一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

十月 21, 2008 - 05:08 下午Days of Miracle and WonderAlthough the NQ tumbled shortly after the close, it seems that people have embraced AAPL's earnings after all. No matter. A gap up tomorrow would actually be welcome, since I think the NQ is very vulnerable. Between ES and NQ, I think NQ is a much better short.
Whether the market goes up or down, though, I'm positioned for either. Please check out my watch lists on the right column, and you can see the hodgepodge of positions I've got for either direction. Not to say that it's exactly 50/50; I tend to position by "big boys" (index puts) one way or the other, and right now it's bearish. The desire, of course, would be to see the failure of the symmetric triangle in a manner something like this:


One thing I find kind of fascinating is that, over the past seven trading sessions, as things have calmed down, the flight to quality has really dissipated. Look at the $IRX graph below. Wouldn't it sort of make sense for this to fall away from the blue horizontal line at some point very soon?

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By the sake token, the $VIX seems relatively tame in the low 50s (who'd have ever thought the low 50s would be "calm"?)

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I haven't been going crazy with index puts; I am using the more conservative ETF instruments such as SDS, DXD, and QID. I bought some DXD today based on the DIA bumping up against the overhead resistance at around 93:

hefeiddd

I haven't been going crazy with index puts; I am using the more conservative ETF instruments such as SDS, DXD, and QID. I bought some DXD today based on the DIA bumping up against the overhead resistance at around 93:

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I am a very "weak hand" with my DUG long and OIH puts. The dollar has come very far, very fast, and a plunging dollar would obviously make oil more expensive in a big hurry.

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In the same light, I am watching the ags for a bullish bounce. As you can see from my long positions and my call positions, I am prepared for commodities to push higher; you may be surprised at this, but I'm following Wheat - of all things - very closely these days. I could see this retracing to just under 700.

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My love affair with $UTIL is far from over. I love this pattern.

hefeiddd

My love affair with $UTIL is far from over. I love this pattern.

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I therefore own a lot of SDP. If this were a "normal" stock, I think you'd agree it's very bullish-looking.

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So my portfolio is very schizo right now; I'm trying to be positioned for a big fall (short term) and a big rise (weeks/months timeframe). Here are a few long positions which could easiily be stopped out, but are there just in case we have a meaningful, sustained push higher:

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hefeiddd

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As for shorts, I am far more comfortable with these graphs. A very, very strong market could wreck these positions, but it would have to be a real sea-change to do so.

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hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

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My old complaint remains - - I haven't read comments in days! - - but maybe I'll get a chance to glance at them tonight. Thanks, as always, for paying me a visit.

hefeiddd

十月 20, 2008 - 01:49 下午Across-the-Board RallyWell! We haven't seen one of those in a while! And what I mean by that is...........a rally without some bizarre exogenous force behind it. The market simply went up. There wasn't any giant new U.S. bailout. There wasn't a dollar-for-dollar tax credit for those buying stock. The market simply. Went. Up.
It was a wash for me, because I've got a bunch o' longs and a bunch o' shorts. So it was actually pretty boring. The not-so-boring question is what's going to happen the rest of this week. One camp says we bottomed last week, and today is simply the shape of things to come. Another camp says we're going to bottom soon, but not before a cataclysmic, 2000-point plunge on the Dow. Quite a contrast of views! The $SPX, shown below in daily form, shows we in day #9 of utter uncertainty:

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There are reasons to believe the big rally today was simply another shorting opportunity. Look at the DIA, which simply rallied to a Fibonacci level (almost to the penny). We are still well beneath the major broken support line.

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The $COMPQ is less clear. On one hand, like the DIA, we've rallied to a retracement line. On the other, there's not a heck of a lot holding this back from pushing to the next line higher, which is over 200 points away.

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Whether or not the famed symmetrical triangle is still intact depends on how you draw it. The smallish triangle, whose upper line roughly matched the lower line with respect to time, was clearly broken today. You could use an alternate representation like the one below to see if the market confines itself thus:

hefeiddd

Whether or not the famed symmetrical triangle is still intact depends on how you draw it. The smallish triangle, whose upper line roughly matched the lower line with respect to time, was clearly broken today. You could use an alternate representation like the one below to see if the market confines itself thus:

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As for my old buddy the $UTIL, I bought some SDP today, since - - best case - - I don't think the $UTIL is going to be able to push past the retracement at about 414. This is a very substantial topping pattern.

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Earlier today I suggested buying DUG and shorting OIH. Turns out that was premature. I lost a few thousands on my DUG trade (which got stopped out, obviously). I still like the looks of an OIH short trade, so I'll be watching it closely Tuesday. Judging from the $OIX, I don't think this particular index will have an easy time getting above about $625.

