Yesterday we talked about the bearish pennant pattern taking shape. The one caveat we were concerned about was volume, which had not declined appreciably throughout the pennant formation. Today the pennant was breached intraday and the October lows were tested, but a high volume reversal ensued. What we have at the end of the day is a head fake and a bullish long lower shadow on the doji/hammer-like daily stick. Lets see if we get any follow through tomorrow.

The USD appears to be weakening at these lofty levels. A retracement in the $USD would be good for gold. ABX and AEM are my personal favorite gold stocks and I will be watching them for long setups in the coming days.



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Posted by Jamie at 10/23/2008 10:24:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Earnings Gap Trade - Amgen, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMGN)
AMGN was an earnings gap with a wide opening range, followed by a bullish inside bar. I entered on break of ORH. Place the Fibonacci extension from the previous day low (blue line) to the 15 min. ORH. Price rallied to the 62% extension where I partialed out. The inside doji bar had a bearish feel and I folded.

CELG, another biotech looks like it wants to breakout at $58.00. Notice the frequency of the pivots into that price level as indicated by the blue arrows. Keep it on the WL for tomorrow. I see a prelim. target at the round number $60.00.

FFIV gapped up and looked like it was getting ready to move above the blue line segment after a NRIB, but it rolled over, setting up a low risk short. Here I place the Fib. retracement lines from the previous day low to the ORH. Look for setups near the the Fib. lines in conjunction with proximity to the 5 period EMA. I exited the short as price approached the 50% retracement level.

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Posted by Jamie at 10/23/2008 08:05:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Fibonacci, Gapper, Pivot Point



Wednesday, October 22, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bearish Pennant
The market gapped lower on the open and formed a tight trading range just modestly above the lows as buyers preferred the safety of the sidelines. The break of this intraday trading range led to a steady retreat through the afternoon before a minor, late day bounce. Despite decent earnings from tech titan AAPL, the sizeable overseas retreat amid global economic concerns and the strengthening $USD vs. weaker global currencies led to the lowest close this year, and a well formed, bearish pennant on the daily chart. The worst performing sectors were led by Coal -19%, Gold/Silver XAU -16%, Oil Service -13, Healthcare -11%, Steel -11%, Paper -11%, Natural Gas -10%, and Oil -10%.

The attributes of a bearish pennant:

1. Consolidation of a straight line fall (flag pole);
2. Activity as measured by volume, diminishes appreciably as the pattern develops;
3. Breakout in the expected direction should occur within 2-3 weeks.

The only thing I will add is that despite declining volume during the pennant consolidation, volume is much higher than average. Not sure if that will change the outcome, but we'll soon find out.

Hats off to Larry for discerning this pattern a few days back!





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Posted by Jamie at 10/22/2008 09:46:00 PM 3 comments
Labels: NASDAQ

hefeiddd

Gold and Energy Weakness - Gap Trades
The only way to capitalize on the bear market in the retirement account is trading Bear ETFs. The one caveat when trading ETFs is liquidity. So today I wanted to trade gold (HGD on TSX) and energy (HED on TSX) weakness. Gold is weak because of the inverse relationship against a strong $USD. Energy is more complex but the the higher $USD doesn't help.

HGD held the ORH as support on a closing basis and then it was just a matter of picking your spot.

In the trading account I shorted the real deal - AEM and ABX. My entry on ABX was a little pre-mature
, but the stop held.



The energy play didn't work as well as gold, but still nicely profitable.

For gaps beyond the previous day's trading range, place the Fib. extension from the previous day high/low to the 15 minute ORH/L based on the the direction of the trade.

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Posted by Jamie at 10/22/2008 04:01:00 PM 3 comments
Labels: ETF, Fibonacci, Gapper



Tuesday, October 21, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Another Low Volume, Narrow Range Day


A slow but steady improvement on the credit front has brought the focus back to earnings and guidance. Mixed results and/or cautious guidance along with an extended short term technical posture, led to some choppy backtracking. The good news is that after hours tech titan AAPL beat on earnings (guidance very conservative as usual) and the stock rebounded nicely. Also trading up after hours on earnings: BRCM, VMW, CREE, YHOO, NSC, QLGC.

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Posted by Jamie at 10/21/2008 10:46:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Retracements
I placed my Fib. retracement lines from Thursday's low to Friday's high. Yesterday was inside and this morning's early swing high carved out another lower high. Price moved towards the 25% retracement level and printed a NRIB setting up a low risk short. After taking out the 38% Fib. level, NQ reclaimed it so I covered, went long midway back up to 25% level. Price stalled and carved out a tweezer top-like reversal pattern, setting up a short to the next lower Fib. level at 50%.

Sold the balance of my ABX swing trade on the open. As luck would have it, my alert at $25.00 was triggered in the afternoon. The former base now acted as resistance, setting up a perfect short into the close.


The POT chart is an update on my swing trade. Sold RIMM yesterday on the open because of an analyst downgrade. The account is now all cash. I do believe gold will bounce when the $USD retraces after this incredible run. I'm looking for it to pause at the 85 level which will come into play in the next day or so. Hearing a MSFT for RIMM rumour so I want to get back into RIMM as well. Now that AAPL earnings out of the way, RIMM might catch a bid. Missed the swing move in CNQ and will be looking to pick some up in the retirement account after a retrace.

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Posted by Jamie at 10/21/2008 08:16:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Fibonacci_retracement



Monday, October 20, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Low Volume, Inside Day
Today's higher close was courtesy of energy, commodities and gold. Tech lagged the broader markets and the TSX +7.2% outperformed. The lack of volume is a big concern. Keep an eye on the intraday trendline.






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Posted by Jamie at 10/20/2008 09:41:00 PM 3 comments




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Monday, October 20, 2008Cup & Handle - Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (Public, NYSE:ABX)
Yesterday I discussed setting intraday alerts in the comments of Thursday's trades. Here's a good example of setting an alert at the whole $ level after two pivots. The third test of a pivot point is usually the charm. ABX had tested $25.00 within a few cents on Friday and again this morning (tweezer top). I set an alert at $25.00 after price started to retrace lower. It retraced to the 38% level of the previous day's range and moved back towards the base at $25.00, carving out a C&H. Took dual trades on this one in both the trading account and the retirement account. Holding half position in retirement account going into tomorrow.


I found STR on the Trade-Ideas scanner. I traded this as a C&H but took a partial after 1 pt. because it is so extended and testing resistance.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/20/2008 07:43:00 PM 8 comments
Labels: Cup-and-Handle



Thursday, October 16, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Double Bottom
After a modestly positive open (CPI/initial claims and LIBOR), the markets reversed at 10:00 on weak capacity utilization data followed by higher than expected crude inventories. The NASDAQ futures and Nasdaq 100 breached last Friday's lows and immediately snapped back. The lower lows were not confirmed on the COMP or the broader averages. A retest of the morning swing highs was followed by a lot of backing and filling midday.

The second half of the afternoon felt very bullish as most of the averages carved out bullish hammer reversal bars and closed near the highs. I am cautiously optimistic on the double bottom scenario. As noted in my previous post, I put some retirement money to work this afternoon and I'm holding overnight, which I haven't done in a long time. GOOG delivered on earnings after hours which is a big plus going into OPEX tomorrow.




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/16/2008 10:37:00 PM 8 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Bottom Fishing - Research In Motion Limited (USA) (Public, NASDAQ:RIMM); Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) (Public, NYSE:POT)
Last night we said that a 38% Fib extension from yesterday's low would test support from Friday's lows. That's exactly what happened this morning, followed by a bar by bar shakeout and reversal. I traded the NQ on the lower timeframe based on this strong reversal pattern. I took a partial as price approached the early swing high. After that, we spent a long time on consolidation mode. At first I was hoping for a C&H, but things got a little sloppy. I was ready to bail if the 15 min. closed below yesterday's low. Luckily that didn't happen, and the market finally lifted and soared into the close.

