一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Wednesday, January 28, 2009Analisa GBPUSD Longterm
TF1H



Pndgn aku tuk longterm maybe DT kt rectangle tu..2 line horizontal Resistance tu sm je mcm kt GJ..2 Fibo yg bertindihan antara satu sm len..Sbg Resistance aku..Ada BEarish Divergence pd RSI & MACD..Wish me luck.. :)


Posted by neozero at 3:15 PM 0 comments Links to this post






Analisa GBPJPY Longterm.


Analisa aku tuk longterm..Maybe leh g kt area Rectangle tu..Waiting for confirmation..Patient is the key kata Karmo..:)

Update : TF4H

Kt bwh nie 2 line hitam tu sbg Resistance aku.. :) .Stlh aku mengira Risk:Reward:Ratio..Aku amek kptsn tuk tembak Sell..Xsabo huhu..SL 130.00 TP 115-110..Tah kena ke x..Aku da krgkn trade intraday..Bizi sket akhir2 nie..Wish me luck.. :)




Posted by neozero at 9:40 AM 0 comments Links to this post






Monday, January 26, 2009Analisa GBPUSD 26th Jan
TF1H


TF1H nie ada Bearish Hidden Divergence pd RSI & MACD..Valid jika xlepas 1.3911..Klu lps xvalid :p..Situasi yg sama mcm GJ jg.. :) .Klu lps 2@3btg CS 1H dr Last Low ar jumaat maybe low baru..Maybe :D



TF4H n ada Bullish Convergence pd MACD & Bullish Divergence pd RSI..Sudah naik bila menyentuh Monthly S2 @ 1.3514..Klu xlps last low..Maybe UT..Maybe range mgu dpn area rectangle tu..Maybe gak.. :D


Posted by neozero at 12:44 AM 0 comments Links to this post






Sunday, January 25, 2009Analisa GBPJPY 26th Jan
TF1H


TF1H nie ada Bearish Hidden Divergence...Jika xde gap atas dr 124..Bearish Hidden nie valid..Xvalid bila di atas 124..Jika break trendline tu..Mgkn akan membuat percubaan memecahkan support Monthly s2 119.57..Mgu lps support pd area nie sgt kuat..Percubaan 2x utk memecahkan support Monthly S2..Lps CS 4H maybe new low..maybe :) Klu xlps Last Low Maybe UT smula.

TF4H


TF4H ada Bullish Divergence pd RSI & Bullish Convergence pd MACD..Dan telah naik stlh xberjaya memecahkan Monthly S2 bt kali ke 2..Jika masih valid lg, mgkn akan membuat percubaan memecahkan Monthly S1 @ 125.xx..Jika xberjaya mgkn turun semula..Maybe next week, price akan bermain sekitar 120.xx-130.xx..Di dalam range Rectangle tu..Maybe :D


Posted by neozero at 11:36 PM 0 comments Links to this post






Thursday, January 22, 2009Candlesticks UJ=GJ?? Trend Reversal?? or Bearish Neck Pattern??


Chart atas nie UJ Daily..Da pn tjadi pd ms yg lps..Bwh nie plak GJ Daily..Tp lum wat lg..Nk wat same pattern ke..Tgk je la.. :D Now i'm thinking..not seeing :p Tp patternnya lbh krg samakan..
Aku pn tatau smd jd cam chart atas @ dia jd Bearish On Neck Pattern..Sb Kt GJ CS Long Leg Doji..KT GU Hammer..Berbeza CS..Jd aku tatau mn satu yg dia ikut..Reversal or Bearish On Neck Line??




Posted by neozero at 9:55 PM 0 comments Links to this post






Candlesticks Pattern BEOB & BUOB

Atas nie Chart pair ape tah aku pn tatau..Copy paste dr FF.. :D
BEOB bermaksud Bearish Outside Bar..Cth yg atas skali..
BUOB bermaksud Bullish Outside Bar..Cth kt bawahnya..


Posted by neozero at 9:20 PM 0 comments Links to this post






Candlesticks Pattern Bearish On Neck Pattern
USD/JPY Daily


Aku br blajar psl Candlesticks.. :D Atas nie chart USDJPY Daily..Namanya Bearish on Neck Pattern..Cth len kt bwh nie

GBPCHF Daily



GBPUSD Daily



Posted by neozero at 9:08 PM 0 comments Links to this post












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hefeiddd

Thursday, January 22, 2009: Daily Overview: JPY Vols Boosted Post Expiry
15:50 FX OPTIONS: Daily Overview: JPY Vols Boosted Post Expiry London, January 21. The Huge USD/JPY expiry at 90.00 was the talking point all week and when the USD 7bln finally rolled off the pair slumped as expected down over 1.5 JPY so far). Implied vols extended those gains seen in anticipation of such a reaction - 1 month atmf paid 22.5 initially from 20.5 yesterday and 19.25 Monday. Rest of the curve gaps higher but prices very thin. Vols in EUR/JPY higher as spot tripped stops at 115.00 - focus shifts to 113.00 barriers due next Monday and associated defence. Vols in EUR/USD Off early highs posted when spot tested its o/n low in the mid 1.28"s at the London open. 1 month atmf peaked 22.0 but given 21.5 since. 1 month 25 delta risk reversal traded size at 0.6 and 0.65 EUR puts (early Dec highs) but given 0.55 later. 6 month 25 delta risk reversal paid decent size at 0.55 EUR puts first thing. 3 month atmf reached 21.0, 6 month and 21.0 and 1 year 18.9 before offers returned. Good size French name buyer of Cable vega saw 6m paid 21.0 and 1 year at 19.75 and 20.0. The benchmark 1 month tenor reached early Dec highs at 25.0 after spot extended its new 7 year low to 1.3715 early on, but slightly better offers re-emerging since. 1 month EUR/GBP vol paid 22.0-22.3 and 1 month risk reversal at 2.1 EP. Vols in EUR/CHF eased a touch today - 1 month gvn 12.75 from 13.25 Tuesday. Richard.Pace@Thomsonreuters.com.


Posted by neozero at 12:10 AM 0 comments Links to this post






Tuesday, January 20, 2009Scalp GBPUSD


Kt atas nie cth aku Scalping amek bbrp pips di saat trend tgh DT.. Biasanya aku tgk TF5@TF2 len..Cam kt GJ chart sblm nie..Igt nak swing UT..TP kn SL +ve pips 20 lak.. :D Tape rezeki jg.. :) Klu scalp aku lbh sk GU sb spread kck berbanding GJ..Movement dia lbh krg sama je ngan GJ..Kdg2 lg dahsat oo..dr GJ..

Ok..Skrg tgk pat bulat warna merah tu..Bullish Divergence ps MACD n RSI, so boleh la counter trend..Pastikan move SL @ BE.. :) Dont BE GREED.. :)
Yg bulat warna biru tu plak, kedudukan bukit MACD makin mengecik..Patient is the key..Price akan balik semula xjauh dr pat asal.. :) Kaedah nie kena gabung ngan greak hati.. :)

Gerak hati dtg dr Allah..Dekatkan lah diri pdNya.. :) Insyaallah Dia akan membantu bg sharp@petunjuk.. :) Dan bersihkan hati kita.. :) Berbaik sesama manusia xkira la org tu mcm mn.. :) Br la rezeki dtg :) Tp byk faktor nak dptkan rezeki nie..Bkn nie sj :)


Posted by neozero at 6:32 PM 0 comments Links to this post






Saturday, January 3, 2009Divergence+Pivot Setup
Nie cth cane aku trade pki salah satu setting dr sistem aku pki..Cth pair GJ




Kt chart atas nie, ada Bearish Divergence pd RSI n MACD..Price pantul bl smp Pivot Weekly R1..133.32..Pastu dia tiruk smp 131.50




Yg nie lak Bullish Hidden Divergence pd RSI je..Kt MACD tade..kekeke..Price pantul dr Weekly S1 131.59..Support yg kuat kt situ..Bape kali dia nak ngetest support tu..xlepas2 gak..Pastu naik..Smp kt Daily Pivot n Weekly Pivot..

