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MACD俱乐部»论坛 › ◇ 技术分析区 ◇ › 〖期货技术交流〗 › 一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手
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楼主: hefeiddd

一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-26 17:55 | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-26 17:56 | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-26 17:57 | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-26 17:57 | 显示全部楼层
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Tomorrow morning's GDP report (8:30 a.m. EST) is going to be vitally important. That will probably dictate whether "the fall" begins Thursday or if we're going to have to stomach a push higher (much the same can be said of Friday morning's unemployment figures). The past two days have been no fun at all, but I think relief is coming soon.

Posted: 05:37 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-26 17:58 | 显示全部楼层
七月 30, 2008 - 07:20 上午BAC is BackThis, to me, is a beautiful graph. Contingent stop set at $34.50 (today's high).


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Posted: 07:20 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-26 17:59 | 显示全部楼层
七月 24, 2008 - 10:18 上午BAC Up the TruckA lot of people over the past few days have been buying Bank of America. I think these people must be clinically insane. I, on the other hand, am simply piling on more and more puts into this position. This chart is tres magnifique.

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Posted: 10:18 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

七月 21, 2008 - 07:10 上午Baby Got BACWell, BAC jumped this morning. As typical for financial firms, the inspiration was that its earnings were non-horrible. Looking at this graph, I cannot help but think of the downside opportunities. Obviously the firm is in a broad, general downturn, and the last four trading sessions have created a massive bear market rally, adding more than 50% to this stock.
I got stopped out of this position at the opening bell, but I am confident enough in the downside potential of this stock in the coming weeks to re-establish my position.

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A reminder - I am on "vacation" (I put it in quotes, since I've been doing a lot of catching up ever since I got here), thus my blog comments and entries will be far more sparse than normal. Tawk amongst yerselves.


Posted: 07:10 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-26 17:59 | 显示全部楼层
七月 18, 2008 - 01:18 下午Last Post of the WeekI'm going to hang it up early today. It's been another great week. I'm getting ready to leave for a week-long trip with my family. I'll probably manage to do one post a day during my vacation. Until then, I leave you with these charts, which I consider an interesting fount of ideas. Thank you, and enjoy a pleasant weekend!

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-26 18:01 | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-26 18:01 | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-26 18:02 | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-26 18:03 | 显示全部楼层
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See you on Monday..........

Posted: 01:18 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-26 18:03 | 显示全部楼层
七月 15, 2008 - 08:13 下午Dance on VaselineI haven't mentioned my book in a while, so I'll do so here, since a lot of readers might not know about it - - - if you have an interest in ProphetCharts (which I use to compose this blog) or in my approach to technical analysis, you might want to check out Chart Your Way to Profits. Look through the reviews on Amazon, and I think you'll find most people really enjoy it. OK, that's the end of the plug. On with today's videos
         
         
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-26 18:04 | 显示全部楼层
七月 08, 2008 - 04:10 下午Slope OperaMy "theme" has been repeated so often, it risks getting tiresome, but I'll say it again: energy shorts and agriculture shorts (with index option day-trades thrown in for good measure in either direction). It has served me well recently.
Even though yesterday showed the potential for "The Bounce", it sputtered very quickly. Today, however, a push higher held, and in some cases, the push was quite substantial. The Dow's 152 point rise was actually one of the tamer ones:


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Since we're in a bear market, I really, really like rallies, because they give me new opportunities. The giant question, as always, is this: does the rally represent a one-day wonder, or is this simply the start of a very substantial countertrend, like we saw in mid-March through mid-May? I don't know. The IWM, shown below, doesn't hit really serious resistance until around $71.


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I was excited this morning to see how quickly oil-related issues were plunging. Today's hammer pattern implies we're going to have a bit of a bounce short-term, but I think that for at least the medium-term, the high prices in crude were marked a few days ago.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-26 18:05 | 显示全部楼层
I was excited this morning to see how quickly oil-related issues were plunging. Today's hammer pattern implies we're going to have a bit of a bounce short-term, but I think that for at least the medium-term, the high prices in crude were marked a few days ago.