The POT and RIMM trades were dual trades: in my retirement account and my trading account. In my retirement account I'm holding half into tomorrow based on the strong close.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/16/2008 09:51:00 PM 8 comments
Labels: Fibonacci, Morning_Star



Wednesday, October 15, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Sharp Retracement
The markets had a lot of bad news to digest today including disappointing Retail Sales (-1.2% vs. consensus of -0.7%, X-auto -0.6% vs. consensus of -0.2%), core PPI (+0.4% vs. consensus +0.2%) and NY Empire manufacturing index (-24.6 vs. consensus of -10.0). In addition we had to listen to the Fed Chair and Beige Book headlines which only served to accelerate the selling into the close with the Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Comp setting new multi-year closing lows. It was a broad based sell-off with the worst performing sectors led by Steel -16%, Paper -16%, Coal -16%, Oil Service -15%, Natural Gas -14%, Oil -14%, Broker -11.6%, REITs -11%, Casino -11%, Rail -10%, Chemical -10%, Networking -9%, Clean Energy/Solar
-9%
. Futures sold off on EBAY earnings but have since stabilized in a narrow range. The only good thing I can say is that sellers are getting a little weary as volume contracted on today's swoon.




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/15/2008 10:32:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Opening Range Breakdown - Flowserve Corporation (Public, NYSE:FLS)
There was virtually no retracement off of the open as many names gapped lower, consolidated and headed south. The only problem was the noticeable lack of volume especially on FLS.

The NASDAQ futures trade below, carved out a choppy bearish flag pattern and broke down after testing resistance three times and failing. We fell into some sideways action and I grew anxious to take a profit so I partialed out a S1 (thin blue line). A second bear flag and then things really picked up as we finally closed the bullish gap from Friday close to Monday's open. That was followed by a 62% retracement of the last leg down and some wild swings before the last swoon into the close.

Outlook for tomorrow:

Not too good for the bulls as you can see from the chart below, a 38% extension of today's slide is a retest of Friday's lows. The Nikkei is down 666 pts. now and the NASDAQ futures are well below today's close, currently trading at 1220. On the bright side, today's sell off was on much lower volume.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/15/2008 08:40:00 PM 7 comments
Labels: Bearish_Flag, Fibonacci, Gap_Fill

hefeiddd

Tuesday, October 14, 2008Trading Pairs - One Winner & One Loser
A solid base - inverted H&S - resulted in a nice rally to the next resistance level for AEM.

Too much resistance from Friday resulted in a failed C&H pattern for ABX.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/14/2008 08:26:00 PM 5 comments
Labels: Cup-and-Handle, Head_and_Shoulders



Monday, October 13, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bear Market Bounce

The S&P 500 rose 104.13 points to 1,003.35. The Dow increased 936.42, or 11 percent, to 9,387.61, eclipsing its previous record 499-point gain in March 2000 and posting its best percentage advance since 1933. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 194.74, or 12 percent, to 1,844.25. Sixteen stocks gained for each that fell on the New York Stock Exchange. Finally, I was getting weary of shorting and watching my retirement portfolio shrink.

WSJ is reporting that The U.S. government is set to buy preferred equity stakes in nine top financial institutions as part of a comprehensive plan to tackle the credit crisis. It's unclear how much would be invested in each institution. The move is designed to remove any stigma that might come with a government investment. Banks receiving government funds include Goldman, Bank of America and Citigroup. Futures rising in after hours on the news.

Todays' rally was broad based with 16 stocks up for each one down. Oil was up 20%, followed closely behind by broker dealers at 19%. Small caps underperformed with the Russell 2000 up 9%. Volume was above average but well below Friday's, probably in part due, to Columbus day (semi-holiday). The NASDAQ carved out a bullish V bottom, but watch for resistance at last week's gap in the 50-62% retracement zone as highlighted on the above chart. The S&P printed a bullish doji morning star reversal pattern.




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/13/2008 08:24:00 PM 1 comments
Labels: NASDAQ, SPX



Retracement Trades - Morgan Stanley (Public, NYSE:MS)
The markets gapped up and quickly started to fade. When this happens I look for stocks that retrace 38% from the previous day low to the ORH. 38% Fib. retracement is a normal retracement in the regular ebb and flow of a trending stock. MS was the big news story this morning so I quickly jumped in as depicted on the 5 min. time frame below.

There were numerous plays like this today. I also traded DRYS and POT.

The QQQQs retraced much less than 38% and volume was thin on the gap up so I didn't initiate any trade in the morning. In hindsight, the first three bars on the 15 min. time frame look like a bull flag.

In early afternoon the Qs retraced 38% from the morning swing low to the swing high and started to reverse. I jumped in long as price broke above the 25% level. As it broke the base from the swing high, it had the feel of a C&H setup so I drew in my Fib. ext. lines. It stalled for a long while at the 38% ext. but eventually completed a perfect measured move which really took flight in last 45 minutes of the session.

Sometimes I trade the E-mini futures and other times the NASDAQ ETF. Why? When I have too many trades in play, I don't want to risk trading the E-Minis because it requires a lot of attention. Mistakes in the Qs are less costly.


Check out Trader-X's NASDAQ futures trade. Two different ways to trade this one. From the visuals, it looks both of our trades probably generated the same type of extension.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/13/2008 08:20:00 PM 3 comments
Labels: Cup-and-Handle, Fibonacci_retracement, Gapper



Sunday, October 12, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Possible Retracement


Thursday we said support was around 1500. We came within 45 points of that number. Now we need a retracement and it looks quite possible based on the charts.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/12/2008 11:45:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Gold vs. USD

The first two charts are dailies of Gold and the USD. We have an inverse relationship between the two. Friday the $USD rallied hard and gold sold off.

The next two charts are the 5 min. and 1 min. of AEM a Canadian gold company. AEM opened weak and attempted to retrace. Each attempt was on low volume. After the second attempt, we had an inverted C&H type setup. I shorted and covered when price carved out a base from which to retrace.

After a 38% Fib retracement of the swing high to swing low, AEM carved out a double top on the 1 min. timeframe, the second of which formed a bearish tweezer top. I shorted the trend line break and took a partial at base and covered the balance as it formed a second lower base.

Here's a good article on Gold, commodities, and inter-market relationships. The USD is likely to retrace back to its trend line soon (83-85 resistance). That will an opportunity for long gold.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/12/2008 09:43:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Cup-and-Handle, Fibonacci_retracement, Trendline



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hefeiddd

Sunday, October 12, 2008Retracement Trade - Canadian Natural Resource Ltd (USA) (Public, NYSE:CNQ)
CNQ was a retracement trade following a gap down. Despite the bullish OR candlestick, volume was declining and much weaker than the previous day's sell-off. I was looking for a normal retracement around 38% and continued weakness thereafter.

Price retraced a bit more than 38% and printed a long upper shadow. The next bar was weak and inside. I confirmed the bearish reversal pattern on the 5 minute and shorted as depicted below. I took half off near the round $ number and held the rest for a full retracement to the ORL and R2.