Sbnrnya, kt Momentum tu ada Divergence..Kekeke..


Posted by neozero at 1:50 PM 0 comments Links to this post







My Chart Setup



Nie setup chart aku, mst penin..wakakaka..Tp aku faham tape.. :D Aku guna MACD 8,17,9, RSI 14 & 5, EMA 25,50 & 200..2MA smoothed..Fractal..Momentum 14..Daily, Weekly, Monthly & Floating Pivot..

Aku backtest kt demo n real sistem nie br 3 bln..Wakaka..br g..:D Setup nie hasil gabungan bbrp sistem..Aku mskn yg sesuai, buang mn yg aku xbkenan..Aku kmplkn n kaji system2 len yg aku rasa sesuai tuk long term n short term trade, dan aku jadikan 1 setup yg sesuai tuk aku,..Setup nie aku dpt swing, scalping follow n counter trend.. :D Nie yg aku backtestla selama nie..Len org len cara.. :D Pahit maung sireh pinang dlm mkaji setup nie..Syukur Alhamdullillah berbaloi jg.. :D

Honestly aku nie 100% Technical trade..Kekeke..Aku fokus nie sb mata aku de 2 biji jek..Sume nak tgk..Nt penin aku..Wakakaka..De org kata pair nie naik turun sb dow jones, emas dll..Kdg2 x jgk aku tgk..kena tipu je..wakaka..So aku fokus tang TA je..Aku belasah je time ade news ke x..Bkn aku tau pn ada news kuar..Sb aku xtgk pn....wakaka...Nie aku le..Jgn ikut cth..kekeke

AKu trade byk pair..Kena ngan setup aku trade.. :D Pair favourite aku GU n GJ.. :D


Posted by neozero at 11:07 PM 0 comments Links to this post






My First post
Testing 1,2,3..kekeke..1hb Januari 2009, aku buat blog..Blog aku psl ape2 je aku nak post..ISA (Ikut Suka Aku) wakakaka..Akunya avatar tu ltk aku AVP (alien versus predator) ..Psl aku trade forex ada Buyer vs Seller..Tp trader kecil-kecilan cam aku nie mati kt tgh2..wakakaka..

Tahun lps aku blajar dr Buyer vs Seller nie..Yg mana aku blajar scalp counter trend..Dangerous jgn ikut..kekeke..Pastu aku tgk bl smp support @ resistance pat2 tertentu aku, jerung2 akan counter trend..Time nie trader2 kantol sb tatau level2 S&R..Aku da bberapa kali tkena..Bila aku sot dia long..Bila aku long dia sot..wakakaka..Pengalaman megajar aku dlm mengenal dunia FOREX nie..

Bape lama aku trade forex?? Rahsia..kekeke..Sblm aku aktif lepak kt www.carigold.com g..Msh br g..nubie gaban.. :D Azam aku tahun baru nie, aku nak besarkan akaun2 aku..Moga jd kenyataan target 2009..Amin.


Posted by neozero at 10:40 PM 0 comments Links to this post






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hefeiddd

Blog Archive

• ▼ 2009 (108)
  • ▼ April (7)
    • GBPJPY Analysis Daily & Weekly Chart
    • Update : GBPJPY Analysis 3rd April
    • GBPJPY Scalp Using Volume Spread Indicator (VSA)
    • GBPJPY Analysis 3rd April
    • GBPJPY Preview yesterday 2nd April
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD Analysis 2nd April
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD Analysis 1th April
  • ► March (32)
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD Analysis 31th March
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD Analysis Next Monday 30th March
    • COT Report (Commitments Of Traders)
    • Volume Spread Analysis
    • COT Report (Commitments Of Traders)
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD Analysis 20th March 2.50 p.m
    • Update : Preview on GBPJPY & GBPUSD
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD preview 19th March
    • What Happen yesterday?
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD Analysis 17th March 9.36 a.m
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD Analysis 16th March 12..50 a.m
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD Analysis next 16th March
    • COT (Commitments of Traders)
    • No analysis today..Coz i got work to do..Busy righ...
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD Analysis.. 12th March 8.23 p.m
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD Analysis.. 12th March 1.13 p.m
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD Analysis 10.52 p.m
    • COT Report last week (Commitments of Traders)
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD Analysis 11th March 1.28 p.m
    • GBJPY & GBUSD Analysis 10hb March 5:25p.m
    • GBPJPY Elliot Wave Daily Chart & Ichimoku Cloud
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD Analysis 2.35 p.m
    • An Alert For Cross Yen?? Chart as 4.52 p.m
    • Euro/Yen and the Trading Politics of the Japanese ...
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD Analysis 5March 11.09 a.m
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD Analysis 4th March 8.01 p.m
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD Analysis 4th March 4.24 p.m
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD Analysis 3th March 10.23 p.m
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD Analysis 3hb March 10.58 a.m
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD Analysis 2hb March 12.00 p.m
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD Daily, Weekly & Monthly pivot
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD Analysis next week
  • ► February (50)
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD Analysis 27th Feb 3.06 p.m
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD Analysis 26th Feb 9.05 p.m
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD Analysis 26th Feb 5.37 p.m
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD Analysis 26th Feb 11.14 a.m
    • GBPJPY Analysis 25th Feb 9.16 p.m
    • GBPJPY Analysis 25th Feb 8.05 p.m
    • GBPJPY Elliot Wave
    • GBPJPY Analysis 24th Feb 7.51 p.m
    • GBPUSD Analysis 24th Feb 7.13 pm
    • GBPJPY & GBPUSD Analysis 24th Feb 11.30 am
    • GBPJPY Analysis 24th February 7.40 a.m
  • ► January (19)

My Blog List

Daily GJ Technical Analysis

GBPJPY analysis - long upper wick on the daily candle?? 8 hours ago




Mr.7xxx..........

Preview... Geppy Daily chart, 2 days ago




Harimau Kumbang Journal Forex 2009

My Chart for Next Week 2 March 2009 5 weeks ago



• 
  Pip Yang Hilang
  
  EUR/USD 20 Jan 2008 What Happen with my Short Position 2 months ago
  
  
  
  

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-7 15:48 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Tumpang iklan ye....Tak nak baju yang sama dengan orang lain...anda ada pilihan...batik + selendang sutera ekslusif harga hanya RM200 sahaja...koleksi kain batik halus, kebaya dan telekung sulam semuanya murah!!!!!..Batik lepas ala-ala PGL pun ada .....mai la datang jenguk...