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Please take a good look at the right column - - scroll up and down. There are all kinds of new goodies in there. As always, there are the watch lists, which you can scrutinize for ideas. There's a new way to sign up for daily emails to get a briefing on Slope posts. You can also easily get Slope in an RSS feeder now. And so on.
I have been completely out of the comments section all day, but I'll try to get in there to see what ideas people are bandying about. I'm not sure if I'll do a substantive post later; like I said, today felt pretty quiet, which doesn't lend itself to doing a dozen posts like I sometimes do. If nothing else, I'll see you folks in the morning!

Posted: 01:49 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

The powerful move late Friday, all day Monday, and very early today offered some fantastic new shorting opportunities. I bought a bunch of FXP first thing this morning (the ultrashort on China).

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As the aforementioned comment from me plainly indicated, I was ga-ga about shorting OIH early today. What convinced me what that chart after chart of individual components looked basically doomed. My rather manic suggestion was offered at almost exactly the peak as it was nearing 115. Here are a couple of persuasive charts pertaining to what I believe will be a continued plunge in oil-related stocks.

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I've tinted in most of the charts tonight to show the very significant resistance levels that were hit early this morning. Here's the DIA:

hefeiddd

I've tinted in most of the charts tonight to show the very significant resistance levels that were hit early this morning. Here's the DIA:

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And here, in turn, is the DJ30 itself. Notice the circle I've put on the former supporting trendline. That, to me, is about the highest the $INDU can go. So if, over the coming days, we pushed up toward 10,000-10,250, don't be throwing the schadenfreude my way. I will absolutely take another 1,000 points on the Dow in stride from these levels.

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The Transports, badly damaged last week, had the same phenomenon.

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Everyone hear knows my tale of woe about the SDP. Well, it was time to make good again. I bought a very large SDP position first thing this morning, and it's deeply in the green already. I tinted the area where we were early today, and I have big dreams for this position. And, for the love of Jesus, I'm not going to sell it until it's at least in the mid-250s.

hefeiddd

Everyone hear knows my tale of woe about the SDP. Well, it was time to make good again. I bought a very large SDP position first thing this morning, and it's deeply in the green already. I tinted the area where we were early today, and I have big dreams for this position. And, for the love of Jesus, I'm not going to sell it until it's at least in the mid-250s.

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Trades just don't come any easier than shorting the $NDX first thing this morning. They just don't. Look at this gorgeous chart. A perfect gap fill. A surge to both a retracement level and the underside of a fan line. As John McCain might say, "This, my friends, is a perfect chart."

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My postulate that the S&P would quickly surge to the 1050-1075 range caused financial media around the world to sit up and take notice. Actually, no, that's not true. Only a few people here did. All the same, with a high of 1067 (based on around-the-clock trading via the @ES0812), I'd say I nailed that one quite nicely. The chart beneath is the $SPX (which trades a mere 1/4 of the time the ES does), but you can see via the tinted circle where the high was nailed on the underbelly of the former support channel.

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I keep an eye on the FX markets since they have a very meaningful relationship with our own equity markets. The explosive surge in the dollar is going to settle dramatically. I am a long-term dollar bull, but for the short term, I think the dollar is going to ease back.

hefeiddd

I keep an eye on the FX markets since they have a very meaningful relationship with our own equity markets. The explosive surge in the dollar is going to settle dramatically. I am a long-term dollar bull, but for the short term, I think the dollar is going to ease back.

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And now, for your viewing pleasure..........(Slope denizens will probably be able to get the joke):

Posted: 04:32 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

十月 07, 2008 - 07:56 下午Con DescensionThe social fabric is starting to tear. It's shocking and sad to start to read about the suicides, murder/suicides, and other violence that's starting to take place prompted by the nationwide meltdown. I imagine it's going to get worse over the years. Indeed, I think the social rage is going to reach a point where one or more of the super-rich execs (Richard Fuld or someone like that) will get shot down or otherwise killed. I'm not suggesting or condoning it; I am simply speculating that things are going to get so out of hand, that's how bad it's going to get. If I were one of these folks that had made hundreds of millions, I would probably leave the country and never go back. They're going to be hated. The little "shame, shame!" sessions we've seen in Congress the past couple of days are just the beginning.
I've reached the point where I've stopped listening to the bottom-pickers, including myself. I went long the market yesterday in a big way. I made out very well on my index calls, which I got out of this morning. Those calls would be huge losers (obviously) if I had simply hung on. As profitable as it has been, I'm starting to kind of hate this market. I feel like I'm a person who wants to catch fish, and there just happen to be bombers overhead dropping explosives into the pond. I'm able to get the fish, but the way I'm doing so is causing huge, horrible damage, plus it's terrifying.
You've probably seen, as I have, how economic cycles inflate different asset classes, and the last one to inflate is commodities. That's certainly what has happened recently. Remember all the hoo-ha this summer over expensive oil, expensive wheat, expensive gold, and expensive everything else? The air has come out of that really fast. I think we're heading for $50-$55 crude oil within a matter of months, if not weeks.

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What about wheat? Can you say "head and shoulders"?

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The collapse that is taking place in equity prices is obviously shocking. For goodness sake, Ford is at 1986 prices, and there's almost nothing in the way of support between here and the bottom in 1982.