A similar entry was taken on the Qs, this time using the intraday pivot points as my guide. Price rallied to P and carved out a bearish topping pattern. After confirmation, I shorted.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/12/2008 08:30:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Fibonacci_retracement, Pivot Point



Friday, October 10, 2008Housekeeping
I'm planning to upgrade the blog so that it can be more user friendly. I'm still using the old blogger template which deprives me of certain enhancements and label features of the new blogger. Blogrolling seems to be almost dead and the blog roll disappears from time to time making it difficult to load the page. It's long overdue and I've got to bite the bullet and get it done. So if the blog goes offline during the conversion, it's only temporary, I hope.

Today was a good day. I caught some nice moves in gold stocks ABX and AEM and some retracement trades in CNQ and the Qs. I'll try to post some charts over the weekend.

Update: Sat. Oct. 11 - The conversion went smoothly. I'm still in the process of adding back all of my blog links which I hope to complete by the end of the weekend. I copied my old template into a google doc and was able to cut and paste most of the HTML coding into the side panel using the gadgets feature in new blogger. I still need to fiddle a bit to widen the side panel to fit one of my sponsors plus some new stuff I'd like to add. I really like the labels feature for searching past posts by topic. Too many topics, but that can be fixed later.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/10/2008 09:22:00 PM 10 comments
Labels: Housekeeping



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Next Support 1500
145 points to go until we hit support at 1500. At this pace, maybe we'll get there tomorrow.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/10/2008 12:24:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Thursday, October 09, 2008Snoozefest Breaks in Last Hour - Financials Get Crushed after Ban Lifted
Until the Qs broke out of the symmetrical triangle, I had only one trigger on this CNQ inverted C&H. Pretty standard fair except 2 caveats - 50 SMA support and base above pivot point P. I took the trade anyway. My target was a measured move of 100% from the morning swing high to the base, with a partial at S1.

The day was a real snooze up until the last hour. One reason for that might be the divergence between the S&P futures and NASDAQ futures. The S&P futures tested yesterday's low in the A.M. (early weakness in financials after the ban was lifted), whereas the NASDAQ held within a narrow trading range until the last hour. After the Qs finally broke, it was a free fall and a sweet ride down.

JPM and MER B&B short.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/09/2008 04:51:00 PM 8 comments
Labels: Base and Break, Cup-and-Handle, Symmetrical_Triangle



Bullish Rounded Base - Flowserve Corporation (Public, NYSE:FLS)

Rounded tops are bearish and rounded bottoms are bullish. FLS formed a bullish rounded bottom (3 NRBs on 15 min.) at the 50% Fib. retracement of the ORL to the morning swing high. Partial out at P and R1.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/09/2008 09:27:00 AM 2 comments
Labels: Rounded_base

hefeiddd

Tuesday, October 07, 2008Choppy Day - Amgen, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMGN)
I had the wrong mindset going into the session, anticipating continuation following yesterday's late day rally. Unfortunately, that didn't happen and we chopped around most of the morning with no direction. A few stop outs and small wins was the theme of the day. Finally, AMGN presented a low risk opportunity.

On the 1 minute chart below, I entered on a tight NR consolidation break down. I liked the proximity to all the MAs above price. As you can see the big green hammer prevented this entry from seeing a big profit. That stop was in staying with the theme of the day, but after a retest of the entry zone, we got a small bear flag which triggered a second entry that finally extended nicely.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/07/2008 09:34:00 PM 5 comments
Labels: Consolidation_Breakout



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Fresh Multi-Year Lows



The markets started on a slight bullish note following the Federal Reserve's announcement that they were creating a Commercial Paper Funding Facility to provide a liquidity backstop due to the strain in the commercial paper market. However, the extension stalled out in the opening range with a choppy pullback persisting through midday trade. After lunch, things started to unravel with a steady stair-step decline persisting into the close. The markets closed down for the 5th straight session to establish fresh multi-year lows.

Futures took out today's lows following announcements from the UK of more bank bailouts.

Check out the McClellan oscillator, this oversold level (-100). is unprecedented in the last 10 years.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/07/2008 08:36:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Monday, October 06, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Sharp Intraday Reversal


The market gapped lower and tumbled in short order as substantial overseas declines, amid expanding global credit crisis fears, weighed heavily. The pressure was persistent for more than an hour before prices capitulated and retraced into the lunch hour. No follow through interest was evident with the sideways action through midday giving way again during the afternoon to yet another round of new multi-year lows before late day short covering rally trimmed the slide into the close. The weakest sectors were led by oil service , airline , casino, nat gas , and steel, The limited list of winning groups included Gold.

We have a lot of hammers on the daily charts and the McClellan oscillator is at -80, an extreme reading which historically results in a technical bounce. Expect volatility to remain high as former resistance will now act as support.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/06/2008 09:57:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Inverted Cup & Handle - NASDAQ E-mini futures
Both of these trades are inverted C&H patterns off of the 1 minute time frame. The first chart is the NASDAQ E-Mini futures. I went short on a NRIB with volume contraction. The target was 100% from the high of the session to the BO point. As you can see from the chart, the target was well exceeded as price capitulated just shy of the 1.62% Fib. extension. Once the huge red capitulation volume spikes were offset by the green one, it was time to get long for a retracement trade.

Huge volume spikes which are outside the average range indicate either accumulation (green) or distribution (red). If you suspect a stock has capitulated, look for these types of volume spikes for confirmation.

AEM was a perfect inverted cup & handle- nice vertical swoon into the target. Sweet!

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/06/2008 04:45:00 PM 8 comments
Labels: Capitulation, Cup-and-Handle



Thursday, October 02, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Lower Low


After two inside days, the markets gapped lower despite the SEC temporarily extending its ban on the short selling of certain stocks and the Senate handily passing a financial rescue package, as there is still uncertainty whether the plan will win approval from the House. Adding to the negativity, initial claims were higher than expected and short term borrowing rates and spreads (LIBOR, LIBOR-OIS spread) continued to climb. Today's sell off was broad based with gold, oil, and commodities pacing the way lower.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/02/2008 10:25:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



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hefeiddd

Thursday, October 02, 2008Trading NRBs - Flowserve Corporation (Public, NYSE:FLS)
I was away for the first hour and half of the trading session. I couldn't believe the blood letting when I came back. Anyway, on days like this, I just stick to the overall trend and wait for something to jump out at me. FLS couldn't find a bid today. I was waiting for a NRIB, but this was close enough. Look at the 1 minute chart and you can tell that this flat base is going to break down. FLS has a huge spread which causes a lot of slippage. In cases like this, and given the tight candlestick formation, I prefer to get in position before the actual break.




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/02/2008 07:03:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NRB



Wednesday, October 01, 2008Dummy Gapper Trade - Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ENER)
The senate vote on the rescue package could have some tax legislation for solar/wind so all the solar names gapped up this morning. It was a fade, but ENER set up a low risk, dummy long midday. NRIB (NR7) for a retest of the ORH. Took a chance on a C&H forming in the afternoon.

I hate when companies release significant, market moving news during regular trading hours. I had almost reached my second level target on this E-mini NASDAQ futures short when the GE/Buffet deal was announced.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/01/2008 07:06:00 PM 8 comments
Labels: Cup-and-Handle, Gapper



Tuesday, September 30, 2008The White Stripes - Button to Button


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/30/2008 10:21:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Entertainment



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Markets Recoup Post-Vote Meltdown


The day after the markets posted their largest point losses, they surged to erase Monday's post-vote meltdown. The markets gapped higher off the open amid expectations that the bailout will be passed as soon as Thursday. Bargain hunting was the theme of the day after the huge declines and a number of very extended technicals. The morning was mostly range bound within the opening range with a lot of backing and filling. After lunch, the morning range was broken to the upside and prices marched steadily higher throughout the afternoon. Gains were virtually across the board with Finance (Bank +15%, Insurance +12%, Broker +10%) pacing the way along with Coal +10%, Steel +7%, Internet +6.8%. Little was on the negative side other than safe haven, precious metals.