:

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[size=+3] [size=+3]	[size=+1]Candlestick Patterns Play candlestick flashcard game.
[size=-1]Candle Statistics (last 10 days): View all sorted by date then strength.	Enter Symbol    Lookup [size=-2]Dow=$DJI [size=-1](click on a pattern to get more information)
Bearish Candlestick Count = 2662	Bearish Candlestick Strength = 39
Bullish Candlestick Count = 2174	Bullish Candlestick Strength = -72
Continuation	Reversal

[size=-1]Bearish Patterns:

[tr][/tr][tr][/tr]

Count = 0 [size=-1] [size=-1]Bearish Falling 3 Methods	Count = 0 [size=+3] [size=-1]Bearish Breakaway	Count = 0 [size=+3] [size=-1]Bearish 3-Line Strike	Count = 1 [size=+3] [size=-1]Bearish Downside Gap 3 Methods	Count = 137 [size=-1]Bearish Downside Tasuki Gap	Count = 10 [size=-1]Bearish Side-By-Side White Lines	Count = 1 [size=+3] [size=-1]Bearish Abandoned Baby	Count = 2 [size=+3] [size=-1]Bearish Advance Block
Count = 108 [size=-1]Bearish Deliberation	Count = 8 [size=-1]Bearish Evening Doji Star	Count = 4 [size=-1]Bearish Evening Star	Count = 2 [size=-1]Bearish Identical 3 Crows	Count = 1 [size=-1]Bearish 3 Black Crows	Count = 242 [size=-1]Bearish 3 Inside Down	Count = 66 [size=-1]Bearish 3 Outside Down	Count = 155 [size=-1]Bearish Tri-Star
Count = 1 [size=+3] [size=-1]Bearish 2 Crows	Count = 7 [size=-1]Bearish Upside Gap 2 Crows	Count = 5 [size=-1]Bearish In-Neck	Count = 3 [size=-1]Bearish On-Neck	Count = 2 [size=-1]Bearish Separating Lines	Count = 5 [size=-1]Bearish Thrusting	Count = 48 [size=-1]Bearish Dark Cloud Cover	Count = 220 [size=-1]Bearish Doji Star
Count = 158 [size=-1]Bearish Engulfing	Count = 237 [size=-1]Bearish Harami	Count = 935 [size=-1]Bearish Harami Cross	Count = 2 [size=-1]Bearish Kicking	Count = 1 [size=-1]Bearish Meeting Lines	Count = 24 [size=-1]Bearish Shooting Star	Count = 83 [size=+3] [size=-1]Bearish Belt Hold	Count = 98 [size=-1]Bearish Hanging Man
Count = 96 [size=-1]Bearish Tweezer Top

[size=-1]Bullish Patterns:

Count = 0 [size=-1]Bullish Mat Hold	Count = 0 [size=-1]Bullish Rising 3 Methods	Count = 1 [size=-1]Bullish Breakaway	Count = 15 [size=-1]Bullish Ladder Bottom	Count = 0 [size=-1]Bullish 3-Line Strike	Count = 0 [size=-1]Bullish Concealing Baby Swallow	Count = 117 [size=-1]Bullish Side-By-Side White Lines	Count = 2 [size=-1]Bullish Upside Gap 3 Methods
Count = 44 [size=-1]Bullish Upside Tasuki Gap	Count = 3 [size=-1]Bullish Abandoned Baby	Count = 10 [size=-1]Bullish Morning Doji Star	Count = 9 [size=-1]Bullish Morning Star	Count = 4 [size=-1]Bullish Stick Sandwich	Count = 171 [size=-1]Bullish 3 Inside Up	Count = 518 [size=-1]Bullish 3 Outside Up	Count = 0 [size=-1]Bullish 3 Stars in the South
Count = 14 [size=-1]Bullish 3 White Soldiers	Count = 113 [size=-1]Bullish Tri-Star	Count = 1 [size=-1]Bullish Unique 3 River Bottom	Count = 0 [size=-1]Bullish Separating Lines	Count = 88 [size=-1]Bullish Doji Star	Count = 631 [size=-1]Bullish Engulfing	Count = 75 [size=-1]Bullish Harami	Count = 150 [size=-1]Bullish Harami Cross
Count = 31 [size=-1]Bullish Homing Pigeon	Count = 0 [size=-1]Bullish Inverted Hammer	Count = 0 [size=-1]Bullish Kicking	Count = 13 [size=-1]Bullish Matching Low	Count = 0 [size=-1]Bullish Meeting Lines	Count = 49 [size=-1]Bullish Piercing Line	Count = 97 [size=-1]Bullish Belt Hold	Count = 11 [size=-1]Bullish Hammer
Count = 7 [size=-1]Bullish Tweezer Bottom

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-7 16:25 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Mr.7xxx..........
Think...what do you need think...****






Saturday, April 4, 2009Preview... Geppy Daily chart,

Preview... chart from counting wave at daily still in major mood correction... FE 161.8%

Posted by Mr 7xxx at 11:56 AM 0 comments




Playing gap...

saje2...tggu close market pagi sabtu...testing2..Sell kat high...mari kita tgk leh g tak 145 mggu depan..(dah lame aku tak main gap selepas...sejarah itam yg penah belaku pada aku)

Posted by Mr 7xxx at 6:31 AM 0 comments




Monday, March 30, 200917 Factor....guide u
Forex Guide - 17 Key Factors 1. Establish Stop Loss : Before making any forex trade what soever, decide before how much you're willing to lose and you just follow that amount. Set a stop loss level before entering a trade and place it as soon as possible. Never alter your stop loss if your position is losing.


2. Let your profits Run : Never let your emotions govern a trade. Keep in mind why you are entering the market and of course you follow these reasons. You'll be less emotional, you will be better. Do not turn your trading plan, move your stop loss as the market moves in your favor and let your profits run.

3. Do not influence them : You must have your own forex trading strategy and you will comply. If you are influenced by others, you change your mind so incessant, learn to ignore the outside once you have made your choice. You will always find someone who can give you a logical explanation to take a position opposed to yours.

4. Keep sizes and positions within acceptable limits : Forex Traders have a real success when they know that trading is a game of probabilities, and in long term if you stick to your strategies and you implement healthy strategies that you follow, it is likely that you will succeed. To be a successful trader, you will never take a position that could jeopardize substantial capital. In fact, you will find only very rarely win trader risk that more than 10% of its capital in a trade, and 10% is already extremely high. For example, if you deposit 25, 000 USD from your trading account, your maximum loss should be USD 2, 500, representing a maximum loss of 250 pips for a standard lot of 100,000 units (on a trade EUR / USD for example) . Generally, try to put more than 2 to 5% of your available capital.

5. Know your risk ratio Vs your earnings ratio : The ratio of benefit / minimum risk you should use is 2:1. For example, if you are trading long GBP / USD and you want to gain 50 pips, you should not risk more than 25 pips. Another example, you should never risk 40 pips to gain 15. If you do, you lose trades will ruin your chances of profits. The analysis of risk Vs profits is an extremely important for any forex trader.

6. Have a suitable capital : Always make sure you have enough credit, for example you can ask the following question: "If I lose 50% of my starting capital in a period of 6 months, can I still enable as a trader? . Only if the answer is yes you can start trading. One of the keys to success is independence of mind in the trading, which means your trading freedom must not be influenced by your fear "crippling" to lose.

7. In Trend or Neutral : Learn how to analyze the forex market, is this a trend or rather neutral? In a market trend, follow the trend, in a neutral market, buy low and sell high, since you are using stop loss, and you control your risk.

8. Do not fight against the trend : Do not try to sell high in a bull market or to buy low in a bear market. Follow the good old adage "the trend is your friend!

9. Average : One of the most common mistakes made by traders is the continuous addition of positions on a losing position. I have personally never seen a trader profits on the long term by using such techniques. For short-term trades, preserving capital is the most important, involve too much capital will undermine your success. Trading in the short term, if your strategy is good, the market will evolve in the desired direction in a relatively short time, however if the market gives you wrong, the short-term traders will have to accept that they trade so incorrectly, gets cash losses and seek a new trading idea. Do not leave room for pride in your trading.

10.The idea of yesterday is no longer necessarily valid today: Regularly we may detect a potential trade and decide to wait until the following day to see if he is confirmed. When you see that everything went exactly as you thought, remember that it may already be too late. Back over your reasoning for this trade, make sure your original reasons are still valid, if not forget this trade. There will always be opportunities for trades, be patient and attack.

11. Understand how the market thinks : Everbody should accept that any information (except for newly published information that the market adjusts immediately) is already included in the price of a currency pair. You must know the indicators to come (especially the most important), and you need to know what is already anticipated by the market. The vast majority of the publications of the market is already anticipated and prices by the market.

