一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Apple remains one of my favorite puts, particularly in light of its relative weakness to the broad NASDAQ today.

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CNQ is just one example of the formerly hot ag-related securities that are softening up.

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I mentioned $250 as a key breaking point for FSLR (which has fallen am amazing 65 points in just a couple of weeks). We're very close.

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Both Baidu (BIDU) and Google (GOOG) are also tantalizing at these levels.

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Baker Hughes (BHI) is a pretty sweet short with a stop at $90.

hefeiddd

Baker Hughes (BHI) is a pretty sweet short with a stop at $90.

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The broad OIH has had an amazing run this year. A true tumble in crude might bring this down to the $150 level.

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I don't know if I've ever trade OSTK before, but I entered a new position in it today (short).

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Another new position for me is VMI, which is forming a broadening top.

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I also entered AGN today based on its push higher today, since the risk is lower at these levels. My stop is at $58.

hefeiddd

I also entered AGN today based on its push higher today, since the risk is lower at these levels. My stop is at $58.

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CERN is falling away nicely from the horizontal line you see here.

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And Fastenal (FAST) was a new short for me today, again based on the lower-risk entry point. There is a lot of resistance in the $50-$52 range.

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Finally, a couple of steel-related issues on the short side.

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While I am encouraged at crude oil's weakness, I gotta say, if Friday isn't a down day on the indexes, I'm going to be pretty disappointed with this week. Today's firmness in equities are disquieting, although at least a portion of it was lost in the final 90 minutes of the trading day. See ya Friday!

Posted: 02:38 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

五月 19, 2008 - 03:03 下午Nerve-Wracking






This chart still intrigues me. If we break 170 hard, this could get exciting again.

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Transports made a new never-before-seen-in-history high today, but gave up virtually all of it. Check out the shooting star on this baby.

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Pitifully, I remember the days when I was short OIH and had 192 as my stop loss. Here we are at nearly $220. It's getting awfully close to that Fib fan, don't you think?

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Speaking of shooting stars, here's another beaut - - the S&P 500. Don't get me wrong; the markets aren't acting bearish. But this bull is sure looking weary.

hefeiddd

Speaking of shooting stars, here's another beaut - - the S&P 500. Don't get me wrong; the markets aren't acting bearish. But this bull is sure looking weary.

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I'm the unfortunate holding of DUG right now, and it's been pathetic. We're scraping the bottom of that sloping support line, as you can see. And the explosion in volume over the past few months is amazing.

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Now on to a few equity shorts. ABT is pushing up against a major broken trendline.

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Albemarle (I have no idea what they do, and couldn't care less.......) is in a similar pattern.

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Bottom-fishing is dangerous, but there are a handful of stocks that look intriguing for a bullish play. IFC is one of them.

hefeiddd

Bottom-fishing is dangerous, but there are a handful of stocks that look intriguing for a bullish play. IFC is one of them.

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Akamai (AKAM) is really interesting, its price approaching two important levels of resistance.

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And our buddy AAPL, whose puts made some people some green today (and I got a few thank-yous on that; you're certainly welcome).

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CELG could be in the early throes of a nice drop, with a clean stop around $66.

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I've got puts on Coach (COH), which also has a clean stop around $38.

hefeiddd

I've got puts on Coach (COH), which also has a clean stop around $38.

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Solar stocks aren't looking too great these days, and my puts had a nice little uptick today on First Solar.

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I'm not sure what's in store for investment banks, but I've put my neck out on puts for one of them - - Morgan Stanley. This isn't a bad head and shoulders pattern.

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Google was relatively weak all day, even when the market was very strong. I've got a stop on this one at $592.

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Finally, Lindsay, which I don't think I've ever mentioned before. I shorted this one earlier today.



Finally, Lindsay, which I don't think I've ever mentioned before. I shorted this one earlier today.

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Suffice it to say I ended the day more cheerful than I was a few hours before. I hope to hell things start to turn around. Otherwise, I'm going to have to make more flying contraptions.

Posted: 03:03 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

五月 14, 2008 - 07:15 上午Strong Stocks, Weak OilThis morning's CPI number gave the bulls a sigh of relief, and the markets opened solidly higher. As of this writing (only 20 minutes into the open), the IWM has solidly closed the gap it created back on January 4th. By the time you read this, it may have soared past that horizontal resistance line. The Dow is already up into the triple digits. Fun, fun, fun.

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By contrast, gold and (more so...) oil are weaker as of this moment. I guess the feeling that's starting to spread is that if oil falls, that will be a great catalyst for equities to explode higher. In other words, expensive oil is the only thing holding them back. I am thus highly concentrated in oil-related shorts and avoiding index plays.

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Posted: 07:15 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

五月 07, 2008 - 05:38 下午Nice.I haven't plugged my book, , in a while, so - there - I just did. If you use ProphetCharts, you should seriously consider it. I think you'll find the to be overwhelmingly positive. Check it out!
All right, on to the markets. The best news to me today wasn't whacking 200 points off the Dow or the big surge in my portfolios (which, ahem, my even suggesting that was a good sign, eh?) The best news was the divergence in where crude oil is heading versus where all the oil-related stocks are heading. In other words, we've got crude oil which went on to its umpteenth never-before-seen in human history high price............

