一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

In May, I pointed out what looked like a nice little H&S pattern on LNN. This pattern was never really completed, though, and there's little more dangerous than a failed pattern, so I got out at once. The stock pushed higher. On Tuesday I was toying with the idea of shorting it, but shorting based on the conjecture of a double top is often dangerous, because there's very little to keep a stock from rendering the double top moot by having simply one more good day. In any event, a short here would have played out nicely, as the stock got zapped hard. Ah, well. This is something my charts wouldn't have been very good at predicting.

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I will be out and about all day long, and I'll do a post tonight. I'm sorry for anyone that waited for this post last night. Have a good trading day!

Posted: 05:08 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

六月 06, 2008 - 05:26 下午WallopToday was a surprise to everyone, me included. Yesterday I was wringing my hands that maybe the economy wasn't so bad after all. Maybe there wasn't a recession. Maybe there was just a slowdown in growth that was going to be shaken off and replaced with unprecedented movement higher. I was getting jittery.
This morning's shocking jobs report set my mind at ease. The largest jump in unemployment in 33 years. The permabulls on CNBC were desperately trying to spin the news, but to no avail - - stock indexes plunged across the board. The only green on the screen was gold, which shot higher due to the U.S. dollar taking another drubbing.
My favorite aspect of the day was that in spite of crude oil's ungodly rise today - - not just a record new high, but a record one-day movement upward - - oil stocks fell! The OIH was down. Commodity stocks were down. Solar was down. It was beautiful! If these stocks can't go up on a day that oil spikes over $10 a barrel, don't you think the bloom is off the rose?

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Here is an intraday minute bar graph of the S&P 500. Pretty nice looking head and shoulder there, isn't it? If I've drawn this correctly, it would project a target of about 1,300. The next major Fibonacci is lower than that - 1,270.

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The $NDX finally - finally!!! - broke its ascending channel today. Good.

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On a daily graph, you can see the S&P 500 potential more clearly. There's a clean 100 points between current levels and the next Fibonacci, which is where we've had two bottoms so far in 2008 (one in January, one in March). That is major, major support.

hefeiddd

On a daily graph, you can see the S&P 500 potential more clearly. There's a clean 100 points between current levels and the next Fibonacci, which is where we've had two bottoms so far in 2008 (one in January, one in March). That is major, major support.

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Looking at the Dow, the next level down is about 11,500. Not that far away, when you consider it is 700 points, and today alone the Dow dropped 400.

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China is looking weak again. My FXI puts are doing nicely.

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And yesterday's price bar for the $COMPQ was just death-defying. It came within a cat's whisker of pushing past resistance, but it didn't happen. Today prices fell away swiftly from this level.

hefeiddd

And yesterday's price bar for the $COMPQ was just death-defying. It came within a cat's whisker of pushing past resistance, but it didn't happen. Today prices fell away swiftly from this level.

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I've back up ten years for the graph below, just to show how battered banks are getting.

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Just a few equities tonight.........AutoZone (AZO) is making some good movements within its diamond pattern; a break below 119 is essential at this point for something really bearish.

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XEC is just one example of an energy stock which fell on a hugely bullish energy day.

hefeiddd

XEC is just one example of an energy stock which fell on a hugely bullish energy day.

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Lastly, Sears is a new holding for me. I am pushing myself to short (or buy puts on) battered stocks instead of high fliers. That may sound really elementary, but for me, it's a change.

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Setting Thursday aside, this was a dynamite week. Monday should, of course, be fascinating. Will it be a Black Monday, or will it be a Bounce? I have no idea. I've lightened up on my index puts to some degree, but I'm still very much positioned for more downward movement. Have a good weekend, everyone.

Posted: 05:26 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

五月 23, 2008 - 03:26 下午The Bear is BackThis week was pivotal. Although I don't think it's going to be straight down from here, in my opinion, this week's action has brought an end to the bear market rally that spanned from mid-March until mid-May. Our national nightmare is over.
All the indexes got beaten up, but their patterns and projections all vary. Investment banks had a tough week, and this chart of the $XBD suggests the high made on May 2 was simply another "lower high" in a long progression downward.

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The NASDAQ bounced off major resistance at about 2,550 and also has cut through its 25% median line. At this point, as I mentioned in my prior post, I closed out my NDX and SPX puts for good profits. I have one index position - on the Russell 2000 - which I entered late today. But everything else is just shorts and equity puts.

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This channel indicates the reason I was eager to take profits on the $NDX. Of course, I keep thinking about the MLK 3-day weekend in January and what that was like. (If you don't remember, worldwide markets got creamed and not only did I have no index puts, I had an index call!) In any case, I'm taking a breather on index puts, with the exception of my $RUT position.

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I'm still holding on to my $XAU puts, since I think gold has topped out and is heading lower (sort of like oil...........)

hefeiddd

I'm still holding on to my $XAU puts, since I think gold has topped out and is heading lower (sort of like oil...........)