I'm hearing that the senate will vote on the bailout package tomorrow, ahead of the house, which presumably will reconvene on Thursday.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/30/2008 09:25:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Cup & Handle - Foster Wheeler Ltd. (Public, NASDAQ:FWLT)
FWLT formed a C&H base & break pattern at yesterday's pre-vote support. Former support = resistance until price breaks out. I extended my Fibs from the ORL to the base and my target was a measured move of 100%. The base formed over several hours and once it broke out, it printed five successive green bars, hitting the target on the fifth bar.

JOYG was a similar setup, but the BO stalled at the down sloping 50 SMA so I took half off. After retesting the base, price extended to the target but volume was not as strong as FWLT.


QCOM was B&B, followed by a retest and a 1 pt. move into the close.


After losing support during yesterday's crash, SQNM, setup another low risk entry at the base.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/30/2008 05:23:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Cup-and-Handle, Fibonacci



Monday, September 29, 2008Technical Picture - Market Devastation





The weekly chart shows that today's drubbing reached the 50% Fib. retracement of the 2002 - Oct. 2007 rally.

The selling started on the open and closed on the lows. Despite the large point and percentage losses, the fact that we closed on the lows and the VIX (VXN) closed near their respective highs, would normally foreshadow further selling.

The Dow decreased 7% closing at 10365, the Nasdaq was down 9.1% to finish at 1984, and the S&P was down 8.8% to finish at 1106. Pacing the way lower were financials including Thrifts and Mortgages -30%, Regional Banks -24%, Asset Management -20%, Diversified Banks -18%, Consumer Finance -17%. Today's movement came from higher than avg. volume (NYSE 1.4; Nasdaq 1.3), with decliners outpacing advancers (NYSE 16:1; Nasdaq 6:1), and with new lows outpacing new highs (NYSE 63:1, Nasdaq 41:1).

As I mentioned in the comments of the previous post, the weekend edition of IBD said that the markets were in a confirmed rally. Be careful what you read, this is a global credit crisis and the bailout package when it finally materializes will likely be too little, too late.




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/29/2008 11:32:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ

hefeiddd

Getting a Head Start
I sometimes trade futures on Sunday evenings after the markets open at 6:00 pm. EST. Usually, it's a fast trade to get a head start on the week.

This was mostly a technical trade of the S&P Emini futures last night with NRIBs (NR7) on declining volume, even though I was watching the news. As the evening and early morning progressed, I became comfortable with the idea of holding overnight after reading this on Bloomberg, "Stocks tumble in Europe and Asia overnight and U.S. index futures retreat as bank bailouts accelerated and the $700 billion plan to rescue American financial institutions failed to unlock money markets."

It was a very late night (not a good idea to go to bed at 4:00 a.m. on a work night). I overslept and the dog didn't wake me up until 8:30 EST, so I tightened my stop heading into the open. I took a partial when price approached S2. Subsequent to a close below S2, price quickly rallied back and I closed the balance of the position.

As I watched the bailout vote unfold, I was having difficulty comprehending that it was about to fail to pass. Other, smarter traders anticipated and jumped into the short side before the final tally was in, pushing prices lower at full throttle.

I'm sorry the bill didn't pass. After listening to all the experts and pundits, it seems that all paths in the blame game lead to Nancy Pelosi for that last minute jab re: failed policies of the Bush Administration. Reckless, stupid, ....???


As the day wore on, it became increasingly difficult to trade. On this FWLT trade my stop failed to trigger, so I had to send a market order which resulted in a late exit. When market makers become overwhelmed with volume, they ignore special instructions and market orders are the way to go.

I had my share of fat finger f#&k ups and realized I could only manage one position at a time. Took this JOYG trade on a market order and exit market after 3 consecutive green bars. Level II screens could not keep pace. One eye on the candlesticks and one eye on the inside bid and ask. I'm glad this isn't the norm, day trading would be exhausting.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/29/2008 07:31:00 PM 6 comments
Labels: NR7, NRIB



Friday, September 26, 20083 in Row - Sequenom, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:SQNM)
Talked about this one last night and the night before. One of the few trades today, that didn't crap out on me before the target was met. Should have taken second exit at $28.00. What was I thinking?

Have a good weekend!

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/26/2008 05:24:00 PM 0 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture - Reversal Day
Today's upside bias was a little surprising given all the negative economic data, but we were due for some relief following all that red ink.

After hours, RIMM missed by a penny and it got crushed.

NASDAQ futures have taken out today's lows and we a close to testing the pivot point base.


JPM has acquired WaMu's banking operations and sources close to John McCain are saying "No Deal" with respect to the rescue package. Tomorrow should be interesting,

Economic calendar - Chain deflator, GDP- final in pre-market and Michigan sentiment at 10:00.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/26/2008 01:09:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Thursday, September 25, 2008Intraday Support & Resistance - DryShips Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:DRYS)
DRYS gapped down and set up a low risk short at $42.50 (3PP base on 1 min.). My target was $40.00 as I didn't see much in the way of support on the daily. I was expecting 3 WRBs on 15 min. chart but it got off to a slow start. I decided to take a partial after 1 pt. because of lack of momentum. I let it go after it became obvious that DRYS was forming a base to reverse.

Price retested the BO point and traded sideways in a tight narrow range (price/volume contraction ahead of expansion). I took it long on the break above the base. Partial as price approaches the ORH and exit balance as price approaches the gap fill. Sweet!

The blue lines are intraday support/resistance or pivots. The uppermost line represents a gap fill. These lines help guide my trading.


SQNM - Yesterday's wide base at $26.00 held as support today. Don't try to catch a falling knife, wait for a suitable entry point. I entered long at $26.20 and exited as price approached $27.00.

ABX held support and I entered long for a retracement trade. If you look at the 1 min. chart, you'll see a H&S top just as price set up that morning swoon into support. Wish I had caught that move.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/25/2008 10:19:00 PM 5 comments
Labels: 3 PP Base, Support_Resistance



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hefeiddd

Wednesday, September 24, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Snooze

A brief breach of the down sloping trend line was short lived and we closed on the lows once again. Futures are trading up AH.

Are the market ETFs banned from shorting? Not sure, but the QQQQ color code was red (not shortable) on IB today.

Economic calendar: durable orders, initial claims in pre-market and new home sales at 10:00.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/24/2008 10:27:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Gapper Dummy Trades - Sequenom, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:SQNM)
The first chart is the daily time frame for SQNM which was ripping on the pre-market scanner. Price was challenging $25.00 and clearly breaking out of a nice base. I was excited because we haven't had many tradable BOs on the long side in recent history. A quick look at the weekly chart established a clear path from $25.00 - $30.00.


The 15 min. chart shows that volume is huge, a prerequisite to a successful extension. Price consolidated in a NR at the base of the ORH. Entry precision on the 1 minute time frame below.


FFIV didn't work out as planned - didn't get anywhere near the Fib. extension. However, it's a widely held name with good volume which generally allows for orderly trade. Scalping in and out turned in a good profit by EOD. Every time a base forms on the lower time frame, a reversal or retracement is possible and a decision by the trader is required. NR consolidation with no volume usually means consolidation, followed by continuation, but a rounded base often leads to a sharp retracement. V bottoms lead to reversals.

Short/cover/short again after head fake/cover/short after full retrace - notice the tiny inverted C&H at the trend line break/cover as price swoons back down to previous base.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/24/2008 08:55:00 PM 5 comments
Labels: Fibonacci, Gapper



Tuesday, September 23, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Low Volume Retracement

The prevailing short -term bearish trend is intact as we can see from the 15 min. chart. Cautious trading during Paulson/Bernanke testimony to the Senate regarding the bailout (did you notice that Bernanke looked and sounded very nervous).