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General Motors is even worse; Richard Nixon was in office when prices were at these levels.

hefeiddd

General Motors is even worse; Richard Nixon was in office when prices were at these levels.

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Some charts almost defy belief. Just look at the collapse here once support was taken out.

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I have found technical analysis to be more helpful than ever during the collapse. Notice how BA is obediently staying beneath its broken channel.

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Some folks have asked about GOOG (down over 25 points today, and down nearly 60% from its high). It is at a major resistance level here. Break it, and down we go.

hefeiddd

Some folks have asked about GOOG (down over 25 points today, and down nearly 60% from its high). It is at a major resistance level here. Break it, and down we go.

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IBM is likewise at a pretty major resistance point (a fan line).

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XRX is sort of like AIG in the respect that it penetrated a really obvious support level and has been sailing downward ever since.

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Speaking of (thin) support - check out $CZH. It is right at the lowest fan line. It's either bounce or break at this point.

hefeiddd

Speaking of (thin) support - check out $CZH. It is right at the lowest fan line. It's either bounce or break at this point.

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Looking at the DIA, here again we have strong support and very little beneath. The case for a bounce is strong. The case for a crash, if this is broken, is just as strong.

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Here's a different view of the same market. A crash, I think, would take us to between 7,750 and 8,400, depending on what line provided support.

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Don't even get me started on the SDP ($UTIL) trade. Talk about money left on the table. It has fully realized its H&S potential.

hefeiddd

Don't even get me started on the SDP ($UTIL) trade. Talk about money left on the table. It has fully realized its H&S potential.

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Commodities look like they've entered a major bear market; I would short any major bounce here like nobody's business.

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The charts just keep coming! The NASDAQ Composite has the same story as the Dow 30. We're at support. There's nothing but air underneath. If we don't bounce (pretty much immediately), it's crash time.

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I'm very short OIH. I have ambitious target.

hefeiddd

I'm very short OIH. I have ambitious target.

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The Russell looks like it has very strong support at the tinted area shown.

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OK, that's enough .Off to bed. Tomorrow we either bounce big or head into a free-fall. I'm as nervous as ever, but comforted at least by the guidance the charts provide.

Posted: 07:56 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

九月 30, 2008 - 03:03 下午Ample Parking Day or NightMy "two hours of sleep a night" bit is getting to me, so this won't be an especially long post. Let me just hit the highlights.
First, I'm intrigued by the newfound strength in the $IRX. It is very near the top of its range since the 9/15 gap, which suggests a (relative) sense of calm and ease is returning. Now, with a VIX nearly at 40 I realize that people aren't kicking back in their lounge chairs. But, let's face it, the Dow shooting up nearly 500 points probably calmed a lot of very nervous bulls out there, and as I've said repeatedly, a big surge is precisely what we bears need to see.

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I'm not optimistic that we're going to get another turkey shoot where the VIX is at 18 and everyone thinks a full-blown bull market is back. But give me another day that's similar to today, and it'll be time to load the rifles again.
I've see a lot of smart folks pushing for a bull market in gold. I don't get it. Gold looks really sick to me. I have a reasonable number of bearish positions in gold, although I did close out my bearish silver positions today in order to wait for a hopefully better entry price.

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As for oil, this is a bit of a tough one. The topping pattern is pretty huge, but the prospect of a large, very time-consuming right shoulder on this pattern is very real. It could be months before we see a real collapse. So I trimmed way back on my energy-related shorts, taking profits and stocking up on cash for our next golden opportunity. (Those following me onwill recall that on the 19th I declared it the "selling opportunity of the year." Boy, was I right about that!) Anyway, if the $OIX got back to, say, 750-775, that would be pretty intriguing.

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Looking at the equity markets, I'd say they easily covered at least half the ground they need to cover in order to create some great bearish opportunities. I actually got into a respectably-sized SPX put position near the end of today, although I might be early on that. I was dead spot-on getting QQQQ calls last night (and, thank God, getting out of my index puts yesterday), although, as is so often the case with my bullish positions, I sold them way too soon.

hefeiddd

Looking at the equity markets, I'd say they easily covered at least half the ground they need to cover in order to create some great bearish opportunities. I actually got into a respectably-sized SPX put position near the end of today, although I might be early on that. I was dead spot-on getting QQQQ calls last night (and, thank God, getting out of my index puts yesterday), although, as is so often the case with my bullish positions, I sold them way too soon.

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I likewise did a lot of trimming in my commodity positions. The $CRX is hugely broken, but there could be a substantial retracement at these levels.

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The view from the $XAU is a head-scratcher. $130 seems to be an important support level. I think it's possible we just noodle around this area for a while. There's a pretty big range from 130 to 155, and as you can see for 2006 and most of 2007, XAU just boinged back and forth within that range.

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I've tinted in green the progress QQQQ made today back to its retracement line. Like I said, we're a little more than halfway there is just one trading session. I think what would goose us up to the victory line would be the passage of the government failout.