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And yet oil-related stocks, which to date have wallowed around in bathtubs full of gold coins during this entire melt-up, didn't have the power to participate anymore.

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So..........perversely.......my position in the double-inverse oil & gas fund actually had a great day!

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My point is that my abundance of oil and commodity related items is well-positioned to benefit from this divergence. Because if they fall on a strong day for crude, can you imagine the damage waiting for them when crude falls? (And, yes, it will fall; nothing goes up forever).
Likewise, my $XAU position did pretty well. The formation for 2008 is very similar to the smaller one spanning October-December 2007 (which didn't amount to anything), but a break from this pattern downward would easily send the $XAU to the mid-$150s.

hefeiddd

My point is that my abundance of oil and commodity related items is well-positioned to benefit from this divergence. Because if they fall on a strong day for crude, can you imagine the damage waiting for them when crude falls? (And, yes, it will fall; nothing goes up forever).
Likewise, my $XAU position did pretty well. The formation for 2008 is very similar to the smaller one spanning October-December 2007 (which didn't amount to anything), but a break from this pattern downward would easily send the $XAU to the mid-$150s.

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And - tip of the hat to Jana - China is finally starting to get kicked around again. It was the best down day in seven weeks. A monster bearish engulfing pattern. A break below $212 (far away, I confess) would be highly destructive to this index.

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I've been contending recently the $XBD had peaked out. For now, that seems to be the case. Just look at that sweet set of descending scallops.

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And - perhaps my favorite pattern of all - the $MSH is obediently staying beneath that not-quite horizontal line you see below. A fully materialized head and shoulders breakdown would send this at least a hundred points lower.

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I entered a put position on the S&P relatively early today, and it's nicely in the green. Perhaps 1423 is as high as this retracement is capable of carrying the market. I sure hope so.

hefeiddd

I entered a put position on the S&P relatively early today, and it's nicely in the green. Perhaps 1423 is as high as this retracement is capable of carrying the market. I sure hope so.

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Due to (of course) a lack of time, I can only offer the following charts without any commentary. I'll let the lines do the talking for me. These are some favorite shorts now.

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hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

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Good night, and may the rest of the week pan out even halfway as well as today!
Posted: 05:38 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

四月 29, 2008 - 04:46 下午The Big KahunaWell, as I've been saying, tomorrow (Wednesday) is going to be huge. An hour before the opening bell, we get the early GDP report (subject to revision - twice - in the near future). With so many people saying we're not in a recession, it'll be interesting to see what the data indicates. Then, at 2:15 EST, the Fed does their announcement. Every character, comma, and space is going to be interpreted to death.
From a charting perspective, it's impossible to say what will happen except that it'll be big. I have only one index position - - a fairly large-sized put - - but I'm definitely keeping a lot of cash on the sidelines just in case of some (God forbid) bullish blowout.


I got rid of my NDX puts today, because I really don't like the action here. I know that $MSH looks good, but $NDX is what I had puts on, and this chart worries me.


Added to which, the $COMPQ is exhibiting a pattern that has had very bad (for bears) results in the past few years.


On a brighter note - - and I actually had a pretty good day - - my dozens of shorts in oil are doing great. OIH has only lost about 6% of its value since its peak, but I really like how this is shaping up.


Likewise, my double-inverse ETF on oil, DUG, had a good day too. I bought these on the day where the low was made.

hefeiddd

Likewise, my double-inverse ETF on oil, DUG, had a good day too. I bought these on the day where the low was made.


My puts on MDR also did well, with the stock falling nearly 9% today. This is another nice example of an attempt at a bullish breakout that failed, similar to ISRG.


And.........finally!.......my puts on BHI are shaping up. I like the way the price is moving away from that trendline.

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One other favorite of mine is GENZ, which ever-so-slowly is building what could be a terrific head and shoulders pattern. If complete, this could take GENZ down to the low 50s.


That's it from me. I'll be watching IWM like a hawk at 5:30 a.m. my time. I offer something that I usually cannot - - and guarantee - - and it is this: April 30th is going to be really, really interesting.

Posted: 04:46 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

四月 25, 2008 - 05:46 下午Yo, Godot!Let me start by saying that this tax rebate that Bush was yakking about all day is going to stimulate only one thing: the deficit. The notion that this political gimmick is going to magically turn the sinking economy around is absurd. Those checks are going to be as potent as the Gerald Ford W.I.N. buttons from three decades ago.
Now, there has been something very weird going on with IWM volume. I was going to mention it a couple of days ago, but I shrugged it off. But it's going on long enough that I have to point it out. That way - - the volume is alternating! High one day. Low the next. High one day. Low the next. It's almost a perfect oscillating pattern. I have no conclusions about this. It's just...........weird. The volume graph is starting to resemble a comb!