As I mentioned in the previous post, sideways trade after an extensive slide is more typically a continuation pattern (pause in prevailing short term trend not a reversal). Either the market was disappointed as the testimony/Q&A unfolded or the ban on shorting is having a reverse psychological effect. Either way, we had another downside breakout and new lows. We also experienced a solid turnaround off of the afternoon lows but gave it all back in the last hour to close on the lows of the day. Sectors pacing the way lower included: Coal, Housing, Mining, Oil Service, Steel, Casino, Chemical. Strength was pretty much limited to Airlines.



After hours Goldman (GS) and Buffett strike a deal. For Goldman, Buffett's endorsement came at a price. Berkshire Hathaway Inc., is buying $5 billion of perpetual preferred stock with a 10 percent dividend. Berkshire also gets warrants to buy $5 billion of common stock at $115 a share at any time in the next five years. The common stock closed after hours at $134.75, so if my math is correct, Buffett has an instant paper profit of $858 million!

Economic calendar: existing home sales at 10:00 and crude inventories at 10:35

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/23/2008 10:38:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Dummy Trades - Follow the Market
CRR from the Trade-Ideas scanner - Short Trader's Paradise. Multiple alerts on this name so I added it to my focus list. Waited to see how it would pause - consolidation or retracement. NR consolidation usually leads to continuation.

JOYG from the WL -Early entry on inverted C&H because of 1st level support not too far away. Measured move was easily reached but I covered at each support level. Long entry after new base forms.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/23/2008 10:20:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Cup-and-Handle, Trade_Ideas



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Gap Fill

Yesterday, I said that I'd like to see the bullish gap from Friday filled sooner than later. Today we saw a low volume gap fill, and then some, amid investor unease. We closed on the lows of the session because after filling the gap, rather than reverse, we gained momentum on the downside. Broker/banks/ insurance paced the way down despite the ban on shorting. Airlines were much weaker on a spike in oil. On the plus side Gold/Oil.

A correction of the dramatic gains from Thurs-Fri is not overly surprising but how the indices perform from here, will give an important read on investor confidence/underlying health. Moody's downgraded WaMu's Covered Bond Program to Baa1 from A3. WaMu under review for potential further downgrade.

No economic data tomorrow.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/23/2008 12:40:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Dummy Trades - C&H and Fibonacci Retracement

Sort the WL on % change. Review sorted list. Gold and commodities rise to the top spots. Find charts that look promising and stick with them. Eventually a trade will develop. Here are a few trades. ABX is a basic C&H base & break with a target of 100% (measured move of a chart pattern is 100% from the bottom of the pattern to the BO point). A slow mover but eventually reached the target.

ACI offered a quick scalp out of the OR consolidation. I should have exited after 3 WRBs, but I slipped up. It's easier to get out on strength. The second trade was a simple Fib. retracement from Friday's late day swing low to today's early swing high. A normal retracement is 38%. If price sets up a low risk entry at, or near that level, enter the trade. If the setup looks weak, wait for a base to form (upper blue line segment).

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/23/2008 12:03:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: Cup-and-Handle, Fibonacci_retracement

hefeiddd

Monday, September 22, 2008Mailbag - How to Use the Volatility Index in Day Trading
The VIX and VXN measure market volatility for the S&P and NASDAQ respectfully. Volatility increases with fear or market declines. It is very rare to see extremely high volatility during periods of market euphoria. Last week's extreme readings tested highs previously recorded during the TECH bubble meltdown in 2002.

It's probably a good idea to review these charts regularly along with other key market indicators in order to have a good feel for the market and have an expectation for the short-term.


The next two charts are the intraday 15 min. charts for the E-mini Nasdaq futures versus the VXN. As you can see, we have inverse relationships. On Friday when the market gapped up and faded (pts. A-B), the VXN did the inverse, gapped down and faded. EOD today, the market sold off (pts. C-D) and the VXN, broke out of its narrow trading range and rallied.

The intraday action on the market can be confirmed by looking for an inverse action on the VIX/VXN.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/22/2008 10:23:00 PM 1 comments
Labels: VIX, Volatility



Sunday, September 21, 2008Technical Picture - Historic Week ( Ban on Shorting Goes Global)
The above chart, courtesy of Marketwatch, illustrates all of the major market phenomena at play last week. For a complete run down of the last week's historic market events click here.

Despite last week's capitulation, the underlying credit crisis remains and will take years correct. With that in mind, I suspect that near term, we'll rally back up to the trend line, but pressure will come back in when the shorting ban is lifted.

A close examination of the COMPQ tells us that bearish momentum is reversing as depicted by price/volume and the ADX. However, the gap up stalled at the 50 DMA and a quick fade ensued. The black candle signals that we opened higher than we closed, but we still have an unfilled gap EOD as highlighted in green. I'd like to see that gap filled sooner than later.

The SEC's sudden ban on shorts in financials imposed a monstrous move in the cboe put/call ratio.
The McClellan oscillator also made a gigantic move from extreme oversold back to neutral in the space of two days.

The VIX carved out back to back WRBs, first a shooting star, and next a hanging man (to be confirmed). The ban on shorts will remove some liquidity from the markets and will likely result in a decrease in volatility short-term.

Ban on Short Selling - The Saga Continues

The ban on short selling financials is going global. Canada and Germany jumped in late Friday and now Australia has taken it one step beyond, by banning the shorting of all stocks on its exchange. Taiwan will ban short selling of 150 of the index's heavyweights when they trade below the previous session's closing levels for two weeks starting Monday. The FSA in the UK is being urged to extend its ban to other volatile sectors. And in the US, major companies with large financial services businesses, such as GE and American Express are begging to be added to list of 799 companies. The French will monitor shorting activity closely, but have yet to announce a ban.

I fear that the ban will be extended beyond the 2 week range and that day-trading will become increasingly constrained.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/21/2008 01:27:00 PM 3 comments
Labels: ADX, NASDAQ, VIX



Friday, September 19, 2008Pre-Market - New Rules
The SEC has temporarily banned short selling in U.S. financials. In effect the U.S. government has stepped in to control stock prices. This will have serious implications for Wall St. Here is the list of 799 companies. For an idea as to how this might play out, read Trader-X's comment to this post. Also check out his special post on this subject.

Futures sharply higher in response to the ban on short selling. Financial stocks in particular, are getting a huge boost this morning as the SEC announced that it is temporarily banning short selling on certain financial stocks. The Commission's action will apply to the securities of 799 financial companies. The emergency order is immediately effective (thanks for the advance notice) and will terminate at 11:59 p.m. ET on October 2, 2008. Nice of them to change the rules when they're in over their heads with all these bailouts. Now they want to control share prices so that they can save their asses. Finally, I've figured out what Bush meant when he said, he looked into Putin's eyes and saw his soul. Well, we can add one more outrageous act to the Bush presidency - eliminate free market capitalism.

The other big story helping to alleviate fears in the banking system, is that the Treasury will unveil a $50 billion plan that will guarantee money market funds. The Treasury will insure public money funds for a fee. WSJ reported that Citigroup is considering making a bid for Washington Mutual (WM). Some notable large cap financials making big moves this morning include Goldman Sachs (GS +31%), Morgan Stanley (MS +51%), Citigroup (C +25%), and Merrill Lynch (+29%).