12. Trading - a game of probabilities : Nobody can get 100% results in forex trading, you must accept it. Trading is a game of numbers, you win sometimes and lose other times, the idea is simply to win more than you lose. Trading is a game of probability and if you act properly in the long term, you will come out winner. Learn from your mistakes, when you begin, you're more likely to lose in the beginning, look what you've done wrong, try not to get into the emotions, if you meet your strategy and learn from your mistakes, you should see your profits exceed your losses.


13. Know why you are in a trade : Keep a journal of your trades and record exactly why you went into each trade. Do not be impulsive, follow your strategy, that way you will learn what strategies work for you long term and which do not work.


14. If the logic disappears, exit : If you think you are on a low and that it breaks down, exit the trade, and then reassess the situation to make a new decision.


15. Establish a follow up : If you chain 3 or 4 losing trades, take a break! It is obvious something is not working, leave, go drink a coffee,Do not be afraid to take a break.

16. Study : Learn new ideas, keep up to date, and do not trade on the ideas of others, you should always know why you are in a trade.


17. Fun : Enjoy what you do, have fun! However, keep calm, stay as uneffected and never give up - you'll have more success.


Posted by Mr 7xxx at 8:57 PM 0 comments




Saturday, March 21, 2009Update Gj preview 23 - 27/03/09


Salam...sekadar pandangan ringkas tuk gj mggu depan...pada pandangan sy...pergerakan market gj bias terhadap... bear candle this week.. price di jangka akan berlegar sekitar 139.xx-128.xx sekira nya berjaya break triangle...berhati2...sekiranya price berjaya melepasi 140.xx totaly bias tidak lagi valid..apa2 pun 135.70 menjadi confirmation..trend bertukar...good luck

Posted by Mr 7xxx at 7:13 AM 0 comments




Monday, March 16, 2009update 17/03/09

just pandangan untuk geppy hari ini...price close still above weekly pivot...trend maseh nampak bullish...di jangka gj akan mencuba 140.50...jika gj tidak break 137.30 hari ini...

Posted by Mr 7xxx at 6:06 PM 0 comments




Friday, March 13, 2009Money Management....
Don't Lose Your ShirtBuy a copy of School of Pipsology for $49 in PDF formatBuy and download a printable and easy-to-read PDF document containing the ENTIRE School of Pipsology. The PDF is an exact copy of the School section, over 250 pages (pictures included), minus advertisements and chapter-ending quizzes. Read it on-screen or print it so you can take it with you on the road.
When you buy the PDF you'll receive an email within minutes with (1) a DIRECT LINK to download the PDF and (2) a PASSWORD to open the PDF. You MUST have the password to open the PDF.
*Please add INFO@BABYPIPS.COM and SERVICE@BABYPIPS.COM to your SPAM whitelist/safe-sender list.

I agree to be charged $49 for one copy of "School of Pipsology" in PDF format. PAYPAL is the only form of payment accepted. I understand I'm purchasing a single copy for myself and I won't make copies of the book or distribute it to anyone else. If someone else wants a copy I'll encourage them to purchase their own. I also understand that I will need a password to open the PDF each time.

or Cancel

Here is a little illustration that will show you the difference between risking a small percentage of your capital compared to risking a higher percentage.

You can see that there is a big difference between risking 2% of your account compared to risking 10% of your account on a single trade. If you happened to go through a losing streak and lost only 19 trades in a row, you would’ve went from starting with $20,000 to having only $3,002 left if you risked 10% on each trade. You would’ve lost over 85% of your account! If you risked only 2% you would’ve still had $13,903 which is only a 30% loss of your total account.
Of course, the last thing we want to do is lose 19 trades in a row, but even if you only lost 5 trades in a row, look at the difference between risking 2% and 10%. If you risked 2% you would still have $18,447. If you risked 10% you would only have $13,122. That’s less than what you would’ve had even if you lost all 19 trades and risked only 2% of your account!
The point of this illustration is that you want to setup your money management rules so that when you do have a drawdown period (losing streak) you will still have enough capital to stay in the game. Can you imagine if you lost 85% of your account? You would have to make 566% on what you are left with in order to get back to break even. Trust me, you do NOT want to be in that position. In fact, here is a chart that will illustrate what percentage you would have to make to breakeven if you were to lose a certain percentage of your account.

You can see that the more you lose, the harder it is to make it back to your original account size. This is all the more reason that you should do everything you can to protect your account.
So by now, I hope you have gotten it drilled in your head that you should only risk a small percentage of your account in each trade so that you can survive your losing streaks and also to avoid a large drawdown in your account. Remember, you want to be the casino…NOT the gambler!


Posted by Mr 7xxx at 9:30 AM 0 comments




Saturday, March 7, 2009Weekly Preview 9 - 13 /09 ..



Pandangan market minggu ini maseh lagi ke arah mood correction...di mana market bergerak pada (135.xx-144.xx) kedudukan correction yg besar utk percubaan ke Fibo 23.6% (144.59).Walau bagaimana pun pergerakan ini akan terbatas sekira nya price breakout diagonal support... 135.13 trend correction tidak valid lagi..Good Luck

Posted by Mr 7xxx at 7:34 PM 0 comments




Older Posts

hefeiddd

Sunday, March 1, 2009This week Preview...

Just my personal preview ...for this week...i'm looking geppy play in range area 135-144...price close above Pivot point...see this week...price wanna strong to pull back again....beware...at 133 range area zone...wish me luck again....

Posted by Mr 7xxx at 5:42 AM 0 comments




Monday, February 23, 2009bounce Back...

nice...zone...timing...GJ menlonjak naik....utk membuat new high yg baru....kelihatan geppy...dalam retracement side...sebelum naik...testing 23.6 % 134.xx..

Posted by Mr 7xxx at 4:25 PM 0 comments









Friday, February 13, 2009New zone..

update 13/2/09

aku masuk post short...for first swing side... ke TP 125.xx ape yg aku nampak price bermain di new zone... hope tak kene SL 134.70..wish me luck

Posted by Mr 7xxx at 12:01 AM 0 comments




Thursday, February 12, 2009


waiting for breakout.. geppy 128.xx...to try create double bottom (125.xx) first before breakout again..122

Posted by Mr 7xxx at 12:15 AM 0 comments




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hefeiddd

Monday, February 9, 2009


Update 10/2/09

just my personal preview at weekly chart...for this week price still play in 128.xx - 141.xx(fibo retracement...)...for this month i believe that geppy wanna create the bull candle end of this month...see some larger correction mode...for major TF..

Posted by Mr 7xxx at 11:51 PM 0 comments




Thursday, February 5, 2009GJ menduga SL aku pada 136.xx

update 6/2/09

kelihatan gj cuba complete retracement side pada 76.4 sudah mengena...adakah trend down akan berlaku...semua 5 Post Sell aku dah masuk dari area ,126,128.129.131.133...menunggu masa pergerakan seterusnya....SL kat 136 nie dah mula berada di paras kritikal..waiting for result NFP..sok sama ada kene SL or .....sebalik nyer

Posted by Mr 7xxx at 11:08 AM 0 comments




Wednesday, February 4, 2009Pergerakan Sideway market (price bergerak dari kiri ke kanan)

update chart...5/2/09

kelihatan geppyi dalam mood correction...still dalam range perjalanan 76.4%....perjalanan price dari kiri ke kanan...mula menunjuk kan tanda2 breakout semakin hampir..

Posted by Mr 7xxx at 9:33 AM 0 comments




Monday, February 2, 2009Patience is key....

hi guys....

just my personal preview...geppy chart at h4 now se...geppy still in mode sideway... wanna complete 76.4 % structure before move down...beware...at critical price 132.xx price play in 130-125 before change trend...

*critical news.. ADP data
* Non Farm Payroll...