One area where steady volume is not a problem is crude oil. This market pushed toward the $120 zone today. It's always something. This time is was a U.S. ship shooting a missile or something. God knows. It seems almost any news pushes crude oil higher these days.

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Although OIH was, in turn, higher, it isn't making new highs like crude itself. I am very bearishly positioned with respect to oil. It's either going to break very soon, or else I'm going to have a lot of stop-loss orders on my hands.

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One of my many positions in this area is BHI, mashed up against its broken trendline.

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SLB has surged very strong for most of 2008. This pattern is more speculative.

hefeiddd

SLB has surged very strong for most of 2008. This pattern is more speculative.

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And, with all due respect to beanie (and you can take that however you want), I've got puts on two major solar stocks. Sunpower......

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.....and heavyweight First Solar.........So I can already tell you next week, if FSLR has blowout earnings and I get stopped out, beanie will have 57 posts about how right he was. If the stock plunges, he'll be nowhere to be found. Count on it.

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In spite of the markets (irritating) strength today, I still see equities as fundamentally broken at this point.

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The S&P 500, on which I own puts, is mushed right up against the underbelly of its broken channel as well as its descending trendline. That's on top of the psychologically important 1400 level.

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The Russell 2000, on which I also own puts, is in a similar pattern.

hefeiddd

The Russell 2000, on which I also own puts, is in a similar pattern.

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And the NASDAQ is banging against its 25% line on its channel. Now this one I'm more nervous about, since it is sporting a not-too-terrible inverted head and shoulders pattern.

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But, as I mentioned yesterday, I draw some comfort from the formidable bearish pattern on the $MSH (whose options, regrettably, are so thinly traded as to not be worth pursuing).

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Apple had a strong weak, but I have reason to believe this candlestick today presages a drop next week.

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And, in my opinion, IBM blown gassed its way about as high as it's going to go against that trendline; I've got a stop here at 125.

hefeiddd

And, in my opinion, IBM blown gassed its way about as high as it's going to go against that trendline; I've got a stop here at 125.

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Lastly, the $XBD index has encouraged me to buy puts on investment banks, which have recovered sharply since the BSC debacle five weeks ago. I've got positions in Lehman......

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.........Goldman........

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.........JP Morgan..........

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.......and another "Morgan", this one Stanley.........

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It's been weeks and weeks since we've had a juicy, consistent bearish hammering of equities. Oh, I miss those days. But I remain confident that one day soon the bear will be back. He'd better. Otherwise this blog is going to get pretty dour!

Posted: 05:46 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

四月 22, 2008 - 02:17 下午Semi-SatisfiedToday was a pretty good day. Ninety minutes before the close, it was a really good day. However, IWM and OIH recovered to some degree. In spite of that, we still whacked over 100 points off the Dow 30 and enjoyed a decent drop in oil-related items. So I'm  not complaining.
I've removed the "intra-Fib" retracements on the IWM, since I'm frankly not sure where they belong. I'd rather not be basing decisions on levels I'm not positive are valid. So we remain between the very broad ~64 to ~72 range on the IWM, somewhat near the upper range. We had a drop today on the best volume we've seen in about a month. It goes without saying that we need to stay below last Friday's highs to have a prayer in this market.

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The Dow dropped away from the psychologically important 13,000 level. I've drawn a red line at 12,900 which seems to be the neckline (as it were) for this pattern. There's a heck of a lot of support between 11,800 and 12,800 - - a thousand points is a lot to chop through.

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I've expressed concern several times about the Transports. This pattern isn't exactly acting like a launching point. It's still intact, but a drop beneath about 4,800 would render it impotent.

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The NASDAQ Composite (which is going to get affected strongly after tomorrow's AAPL earnings) is likewise beneath its ~2,420 horizontal line. We've also got the advantage of being at the upper end of that channel you see.

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I confess to being obsessed with OIH these days. In spite of a record close (yet again) for crude oil, we actually fell more than a percentage point here. As you can see, OIH is a good 40 points above any really serious support. But, God almighty, this thing has a lot of bulls behind it.

hefeiddd

confess to being obsessed with OIH these days. In spite of a record close (yet again) for crude oil, we actually fell more than a percentage point here. As you can see, OIH is a good 40 points above any really serious support. But, God almighty, this thing has a lot of bulls behind it.

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I've got a decent-sized position on the Russell 2000 (and the NASDAQ 100) indexes. Around 725 or so is the extremely important line in the sand.

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There are plenty of stocks which are tempting to short simply because they are really "expensive." I put that in quotes, because shorting these momentum plays is dangerous. I have done it in a few cases, but usually I'm a little sensible and avoid stuff like CLF....

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.......and PBR. All the same, I wouldn't be surprised (one day, one day) to see these get crushed. They could remain in a full bull pattern, but even a "easing back" to the trendline could blow 30% to 40% off of these.

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I did buy puts in NLY. I usually don't go for such cheap stocks, but this one is pretty alluring.