ORCL gapping up on earnings and guidance.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/19/2008 09:04:00 AM 6 comments
Labels: Pre-Market



Thursday, September 18, 2008Technical Picture - Capitulation
The VIX topped out at 42.16, a level not visited since 2002, before reversing and closing at 33.10. That looks like a top with a reversal stick.


The S&P and COMPQ both capitulated on huge volume spikes. This is the highest ever volume for the NASDAQ(3.95 vs. 2.2 avg.), not sure about the S&P. Markets started to reverse from another morning of selling after the FSA (U.K.'s SEC) announced a ban on short selling of U.K. bank stocks. Another spike occurred in the last hour on news that the U.S. treasury was looking into an RTC type solution - this is the week for financial fixes. New lows outpaced new highs 4:1 on the NASDAQ and a whopping 14:1 on the NYSE (those NYSE numbers feel like washout levels). Solid broad based gains with little in the red except gold/silver.

I'm now reading that the SEC is temporarily banning short selling in the U.S. - This news, if it's real, will be devastating for day traders. Hope it's just for financials ( I can live with that) like in the U.K. and hope that temporary is like a few weeks, not months like the U.K.

Update on SEC's propsed ban of short selling - Sources close to the SEC now say they are considering banning short selling of U.S brokers.

S&P E-mini futures are way up after hours. Tomorrow is OPEX - no economic data.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/18/2008 08:14:00 PM 5 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



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hefeiddd

Thursday, September 18, 2008Capitulation Day Trades - Morgan Stanley (Public , NYSE:MS); Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (Public, NYSE:ABX)
Morgan Stanley (MS) was the big news story today and it set up the perfect round trip trading. I knew it had capitulated but the long entry just flew past me. I guess I was drowning in euphoria over the short trades. Anyway, the 1 minute chart details the short entries. I'm now using the 10 period EMA (pink line) on the 1 minute time frame as opposed to the 5 ema. The 10 ema acts as support/resistance on the fast thrusts/swoons better than the 5 for this timeframe only. Still use 5 for longer timeframes.

My beloved ABX, setup a follow on trade after yesterday's strength. But just as the broader markets gained some real strength, ABX fell off a cliff. Sweet ride out of a bear flag. The last trade was a gut feeling, but I felt I could afford this stupid indulgence after such a profitable session.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/18/2008 04:37:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: 3 PP Base, Capitulation, NR7



Wednesday, September 17, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Waiting for Capitulation
The NASDAQ and broader markets were pummeled amid continued credit fears. The AIG/Fed Reserve deal to prevent bankruptcy failed to instill confidence. The initial bounce in the futures when the deal was announced was wiped out overnight and weak housing data only served to exacerbate fears. The indices did stabilize during the afternoon but the bears took control of the last hour which led to another round of selling and new session/multi-year lows at the close. Selling was paced by financials and broad based. Gold, silver and oil/gas were bullish.


Looking for signs on positive divergence on the 15 minute time frame is a stretch, so I expect to go lower. The market is clearly oversold and the VIX is testing resistance, but we need to capitulate before looking to get long. Once we do capitulate, I think there will be some great long trading opps in tech.



Economic calendar: Initial claims in pre-market and Phil. Fed at 10:00

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/17/2008 11:45:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Flght to Safety (C&H) - Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (Public, NYSE:ABX)
Gold took off on the open as many panicked investors, used gold as a flight to safety. Both ABX and AEM went vertical and carved out C&H type patterns for the afternoon extension. Neither reached the full extension, but the early entries inside the base allowed for solid gains.


GRMN was a HCPG pick. I did not take the initial break at $35.00 because price had moved too far. However, the next pass above $34.50 allowed me to take the setup as a target trade. Price easily took out the morning swing high and extended to $36.00. Not bad for such a bearish market day.

FLS was a missed trade due to problems with IB. My order was transmitted but printed pale blue rather than royal blue which means that the order did not receive confirmation of acceptance by the order destination. FLS has a wide spread and I know I should use stop limit orders, but I'm sure that the order desks are filling the easiest instructions first on days like today. Anyway, when I noticed the color code, I canceled the order, price was too far gone to salvage a trade.

Ironically, on such a bearish session, most of my stock trades were on the long side. Every time I pull up a chart of AIG, my Esignal platform crashes. IB is also having stability and execution glitches, so there were a lot of lost opportunities for day traders.

UNH is a trade I took yesterday after reading that they had large positions in LEH and AIG.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/17/2008 08:59:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Cup-and-Handle, Fibonacci



Pre-Market
Futures sharply lower following dismal housing starts. Despite the AIG bailout and better than expected earnings from MS , financials are gapping lower - AIG, MS, C, GS, MER, WB, AIB...

CNBC reported senior people at MS concede that further zig-zags in the co's stock price could, and possibly will, force it to change course and seek a merger partner, probably a well capitalized bank.

Also gapping down: select Chinese names following weak Shanghai markets ACH, PTR, CEO, CHA...

Too much uncertainty remains so it looks like we could retrace a good portion of yesterday's gains.

Crude inventories a 10:35.

Gapping Up: ADBE, HOKU European banks LYD, BCS

Bloomberg reports that the TED spread has widened to the most since the crash of 1987. Not sure what that means, but it doesn't sound good.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/17/2008 09:04:00 AM 6 comments
Labels: Pre-Market



Tuesday, September 16, 2008Technical Picture - Technical Bounce or Potential Reversal
The first chart is the weekly time frame for the S&P. The key takeaway here is the technical bounce at the 50% Fib. retracement level of the 2002 lows to the Oct. 2007 highs. We bounced from the 38% level and now we bounce again at the 50%. Is this a bottom? Not sure, but we'll need to see continuation on high volume.


The VIX topping candle foreshadows at retracement.

The NASDAQ breached supports on the gap open, but managed a strong bullish engulfing bar with big volume. My only concern about the volume, is that it is largely due to the post FED rally as we can see from the QQQQ chart below.

Economic Calendar: Housing starts and building permits in pre-markets and crude at 10:35

AIG bridge loan announced this evening - Over the weekend, AIG, pleaded with the FED to provide a $40 billion bridge loan to stave off a crippling downgrade of its credit ratings as a result of tens of billions of dollars of losses related to insurance investments that have turned sour. The FED rebuffed, and now two days later, it's going to cost them at least twice as much. Time is money - way to go guys!

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/16/2008 09:49:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ

hefeiddd

Pre-Market
Futures are selling off again this morning. Shares of AIG (AIG) are plunging again this morning, after Fitch and A.M. Best last night joined S&P in downgrading the co's ratings and placing it on credit watch. Shares of Goldman Sachs (GS) are off more than 10% after the co reported mixed Q3 results, as annualized return on avg tangible common shareholders equity fell to 8.8% from 23.5% in Q2. Outside of finance we have shares of Best Buy (BBY) down 9.0% after the co missed by $0.09. CPI fell for the first time since Oct '06, coming in as expected. Reminder - the highly-anticipated FOMC rate decision and policy statement is due out at 2:15 EST. Most economists expect no change, but fed funds futures are currently pricing in a 100% chance of a 25 basis point cut to 1.75%.

Gapping Up: Select airlins on lower oil UAUA, AMR, LCC,

Gapping Down: AIG, ING, WB, GS, UBS, MS, DELL, GE, GOLD, RSX, OI, BBY,

AAPL removed from Goldman conviction list.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/16/2008 08:49:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: Pre-Market



Monday, September 15, 2008Technical Picture - Global Markets Sell-Off as Lehman, AIG Stoke Wall St. Crisis
It was sad to watch all those Lehman employees leaving the building with boxes of personal belongings in tow, last night on CNBC.