Posted by Mr 7xxx at 10:09 AM 0 comments




Thursday, January 29, 2009Breakout diagonal support (end of ascending market)

update 30/1/09

just my personal preview geppy at h4 chart...i see price now break my diagonal support...this is time to running out sideway market..

Posted by Mr 7xxx at 4:34 PM 0 comments








Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Next month Target

update pair fav aku...mula mengisi post tuk hold market pada bulan depan paper pun

TP 1 115
TP2 110....

Posted by Mr 7xxx at 6:10 PM 0 comments




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hefeiddd

Last Updated: January 28, 2009 08:33 EST

Posted by Mr 7xxx at 5:44 PM 0 comments





perghh...gchf nie betul2 menduga skill trading aku....aku bajet die retrace 50% die retrace 61.8% lak...dah sangkut satu post floating...kat area 50%..paper pun aku masuk order lagi kat 61.8%...utk post yg ke 2...al maklum la....market still dalam correction...bak kate org time sideway nie duk tepi tggu conformation dl...aku lak...time camnie sibuk2 duk masuk post...betul2 tak dengar kata...paper pun :-

TP 1 = 1.5672
TP2 = 1.5173....

Posted by Mr 7xxx at 4:04 PM 0 comments




Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Albert Einstein said, “The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them. “

Posted by Mr 7xxx at 5:16 PM 0 comments





update geppy...for today....

bias geppy touch lower TL.....123.xx ..ceh mcm start lumba lari pulak..bia la org nak cakap die naik ari nie...aku tetap nampak die kat bawah..enta betul ke tak ari nie aku main hentam jerk

Posted by Mr 7xxx at 4:46 PM 0 comments






update chart gchf..28/01/09

bagun pepagi ngah godek2 tenet...tetibe jerk aku tgk pair nie di ambang...maut...adakah retracement 50% menandakan tamatnya tempoh correction market...adus...pening kepala...jika ia benar berlaku...jauh perjalanan pair nie....

Posted by Mr 7xxx at 4:23 PM 0 comments




Monday, January 26, 2009
bagi sapa2 yg tak leh download link kat bawah nie ....cube try link nie

http://uploads.bizhat.com/file/378433

Posted by Mr 7xxx at 12:37 AM 0 comments




Thursday, January 22, 2009

waa....geppy...melantun naik ar.....let see...how long correction complete....

Posted by Mr 7xxx at 2:00 AM 0 comments




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hefeiddd

Thursday, January 22, 2009
Okey.....ari nie aku nak share sedikit Note...yg aku wat...enjoy it...

http://www.savefile.com/files/1976938

Posted by Mr 7xxx at 1:48 AM 0 comments




Wednesday, January 21, 2009

hit...my plan for this week 119....

Posted by Mr 7xxx at 9:12 AM 0 comments






Geppy...testing.... 122.xx

Posted by Mr 7xxx at 12:27 AM 0 comments




Tuesday, January 20, 2009

salam...update...pair geppy...selepas melihat satu pertanda bear rejection...pada price...di tf h4...gudnite....next retrace ment 38.2...before down

Posted by Mr 7xxx at 8:38 AM 0 comments




Sunday, January 18, 2009Waiting....the nice break out

just my personal preview...For Geppy... i'm waiting ...a breakout price at my trendline..

Posted by Mr 7xxx at 8:12 AM 0 comments




Friday, January 16, 2009EUR/USD Forecast After the ECB Rate Decision
The European Central Bank has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50 bps to 2%, yet in our opinion, the rate cut came a bit too late, and we expect more EUR/USD weakness going forward on speculation that we may have a considerable deterioration of the euro zone economy in 2009.
The Euro Zone Is Experiencing a Significant Slowdown, Trichet Said
In the introductory statement ahead of the regular press conference, Jean-Claude Trichet sounded very pessimistic. The president of the ECB said the euro zone is experiencing a significant slowdown and “today’s decision takes into account that inflationary pressures have continued to diminish, owing in particular to the further weakening in the economic outlook.” Looking further ahead, he said that we may “continue to see global economic weakness and very sluggish domestic demand persisting in the coming quarters as the impact of the financial tensions on activity continues.”
Euro/Dollar Forecast for 2009 (Updated)
It is always difficult to make exchange rate forecasts, particularly when the currency market is very volatile. Even so, in this article, we argue that a considerable deterioration of the euro zone economy in 2009 could lead to a significant shift of interest rate differentials in favor of the US dollar and keep the EUR/USD under pressure over the next few months. Indeed, recent economic data points toward weakening of real GDP growth in the euro zone economy, and a more accommodative monetary policy by the European Central Bank could be needed to prevent the region from falling into a much deeper recession. On the other hand, the recent selloff in commodities, particularly in oil, should alleviate some downward pressure from the US economy, which has been running a current account deficit of nearly 5% of GDP.
Source: Bloomberg
The ECB Underestimated the Size of the Financial Crisis
The biggest housing and credit bubble in history continues to threaten the entire global financial system, and the once-resilient euro zone economy is slowly succumbing to tight credit conditions and a slowing global economy. Initially, European policy leaders thought the financial crisis would be confined to the United States, and the ECB was slower to act than the Federal Reserve. Inflation in the euro zone was well above a level consistent with price stability, and the ECB was concerned with second-round effects of energy prices in wage and price setting. However, the credit storm that began in the US ended up affecting the euro zone and European banks were forced to write off $229 billion out of a global total of $588 billion in losses related the collapse of the US subprime market. While no one can deny that Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB president, has done a lot to boost the euro as a credible alternative for the US dollar, it is also becoming clear that the ECB perhaps underestimated the size of the financial crisis by keeping interest rates too high for too long. In fact, the euro zone is now in a technical recession and facing the most serious test since the euro was introduced to the world financial markets in 1999.
Risks for This Trade
In 2008, the US dollar appreciated against several of the world’s most heavily traded currencies. To some extent, investors were reluctant to take leveraged positions on higher yielding currencies, and the US dollar was helped by a strong demand from financial institutions seeking a safe-haven currency. However, holding a long position in the US dollar also involves some risks. In fact, the US economy is likely to continue to face substantial challenges in 2009, including further job losses and a rapid deleveraging in the financial sector. In addition, some investors are concerned with the fiscal impact of the rescue plan, which could cost almost 5% of GDP. Currently, the United States federal government runs a deficit of $438 billion, or 3% of gross domestic product, and the bailout plan could push the fiscal deficit next year to $1 trillion, or 7% of GDP.


Posted by Mr 7xxx at 4:11 PM 0 comments




The Dollar Emerging from the Sea of Japan
Hi again, Everyone!
Despite the U.S. CPI coming “relatively in line”, the TIC Treasury Outflows Data atrocious , and Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production down… we are still making a decent bounce in our major “Match” of the Dollar Yen.
Here is our same Daily view from my previous Post…and we are grinding out some daylight here with the Dollar bounce off of Support.
Be sure to click once for the Captures, as most of the Analysis is on the Charts!

(Post-Time is 15:25 GMT)


Here on two Hourly captures, we can see the strength of the counter-trend move here…





We will meet again for the Sydney Open on Sunday and check our progress here with some more ideas!
A good weekend to all, and we’ll see you then!


Posted by Mr 7xxx at 4:01 PM 0 comments




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hefeiddd

Sunday, January 4, 2009Worming Up...Season

update New season 2009

hi frenz...just my personal preview for geppy total range this week...
i'm looking bias more for bullish...just see my chart price totally play in range area 131-138...if this range play still in above my diagonal support...i see some correction market this week..wish me luck..