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In my IRA account, a couple of days ago, I went very bullish, putting all my cash into QLD, DDM, DUG, UYG, and UWM. Yesterday, July 7th, DUG's strength compensated for the weakness in the other four positions. Today, however, all five positions were up handsomely, particularly UYG, which benefited from the bounce I've been expecting from the world of investment banks.


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I was amused to see a headling that AMBAC had "surged over 50%" today. Yes, that's very true.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-26 18:05 | 显示全部楼层
I was amused to see a headling that AMBAC had "surged over 50%" today. Yes, that's very true.


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But it's important to keep such things in context!


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My puts on the $XAU had a decent day, but I am looking for much, much lower price levels from here.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-26 18:06 | 显示全部楼层
My puts on the $XAU had a decent day, but I am looking for much, much lower price levels from here.


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With such a strong day for the bulls, it was particularly heartening to see one of my favorite put positions (and one of my largest ones) take it a bit on the chin. Clearly a break below last week's lows would spell great things for this position.


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But even more favorite than that is the chart I keep foisting on you - ICE. It went up today some, but that's OK with me. This pattern is uber-powerful
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-26 18:07 | 显示全部楼层
But even more favorite than that is the chart I keep foisting on you - ICE. It went up today some, but that's OK with me. This pattern is uber-powerful.


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I bought some IBM puts today, although I've got fairly tight stops on it. It really depends on if this rally has legs or not.


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My short on RJF was already in place, but it's pretty clear to me from this chart that, in spite of a 11% lift in the price of the stock, the general direction is going to be down.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-26 18:07 | 显示全部楼层
My short on RJF was already in place, but it's pretty clear to me from this chart that, in spite of a 11% lift in the price of the stock, the general direction is going to be down.


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I was going to buy a bunch of BAC and COF stock this morning, but I didn't have time. Ah, well. It's no surprise to see such a battered issue have a spring higher. This is the largest rise BAC has seen in months.


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The overinflation of OIH has definitely been let out to some degree. Looking at these fan lines, noodling around in the 200-210 range seems most likely.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-26 18:08 | 显示全部楼层
The overinflation of OIH has definitely been let out to some degree. Looking at these fan lines, noodling around in the 200-210 range seems most likely.


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Here are a couple of short ideas. MTL.........


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......and STT, which seems to be retracting back toward its broken trendline.




......and STT, which seems to be retracting back toward its broken trendline.


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Tomorrow is also going to be busy for me. ThinkOrSwim users, please note I will be doing the "chat" session at 2 p.m. PST, 4 p.m. CST, 5 p.m. EST, so please join me there. I have no idea what I'll talk about, but I'm sure I'll think of something good by then!

Posted: 04:10 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-26 18:09 | 显示全部楼层
六月 23, 2008 - 01:51 下午I'm Keeping George in My ThoughtsI received a lot of nice emails about my weepy post regarding George Carlin's passing today. I appreciate those. Sometimes people would rather share thoughts privately than publicly, and I completely understand that.
Please be reminded that I'm traveling on Tuesday, so there will be no post until after the market's closing. I'll be nervously fidgeting in the air, not even benefiting from seeing how the market opens. I'll have a brief intra-market-day layover to check on things. With the Fed announcing on Wednesday, hopefully Tuesday will be sedate.
I'm pretty excited about the prospect of IWM breaking the blue line you see below. I am getting re-enamored with the Russell as a trading instrument.


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Whereas I'm sick and tired of energy. This has been a boondoggle. I think I'm just going to stay away from OIH for a good, long time. Maybe crude's oil to $500 a barrel. Who knows. I'm tired of guessing.


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Just a few quick ideas to chew on tonight. CSX looks interesting; it violating its resistance somewhat, but appears to be turning back down.
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