The financial sector headlines (LEH, MER, BAC, AIG) drubbed global markets, with the DOW down 500+ points and the S&P taking out 52 week lows as volatility spiked.


The NASDAQ has yet to take out the 52 week lows, but momentum is building as prices ready to test those levels.

We are in the oversold zone, but we can stay oversold for a very long time as the July section of the NAMO chart highlights.

Economic Calendar: CPI in pre-market and FOMC policy statement at 2:15.

GS reports before the open. HPQ has announced a 7% workforce layoff as it integrates its operations with EDS.

Eminis continue to tick lower after hours as Asian markets print red -NIKKEI currently off by 500+ pts.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/15/2008 09:30:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Dummy Trades - American International Group, Inc. (Public, NYSE:AIG); DryShips Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:DRYS)
With all the headlines (LEH, MER BAC, AIG), I found today's markets were jittery and choppy so I stuck to the most orderly setups. AIG was a wide gap so I was looking for confirmation on the 1 minute time frame (3 pivot point base & break).

After a fast move to the downside and capitulation volume, it carved out a V bottom with handle for a low risk long.


DRYS was a low risk short on price/volume contraction at the base $50.70. Partial after 3WRBs and 38% Fib. extension of the previous day high to the ORL. A whip lash reversal resulted in a stop out with slippage on the balance of the trade. My Esignal platform was unstable most of the day, so I was caught in a dead screen, otherwise, I might have been able to anticipate and get a better exit on the second half.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/15/2008 04:57:00 PM 3 comments
Labels: 3 PP Base, Fibonacci, Gapper, NR7



Sunday, September 14, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Historic Events Driving Markets



Lehman will file for bankruptcy tomorrow. BAC has agreed to buy Merrill Lynch at a premium. Is this a turning point for the markets? This will be a historic, event driven week for the markets. The broker/dealer business model appears to be going the way of the dinosaur. To come - GS earnings on Tuesday morning; FOMC policy Tuesday afternoon; OPEX on Friday. And what of AIG? Hearing that U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve are expected to say they are prepared to be more generous in the Fed's emergency lending program for commercial and investment banks.

CNBC currently reporting live as all this unfolds - USD falling, futures falling, Gold rising...

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/14/2008 08:50:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Friday, September 12, 2008Pre-Market
Weak retail sales and financials continue to weigh on the markets with the fate of LEH in suspense if a buyer isn't found by the end of the weekend. Futures much lower as we approach the open.

Gapping Up: FWLT, HUN, AAUK,

Gapping Down: CMG, PDGI, ASML Select financials LEH, MER AIG, WB, IBN, ABK...

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/12/2008 09:20:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: Pre-Market



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hefeiddd

Friday, September 12, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bullish Engulfing Bar

Pre-market weakness in financials and the sell off overseas, resulted in sharp gap down on the open. But after the first 20 minutes or so, things turned into a gap fade, followed by an extension in the afternoon.

After hours the Washington post is reporting that the treasury and federal reserve are getting involved in the sales of Lehman to a consortium of private firms.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/12/2008 12:10:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Thursday, September 11, 2008NR7 Inside - Flowserve Corporation (Public, NYSE:FLS)
FLS printed NR7 on the Trade-Ideas WL scanner. The setup lined up perfectly with Monday's reaction low which resulted in a 6 pt. reversal. Today's move was almost identical. I exited after 3 WRBs as price approached $105.00. As you can see from the chart, FLS is setting up a base at $106.00, so keep it on the WL and don't forget to set an alert.

N.B. - FLS, can at times, have a very wide spread (as much as 30-35 cents), so adjust position sizing accordingly.

QCOM was a low risk B&B.

RIMM and GOOG were C&H type patterns. The GOOG setup is ideal because the trigger bar is inside. The RIMM setup is not inside but still worth a try. Unfortunately, shortly after entry, CNBC announced a delay in the launch of the Blackberry Bold in the U.S. due to the service provider, AT&T. RIMM was stopped out, GOOG was a success. I closed the GOOG position when it approached the next round $ figure.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/11/2008 09:06:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Cup-and-Handle, NR7, NRIB



Pre-Market
Headline in the WSJ this morning is "US Senate probe accuses Wall St cos in tax scheme" includes all the big investment brokers -Morgan Stanley (MS), Lehman Brothers (LEH), Citigroup (C), and Merrill Lynch (MER) - marketed allegedly abusive transactions that helped foreign hedge-fund investors avoid billions of dollars in U.S. taxes over the past decade. Needless to say these stocks and banks are ripping lower on the scanner. LEH currently testing $4.00 as the WSJ, in a separate tag, talks about the lack of disclosure with respect to the size of its commercial real estate holdings. Citi and GS have downgraded LEH. Asian markets sold off overnight, as are Europeon markets. Adding to the negative sentiment were the weaker than expected econ. data re: inital claims and import prices.

Futures trading sharply lower and only one stock on the gap up scan - CSX on earnings.

Gapping down: LEH, MER, C, GS, MS, BAC, WB, AIG, WM, AXA, RF, RIO ... Analyst downgrades NVDA, PDLI, AEG, AZN Earnings KNXA


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/11/2008 08:51:00 AM 3 comments
Labels: Pre-Market



Wednesday, September 10, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Consolidation Day


A low volume consolidation day which retested yesterday's lows and attempted to rally. The rally was choppy and the advance failed near 1st level resistance. Lack of confidence in the rally resulted in late day profit taking. Upside leadership was provided by the Commodity/Energy complex. Weakness was noted in airlines, casinos and financials.

Economic calendar: Initial claims, import/export and trade balance in pre-market and treasury budget at 2:00 EST.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/10/2008 09:48:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Cup & Handle - Canadian Natural Resource Ltd (USA) (Public, NYSE:CNQ)
As the markets consolidate it's best to stick with the tried and true. Today's attempt at a rally was lame with few good trading opps unless you're buying support and selling resistance.

CNQ formed a perfect C&H pattern after carving out a triple bottom. The target 100% extension was met and slightly exceeded. I was hopeful for a gap fill, but it didn't happen.

GOOG fell out of a 3 pivot point base for a fast move to the next round $ number.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/10/2008 05:19:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: 3 PP Base, Cup-and-Handle

hefeiddd

Tuesday, September 09, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Tech Titans Swoon to Support
The NASDAQ is underperforming as it approaches key technical support levels between 2200 and 2175 on increasing volume. Oil is also approaching its 50% Fib. retracement level and the psychologically significant $100.00 mark. The aggressive selling makes me less confident that the key technical levels will result in anything more than a consolidation point.


The titans of tech, AAPL, RIMM, and GOOG are testing key support levels. I don't actively trade GOOG, but AAPL and RIMM could go to $120.00 and $80.00 respectively, if these support levels don't hold.





[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/09/2008 11:22:00 PM 3 comments
Labels: AAPL, GOOG, NASDAQ, RIMM



Parabolic Move - Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (Public, NYSE:LEH)
The first chart is the daily which shows a bearish engulfing bar following the FRE/FNM bailout. That was very telling given that most financials were up yesterday.

In this morning's pre-market post, we said that LEH was gapping lower because the investment talks with the South Korean bank were over. That was the biggest story of the morning and LEH was the most active on my TI pre-market scan.

Initially, LEH formed a bullish rounded base on the 1 min. time frame, but quickly turned lower, setting up a low risk short. As you can see from the 1 min. chart, once price broke $11.50, it set off on a parabolic move characterized by tight red candles. As the move progresses, the candles get wider and wider, culminating in capitulation on a huge volume spike.

Following the capitulation, LEH was range bound between $9.00 and $10.50. Eventually, it broke $9.00 on a head fake. Head fakes usually result in fast moves in the opposite direction, so I jumped in long.