Posted by Mr 7xxx at 9:04 AM 0 comments




Blog Archive

• ▼ 2009 (43)
  • ▼ April (2)
    • ▼ Apr 04 (2)
      • Preview... Geppy Daily chart,
      • Playing gap...
  • ► March (7)
    • ► Mar 30 (1)
      • 17 Factor....guide u
    • ► Mar 21 (1)
      • Update Gj preview 23 - 27/03/09
    • ► Mar 16 (1)
      • update 17/03/09
    • ► Mar 13 (1)
      • Money Management....
    • ► Mar 07 (1)
      • Weekly Preview 9 - 13 /09 ..
    • ► Mar 05 (1)
      • FINANCIAL CRISIS AND BAILOUTS
    • ► Mar 01 (1)
      • This week Preview...
  • ► February (9)
    • ► Feb 23 (1)
      • bounce Back...
    • ► Feb 21 (2)
      • Wang Kertas : Penipuan terbesar dalam sejarah manu...
      • Layan perasaan..
    • ► Feb 13 (1)
      • New zone..
    • ► Feb 12 (1)
      • waiting for breakout.. geppy 128.xx...to try cre...
    • ► Feb 09 (1)
      • Update 10/2/09 just my personal preview at week...
    • ► Feb 05 (1)
      • GJ menduga SL aku pada 136.xx
    • ► Feb 04 (1)
      • Pergerakan Sideway market (price bergerak dari kir...
    • ► Feb 02 (1)
      • Patience is key....
  • ► January (25)
    • ► Jan 29 (2)
      • Breakout diagonal support (end of ascending market...
      • bunkface - situasi
    • ► Jan 28 (3)
      • Next month Target
      • Soros stopped betting againt pound afrer $1.40
      • perghh...gchf nie betul2 menduga skill trading ak...
    • ► Jan 27 (3)
      • Master Ur Trading EQ How To Increase Your Tradi...
      • update geppy...for today.... bias geppy touch lo...
      • update chart gchf..28/01/09 bagun pepagi ngah go...
    • ► Jan 26 (1)
      • bagi sapa2 yg tak leh download link kat bawah nie ...
    • ► Jan 22 (2)
      • waa....geppy...melantun naik ar.....let see...how...
      • Okey.....ari nie aku nak share sedikit Note...yg a...
    • ► Jan 21 (2)
      • hit...my plan for this week 119....
      • Geppy...testing.... 122.xx
    • ► Jan 20 (1)
      • salam...update...pair geppy...selepas melihat sat...
    • ► Jan 18 (1)
      • Waiting....the nice break out
    • ► Jan 16 (2)
      • EUR/USD Forecast After the ECB Rate Decision
      • The Dollar Emerging from the Sea of Japan
    • ► Jan 10 (1)
      • Historically low interest rates to boost economic ...
    • ► Jan 07 (1)
      • ADP Sees December US private Sector Job
    • ► Jan 05 (1)
      • Dollar Broadly Higher On US Economic Stimulus Repo...
    • ► Jan 04 (5)
      • Worming Up...Season
      • Israeli troops push into Gaza as war toll mounts
      • ENGLISH FA CUP: Fergie challenges Devils to run ri...
      • Trading and Emotions
      • Money MAnagement

• ► 2008 (10)

hefeiddd

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Forex Trading TodayA Blog of Commentary and Ideas from an FXstreet Premium Member by Tim Salem (CVJ







Posted on April 7, 2009 at 3:04 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

Greetings Again, and as promised… a brief Update after these two Central Bank Decisions!
We are seeing similar Sentiment here with both Units on the Hourly Views… as the “loose Potential” of IntraDay Flag Formations is upon us.
The Bank of Japan held Rates as expected, and the Reserve Bank of Australia Cut by only .25% bps which should have been a bit “surprising” to the Markets considering “Rhetoric” of a .50 bps Cut….but alas… it was largely “Priced-In” and ignored nonetheless.
Here are the Hourlies for some reference, so give them a Click, and Post-Time is 8:00 GMT.





We will float around at our next Update and check in with some other Units for a “Fresh Perspective”, so I will see you soon!




Tags: AUD/USD, Australia, bear, Bull, central bank, flag, interest rate, Japan, quantitative easing, USD/JPY

AUD/USD and USD/JPY On Deck with Central Bank Rates
Posted on April 6, 2009 at 21:02 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings, Everyone and welcome to Tuesday!
Our Central Bank Activity we spoke of begins “tentatively” as of this writing for the Bank of Japan, where Consensus has the BoJ expecting to Hold Rates @ 0.10% once again… as it has for the First Quarter of 2009.
There really is nowhere for the BoJ to move and leverage at this point, although, a subtle “Adoption” of a “Wait and See” Policy is in View.
Despite the horrific Tankan Survey… some overall “Pessimism” in the Japanese Climate may be beginning to moderate and ease a bit moving forward, since there is “Rhetoric” of NOT introducing any new Policy or Criteria as Prime Minister Aso’s Stimulus Plan is to be looked into.
The Reserve Bank of Australia and its’ Decision has a little more “Heat” added to it… as there is unclear Consensus as to whether the RBA will Hold… or indeed, Cut the Overnight Rate by 0.50% bps, respectively.
The KEY here is that Quantitative Easing has not been at the forefront of the RBA’s Intentions… as they are not at, nor hovering around, “0″%, … as are most Global Central Entities.
The current 3.25% Rate gives the Australian Economy “Solo Status” in being literally “Recession-Free” in the Global Climate… and with a possible 3rd rollout of a Stimulus Package… there surely is plenty of Liquidity to go around.
Those “Indecisive Thoughts” do appear when we think of the poor Data Points… as Retail Sales, GDP, Unemployment and such all place “Heavy Weight” on the Economy Itself.
A stronger Dollar of late ( in general ), and the Depreciation in Gold have not neccessarily harmed the Economy… but they surely have provided some “Collateral Damage” that has to be contended with.
With all of the Macro-Fundamental Introductions aside… let’s take a relatively ”Clean” look at the Daily Time-Cycles of these two Units.
( We will drill down as the Rate Decisions provide “Catalysts” for Momentum as we move forward in our next Update…)
Post-Time is 2:00 GMT, and give the Captures a Click, as always!





( Please be mindful that we have no idea with any true Certainty  of what will transpire with these Decisions or with consequential Price Action… so we must simply be prepared to REACT, as is always the case. )
Surely we will check in with an Update here with the Aussie and Dollar Yen… and We will do so immediately after the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” at right around 7:00 GMT.
See you then!




Tags: AUD/USD, Australia, central bank, interest rate, Japan, quantitative easing, USD/JPY

The Dollar and Yen Do Not Concede Easily with our Two Cousins Today…
Posted on April 6, 2009 at 11:09 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings again, Everyone for an Update @ 16:00 GMT!
As suspected… we all know Price Action cannot continue that “Uni-Directionality” I spoke of in our earlier Update with both of our “Cousins” the EUR/USD and the GBP/JPY pulling off of significant Key Resistance Areas.
As I so often speak of… Direction and Momentum is not constant and indefinite… just as we climb the Mountain… we have to take a rest sooner or later…obtain fresh Supplies back at Base Camp… and move forward.
( In InterMarket News… both Gold and Crude Oil continue to depreciate… possibly giving us a little “insight” into the Dollar and Yen strength not being a Paradigm Shift… but a “Classic” Technical Retracement in Sentiment… )
Here are the Hourly Views once again of Pound Yen and the Euro… so give them a Click as always.
Post-Time is 16:10 GMT.






I will be with you again for the Asian Session as we see how “deep” these Retracements become moving forward… not just with these two, but with most Majors and Crosses at this time!




Tags: breach, correction, currency pair, EUR/USD, Exchange Rate, GBP/JPY, Price, pullback, retracement, unit, violation


IntraDay Consolidation Begins with Range-Bound Activity
Posted on April 6, 2009 at 6:34 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings again, Everyone!
With such deep Price Appreciation and “Uni-Directionality”… we are beginning to observe some sideways Consolidaton with Hourly Range-Bound Price Behavior moving forward.
This is indicative of Institutional Activity as they “Re-Set the Playing Field” as we say… and prepare either for deeper Corrective Behavior for overall Trend Continuation… or “Failures” in Sentiment where we may now find Reversals and such.
Our two “Cousins” of the Day… a Major and a Cross… EUR/USD and GBP/JPY illustrate this nicely.
Here are the Hourly Views so give them a Click, as always… and Post-Time is 11:35 GMT.