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The Russell 2000 index did a couple of important "bearish" things this week. First, the breakout from the $730 level has failed, thus negating its bullish important; second, it has dipped below both its major (blue) and minor (green) Fibonacci retracement levels.

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And - - I've just got to say it - - 1383 on the S&P is broken! I have been yacking about that level for ages. It finally broke today. More importantly, the close was near the day's lows. We didn't rally. We are plainly below 1383 now.

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Just for the hell of it, there are a handful of stocks that I'd be tempted to buy calls on (but I won't). Should we get a bounce on Tuesday, there are some battered issues which looked poised for a small pop. There's Alcoa......

hefeiddd

Just for the hell of it, there are a handful of stocks that I'd be tempted to buy calls on (but I won't). Should we get a bounce on Tuesday, there are some battered issues which looked poised for a small pop. There's Alcoa......

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.......Capital One, which is very near its supporting trendline........

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.....and Genco, which has retraced back to its neckline.......

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As for shorts, here are a few favorites: Autozone still appears to be in the throes of a diamond pattern.

hefeiddd

As for shorts, here are a few favorites: Autozone still appears to be in the throes of a diamond pattern.

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Albermarle is right up against its broken trendline.

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Cerner is falling away from its major resistance at $48.75.

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Chattem completed a very nice head and shoulders pattern today.

hefeiddd

Chattem completed a very nice head and shoulders pattern today.

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And Schlumberger is also falling away from major resistance.

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So - - a great week! And quite a contrast to the last few. To close today, here's an interesting new video from Don Harrold (I own puts on ISRG, so I found this especially intriguing; plus I have this quirky fondness for the truth, so Cramer gets on my nerves too).


Posted: 03:26 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

四月 07, 2008 - 02:17 下午Squeezably Soft         
Posted: 02:17 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

三月 20, 2008 - 04:12 下午Calls of the WildWhat a week. I'm ready for a break. So this is going to be short.
I know some will consider me a traitor to the cause, but I assure you, my bullish outfit is (a) temporary and (b) not complete. I've still got a variety of puts, mostly in oil-related items. But I've accumulated a lot of calls today, since I think we could be nice for a nice-sized bounce.
I will note at this point I have no index positions of any kind, either bullish or bearish. I am too uncertain about the near-term direction of indexes to take any position.
However, as a change of pace, here are the items on which I bought calls today.

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Happy Easter, everyone..............I imagine I'll be quiet until Monday. Bye!

Posted: 04:12 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

二月 04, 2009 - 01:14 下午Financial Time MachineIn late 1992, when Bank of America's stock price was the same as it is today..........

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• Bill Clinton had recently been elected, but George H.W. Bush was still in office;
• There was no such thing as an Internet browser;
• It would be five years before Steve Jobs would set foot inside Apple's buildings again

In the spring of 1968, when Citi's stock price was the same as it is today..........

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• Lyndon Johnson was the President;
• The most primitive handheld calculator was three years off;
• The future author of Slope was still a chubby baby

Posted: 01:14 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

十二月 09, 2008 - 05:18 下午A Murky, Muddy, MessBy chance I saw someone was asking how often I update my watch lists. The answer is: constantly, and in real-time. You can pretty much count on those lists representing my holdings at any given moment.
As for the market, I find this graph of the T-Bill rate fascinating, since it shows the continued willingness of the investing public to accept 0% returns instead of risking it on just about anything else.

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On the one hand, there have been some really beefy returns on battered issues over the past week or so. I've taken profits here and there, but I've still got many long positions; here is one of them, which is spite of today's drubbing overall, held its own decently well.

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At the same time, many issues have pushed themselves to the point where they are attractive shorts for the umpteenth time. As regular readers know, I bought my first FAZ ever for the first time today, and it wasn't a small position, either. Here's a good example of why I think the financials are heading for some weakness:

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I continued to watch the EUR/USD very closely. This has been surprisingly strong, although it still has not broken out yet.

hefeiddd

I continued to watch the EUR/USD very closely. This has been surprisingly strong, although it still has not broken out yet.

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I have done quite well with the ES over the past couple of days. There is a bunch of trading from 895 to 915 that I think is going to act as a barrier to much upside action. I've trimmed my short position to 10 contracts on the ES, and I've tightened up my stop. There aren't any big economic reports until Thursday, but at that point you'll basically have four big days in a row packed with reports.

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Take note of how abruptly the Dow turned yesterday once it reached the 23.6% level (shown here in bold); the bulls are eventually going to push their way higher, but not after getting severely bloodied. It's going to be a really slow, tough, ugly slog higher.

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I've noticed many indices and ETFs are bumping against their 50 day moving averages. EEM is a very heavily-traded example (and notice the doji harami pattern).