I had to leave at 2:00 on personal business, so that was it for me.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/09/2008 08:54:00 PM 3 comments
Labels: Gapper, Parabolic



Pre-Market
Futures mixed on lower oil and higher USD.

Gapping down: FUL, LEH (investment talks with South Korean bank have ended), TWTC, UNG, RIO, SLW

Gapping Up: Select airlines on lower oil UAUA, AMR,...

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/09/2008 09:22:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: Pre-Market



Monday, September 08, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Gap Fade





Stocks jumped aggressively higher on the open following the Treasury's FNM and FRE bailout news announcement over the weekend. This brought the move off of Friday lows to almost 5% for the S&P and Dow and immediately lead to a healthy dose of profit taking that continued into midday. The Dow and S&P 500 held near the 50% Fib. retracement of the Fri-Mon rally, forming a trading range before a modest move higher in the final hour. The NASDAQ, on the other hand quickly filled the gap, but found support in the 2240 area before retracing 50% towards the ORH. Top performing sectors were led by banking, housing, retail, an insurance. Sectors on the defensive were led by commodity/energy as the USD set a new 11 month high (coal, mining, steel, gold, solar, oil and gas).

Economic calendar: pending home sales and wholesale inventories at 10:00.

Futures modestly lower as Asian markets fall overnight on growth concerns.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/08/2008 11:20:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Gap Fade - Apple Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AAPL)
If a stock gaps up into an obvious resistance level and starts printing red, it's a good fading opp. AAPL set up perfectly on a break of $164.00.

JOYG was a gap continuation play from last week's earnings gap.

Trading pairs - AAPL and RIMM have been trading in step lately as are JOYG and BUCY.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/08/2008 04:13:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Gap_Fade



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hefeiddd

Friday, September 05, 2008Pre-Market
Futures lower following jobs data. Global sell off overnight.

Gapping Up: SNDK, UST,

Gapping Down: NOK lowers Q3 outlook - MOT, RIMM, AAPL, QCOM, ERIC, STM ALU in sympathy; select financials MER (cut to sell at Goldman), FNM, FRE, MBI, AIB, DZZ...SID, ABM

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/05/2008 09:08:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: Pre-Market



Thursday, September 04, 2008Weekly Low BO - Ctrip.com Intl Ltd (Public, NASDAQ:CTRP)
I have been periodically trading CTRP from the short side. Following the earnings based run-up in August, I have been looking for another good short opportunity. The weekly chart below shows price range and volume contraction after the week of the earnings release. Given the weak market, I was anticipating a possible BO of the prior weekly low.

Below, the daily chart (left) and the 15min chart (right) show that weekly price pivot (PP) level. This morning price tested that level and then formed a 15min NRIB on that key level. The entry was against the NRIB. The fact that the NRIB formed below the opening range low (ORL) and near the down-sloping 5ema added confidence. The weakness in the overall market helped tremendously. I took a partial on what looked to be capitulation (vertical price move on high volume). I then trailed a stop and decided to hold the remaining position for an overnight trade. Closing at the extreme of the daily range (the low in this case) on heavy volume is a valid reason to hold a trade for potential overnight follow thru.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jim at 9/04/2008 09:13:00 PM 5 comments
Labels: Capitulation, NRIB, ORL, Pivot Point



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bears Own It

A gap down on weak data and mixed retail sales followed by a 4th successive day of broad based declines for the NASDAQ. After hours, futures continue to stair step lower. Tomorrow's jobs data will likely add to the volatility. Hearing that more hedge funds are liquidating.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/04/2008 08:21:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Chopfest - Apple Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AAPL)
Despite the big drubbing, I found the markets choppy and difficult to find good spots. Here are two trades that worked out.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/04/2008 04:05:00 PM 6 comments
Labels: AAPL



Pre-Market
Futures testing yesterday's lows following initial claims which were higher than expected. Productivity better than consensus. Same store sales is a mixed bag of beats and misses.

Gapping Up: CLNE, SOLR,

Gapping Down: CIEN, HOV, SHPGY, TEX, HIBB, HRB, PNRA

Crude oil inv. at 10:35

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/04/2008 09:18:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: Pre-Market



Wednesday, September 03, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Dumping Tech
Weak global demand for energy and commodities is permeating to technology as the NASDAQ continues to sell-off. The demise of the Ospraie hedge fund is likely spreading fear and other funds are probably busy unloading. S&P strength was courtesy of financials and consumer discretionary

Economic calendar: Initial claims, productivity in pre-market; ISM services at 10:00, and Crude inventories at 10:35. Also ADP employment in pre-market.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 9/03/2008 10:05:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Gapper Dummy Trade - Joy Global Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:JOYG)
I got a late start to my trading day due to some personal business. The first thing I did when I came in around mid-morning, was check the Trade-Ideas pre-market scans for gappers. JOYG was ripping lower in pre-market due to earnings. At 11:00 - 11:15 both JOYG and BUCY (sympathy play) printed NR7 (TI scan of watch list) on the 15 minute timeframe and that was my cue to get short. Both stocks exceeded the prelim. target (38% Fib. extension of the previous day to the ORL) helped along by lower oil, I suspect.



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Posted by Jamie at 9/03/2008 04:09:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Fibonacci, Gapper, NR7



Tuesday, September 02, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Hello Volatility
A huge opening gap quickly turned into fade as oil started to recover from pre-market lows following a less powerful Gustav hurricane than previously feared. Into midday, and as prices completely filled the gap, it appeared as if the market might stabilize and possibly reverse, but shortly after lunch the bears stepped up the pace and volume/volatility accelerated as Friday's supports were taken out.

The above chart of light sweet crude bears watching as prices react to key technical levels. We have just lost the 38% Fib. retracement level and the 200 DMA on a hammer reversal bar. Prices did attempt to rally from the trend line but failed. The next key level if the hammer doesn't follow through is the 50% Fib. retracement level which conveniently lines up with the psychologically significant $100.00 price level. I suspect that the big money is waiting and ready to buy at $100.00 so we should see an important technical bounce.



No Pre-Market post tomorrow.

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Posted by Jamie at 9/02/2008 10:44:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Watch List Trades - Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ENER)
ENER set up a perfect bear flag on weaker oil this morning. I took a partial as price started to retrace and covered the balance as price approached the round $ number $70.


AAPL is a trade from Friday. I had previously mentioned AAPL as a focus list stock at the intraday pivot point $172.00 as significant. Hope you guys had your alerts on. It set up perfectly and my alert warned me that price was in play. I missed the big move today because of a power failure. The power went off some time between 1:15 and 1:30. By the time it came back on and I was up and running again it was almost 2:30 EST and the big moves were in, so I called it a day.

FLS - I've been trading this one daily for a week or so.


CNQ - another oil play, had nice volume on the BO bar, but no follow through.

Gap Scan Trades - DELL and PETM on Friday were both more or less scratches. LOW was released as a buy stop at $26.64 just as power failure occurred. Happily, price never triggered as markets headed south.

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Posted by Jamie at 9/02/2008 08:16:00 PM 5 comments
Labels: Bearish_Flag, Pivot Point



Pre-Market
Futures sharply higher as oil plunges following a much weaker Hurricane Gustav cat. 2 vs. cat. 4.

Gapping Up: Select airlines and mortgage/financials also AAPL added to focus list at Piper, LOW upgraded to Buy at Goldman, LEH Korea back in the picture.

Gapping Down: Select oil/gas, metals/mining, and Agchem names

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Posted by Jamie at 9/02/2008 09:08:00 AM 2 comments
Labels: Pre-Market



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