We will return with another Update, as always after the NYSE Open as we throw Equities “into the mix” with Dow Futures down just slightly,  as well as Data Points that continue to emerge!





Tags: bottom, consolidation, continuation, equity, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, Price, range, range bound, sideways, top


EUR/USD and GBP/JPY Prime Examples of Risk Appetite Return
Posted on April 5, 2009 at 21:16 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings, and welcome to Monday Everyone!
We have plenty of Macro-Event Data coming in what many of us like to call a  ”Central Bank Week”.
“On the Block” this week is the Bank of Japan, the Reserve Bank of Australia,  and the Bank of England… as well as FOMC Minutes and Trade Balance, among a host of other Data Points.
Interestingly enough… we simply continue with “Bullish Sentiment” with most Majors and the Yen Crosses with a return of Risk Appetite… and the weak Dollar is keeping pressure on Gold as well.
I spoke a little about Multiple-Time Frames and some perspectives on why I personally prefer to work with Longer-Term Views overall in the first of my Weekend Posts ( the two previous Posts on the Blog…)
Our current Price Behavior on EUR/USD provides a fine Example here as the Unit… as with many Majors at this point… are ”Overextended” and “Overbought”.
This leads us to some curiosities for those who prefer IntraDay work in looking for potential “Entries of Execution”.
If one was to follow the Longer-Term View… Risk Appetite from purely a “Technical Sense” would not have been much of a surprise.
Here is the “Naked” Weekly Chart to illustrate my view, so give it a Click…. and Post-Time tonight is 2:15 GMT.



Here now is the Hourly View… where we see the manifestation continuing of that Longer-Term “Double/Rounded Bottom Formation” from up above on the Weekly.



The Pound Yen also gives us a “Similar” View with Risk Appetite and the struggling Yen… here is the Daily for some Perspective.





We will certainly check in with these two Units moving forward with our Update around 11:00 GMT during the European Session, so I will see you then!
In the Interim… I will return right around 7:00 GMT with the “Technical Perspective of the Majors” Report under the “Technical” Section right here on FXstreet.




Tags: Bank of England, Bank of Japan, central bank, cross, data point, dollar, EUR/USD, fundamental analysis, GBP/JPY, indicator, overbought, Price, Reserve Bank of Australia, sentiment, technical analysis, Yen

hefeiddd

Tags: currency, finance, financial markets, Foreign Exchange, Fundamentals, FX, media, news, volatilityWelcome To Weekend Thoughts!
Posted on April 4, 2009 at 12:58 in Commentary by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings Eveyone and welcome to the Weekend!
As I mentioned yesterday… I would like to get back to some more general types of thoughts and ideas on the Blog, so I will do a couple of Posts for you each weekend about some of the larger issues and ramblings that affect us in this Industry!
Part of my Impetus here is to discuss how other aspects of our lives in general affect the trading we do… as it seems so deeply tempting to “feel” as if Trading defines our “Identity”.
It is especially crucial for me in my own personal experiences… since I am “notoriously” known for always being around… always being in Webinars… always being engaged in some way with Trading and FXstreet Itself.
One aspect here is the concept of your “Playing Field”… meaning which Time-Cycles you may prefer to work with…
Early on as I developed from a Trader with Shorter-Term Views ( mainly from my early learning days with Equities in 1997 )… and transitioning to Longer-Term Views, I simply found that being “engaged” in activities kept me away from the Platforms and simply allowed me to allow myself  the opportunities to leave my Positions alone and let them run.
Certainly a deep Key to Consistency in Trading is this exact “Habit”.

For example, we can have some clear information with a Larger Perspective on this Time-Cycle…



…As opposed to focusing on the turmoil and “Noise” of This View…



I certainly do not have an issue with Multiple-Time Frame Analysis overall nor do I have an issue with any Time-Cyle you wish to work in…this is deeply personal to your individual preferences and Trading “Style”.
My point here is that whatever Time-Cycle you choose… remaining with that exact Cycle in all aspects of the Position is Key… since that Cycle is what defined your Criteria for the Trade in the first place!
I am hopeful this rather “simple” example of Consistency will surely help in your Trading process moving forward as it has my own!
See you tomorrow, and enjoy the rest of your Day!






Tags: analysis, Cycle, Dow Jones, equity, Time Frame, trading


We Begin Consolidation after Data Points Moving into the Weekend
Posted on April 3, 2009 at 11:14 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings, Everyone!
We have seen “subtle” Corrective Price Action moving forward from the London Close… with Instituional Re-Positioning heading into the weekend.
Most Majors are, indeed, beginning Areas of Consolidation with developing Range-Bound Activity moving forward.
Despite this… as is usual with most Data Points from day to day… Price Behavior is reverting to the “Mean” Areas of signficant Support and Resistance as well as Dynamic Areas from an IntrDay perspective.
We bring up the Hourlies now of GPB/USD, EUR/USD, and finally EUR/GBP for a feel of how our “Battle of the Channel” continues along between Fiber and Cable.
Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 16:10 GMT.








I would like to begin some Weekend Entries that are roughly ”reminiscent of my general Thoughts Ideas” I used to give early on in the larger Daily Blog Entries… so I am hoping they will provide some “Food for Thought” and be beneficial to all of you heading into the following week!




Tags: consolidation, continuation, currency pair, dollar, employment, EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, euro, Europe, GBP/USD, pound, range trading, United Kingdom


NFP Slightly Clips the Dollar and the Yen… But Remains In Line
Posted on April 3, 2009 at 9:16 in Uncategorized by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings Again, Everyone!
The U.S. overall has lost about 5.1 million Jobs since the Recession “officially” began… although NFP Data Points Headline Numbers are largely are “In Line” with Consensus this month.
( Of course…it is the Numbers “Inside” the Numbers that are the true Key  of any Data Release…)
We will not revisit the Macro-Data here, and simply move on with Her Majesty and see we have certainly appreciated in Price moving forward.
Here is the DAILY Capture, so give it a Click, and Post-Time is 14:15 GMT.



( Now… all of you did not think I could go all week without my Longer-Term Views, did you?…. You know me better than that!… hee hee…     

My original thoughts on some Dollar and Yen Strength may come to Fruition today… as we will certainly have plenty of Institutional Profit-Taking and Covering since it is Friday and then end still the end of the Quarter/Month as well.
We may simply see this in Consolidative Retracements as we move towards the London Close… so we will stay on top of the situation.

I will be back once again for another Update, and we will check in then!




Tags: appreciation, GBP/USD, pound, resistance, support


GPB/USD Progresses with Appreciation Looking Towards 1.49…
Posted on April 3, 2009 at 6:21 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings again, Everyone for a quick Update ahead of NFP!
Her Majesty, GBP/USD, is riding the “Wave of Momentum” by being the G20 Host as rather positive PMI Data Points come in to rally Cable against Her U.S. Sibling!
UK PMI clocks in at a positive 45.6, as opposed to 43.2… and still well aobve Consensus @ 43.6.
What is unique here is the “Indicator” of some slight “Stability”… ( and I use the word with Caution…)… as most UK Data this week has been largely positive.
The U.K. itself may be getting to a point where we also are seeing my own city of Phoenix “in Principle” of the Housing Sector.
Being one of the first to get hammered with a Housing Bubble… we should “theoretically” be one of the first Area in the States to see some “Recovering Stability”, if you will.
The U.K. is similar… in that being one of the first Economies to “fall to the Recessionary Monster in the English Channel”… it therefore may be one of the first to begin Recovery…. an unusual Analogy here… but you see my Point.   
Here is our Hourly of Cable again where we are seeing some Key Fib Variants come into Play, so give the Capture a Click… Post-Time is 11:20 GMT.



We may simply continue with Flag Completion moving along with Price Appreciation… or the “Counter-Intuitive” Dollar Strength that may result  from NFP Data may bring us Rejection, and back down to our Highlighted Fib “Cluster” Area… We shall certainly see!


Of course…I will be with you Post-NFP Data to see any reactionary concerns… and we will stay with The Queen, and also bring EUR/USD back into the Picture as well!




Tags: Cable, Data, G20, GBP/USD, Her Majesty, pound, Purchasing Managers Index, Queen, United Kingdom


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hefeiddd

Posted on April 2, 2009 at 20:49 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

Greetings, Everyone and welcome to our Monthly Day of Friday Follies!
As we all know…the most volatile and literally most important Data Point for our Foreign Exchange concerns comes tomorrow with the March 2009 Non-Farm Payrolls Data.
While the Labor Market in the U.S. is obviously weak… ( even those “Genius” friends of mine, the CVJ Fan Club Guys, know this…hee hee hee …..),  we may be in store for deeply negative losses with a Concensus and “Rhetoric” out there of a -660K Data Point… while a staggering 700K Loss to enter The Books certainly is possible!
With the latest round of Pessimism and Dire Straits with Employment in the U.S. ( and around the world, for that matter…),  Dollar and Yen Strength may surely return in the Climate if NFP comes out “Weak” is simply due to the Safe-Haven Inflows coming back into the Dollar… hence its’ Low-Yielding Properties with add Strength here…as well as with it’s “Brother”, The Yen.
We have noticed several instances where all of these Factors will correlate and unwind in and out of each other, and NFP will be no different within the current Enviroment.
“Counter-Intuition” is back from Vacation!
As I always do on this Day… some Caveats to mention.
I do not personally work with this Report and specific Data Release… and I do not know many Professional and Seasoned Traders who do.
I will certainly observe the Data and be aware of any Open Positions I may (and do) have… but “Execution” of a Position exclusively out of NFP is not conducive to my “Style” of Work.
Another aspect for me is I tend to move away from “Primary” Dollar-Related Pairs during this time for additional Protective Risk Exposure… but in this case… let’s stick with our GBP/USD and AUD/USD Units since we have been working with them lately here in the Blog.
Here are the Hourly Views again to see where we have progressed, so give the Captures a Click for Commentary.
Post-Time is about 1:50 GMT.






Keep in mind we simply may continue to have “Muted” Price Action going forward… and I will be with you for another Blog Update soon after the “Technical Perspectives of the Majors” Report at 7:00 GMT!




Tags: AUD/USD, Data, employment, GBP/USD, jobs, nfp, NOn-Farm Payrolls

Equities Continue Appreciation with Dollar and Yen Weakness
Posted on April 2, 2009 at 11:02 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings once again, Everyone!
Now that the ECB Data Points and Rhetoric are “digested” into today’s Market Activities… we move on to another visit with Price Behavior Developments with The Queen, GPB/USD, and Her Subject, Aussie… AUD/USD.
We have seen marked movement with both Units… even since our “introductory” Post a few hours back.
Here are the Hourly Views of both again, so give them a Click for Commentary and “potential” Corrective Areas.
Post-Time is 16:00 GMT.






Please be Mindful of any additional “Rhetoric” coming out of the G20 Meeting today… including the IMF Content and the Mark-to-Market situation on the NewsWires as well as any Voting with the “new” U.S. Budget going to The House of Congress.
Volatility may certainly continue… as we prepare for “Another Round” of Institutional Re-Positioning ahead of the NFP Data Points tomorrow!
Of course… I will be with you at the Asian-Pacific Sector to check on any developments that may transpire in the Interim.




Tags: AUD/USD, Budget, Dow Jones, equity, G20, GBP/USD, indices, Mark-to-Market, NYSE, rhetoric

Tricky Trichet Does It Again Despite Upside Levels Reached
Posted on April 2, 2009 at 8:21 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings Again, Everyone for another Update!
“My Main Man”, Jean-Claude Trichet, is back to his “Old Classic Self” with his unique “Code” of Rhetoric and Surprises for the Markets!
The European Central Bank clocks in at only a .25bps Cut in the Overnight Rate with an emphasis on initial Commentary at Trichet’s Press Conference on Weak Economic Activity so far this year, and “Not the Lowest Limit for the Key Rate”.
Technically…the EUR/USD Unit did reach our “Coveted” Resistance Level as we are now holding Dynamic Resistance @ the 118.0% Fib Variant @ the 1.3493 Area.
Failure at the 1.3500 Handle may bring a “Transitive Rollover” of Resistance-becoming-Support @ 1.3415/00 Areas… and a Violation of 1.3500 can see the 1.3580’s in the Near-Term, although a slight Retracement may be necessary anyway.
Here is our Hourly once again, so give it a Click for Commentary and Post-Time is 13:20 GMT.



Let’s briefly bring in The Queen and Aussie in preparation for our next Update as we move along in our Day.
Here are their Hourly Views as well, so give a Click for Basic Commentary to simply observe where we are since we have not visited these two Units in a while.





Of course…back with all of you soon to concentrate on these two Units as well as more Macro-Data coming in as we head into Non-Farm payrolls tomorrow…having Initial Jobless Claims supporting another “Bleak” NFP outcome tomorrow.
10 Minutes until the NYSE Open sees Equity Futures higher… which is indicative of the Weaker Dollar with our “Inverse” Correlation.




Tags: AUD/USD, ECB, EUR/USD, Europe, G20, GBP/USD, inflation, Jean-Claude Trichet, Jobless Claims, nfp, Non-Farm Payroll, United Kingdom


EUR/USD Prepares for ECB Action with Appreciation
Posted on April 2, 2009 at 6:28 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings again, Everyone!
Our Friend, the Euro… along with the Yen Crosses and Cable and the Aussie… return with Risk Appetite and positive Data during the majority of early Activity in the European Session.
Let’s bring the EUR/USD back in , as well as the EUR/GBP on the Hourlies to take a look at these Progressions.
We are about 15 Minutes ahead of the ECB… and Institutional Re-Positioning has already taken place in terms of Price Behavior.
We now look to the Decision to be “Priced In and In Line”…so our next Catalyst to either reach Key levels North…or Violate to the Downside… will be the ever-important Rhetoric of of Jean-Claude Trichet.
The KEY will be any discussion of “Participation” in any sort of Global Quantitative Easing Concepts as the other Central Bank Entities are doing as well… Trichet may simply have His Hand Forced here….
Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 11:30 GMT.





Of course… I will be back with you for another Update during the EU/US Overlap as we “digest” the Rhetoric and Data… and then have a look at The Queen Herself… and Her Loyal Subject… The Aussie!



Tags: EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, quantitative easing, Queen

hefeiddd

Tags: EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, quantitative easing, QueenThe Queen and Trichet… The Battle of the Channel Continues!
Posted on April 1, 2009 at 20:08 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings, Everyone to Tonight’s Battle!
We once again stop by the English Channel on our way home from the G20 “Conference/Party” and check on the latest Swimming Match of Her Majesty, The Queen Pound Sterling… and Her Skillful Adversary… who we shall name “Euro Trichet” !

“CVJ!… You were not even there!… We were the largest Flag-Waving-Sign-Carrying Protesters around!” “We vilified The Queen for interrupting our BBC Comedies on the Tellie… and drew funny faces on our Signs of Trichet for all to see!…..WE we were EVEN interviewed on NEWSNIGHT!!!”,  the CVJ Fan Club Guys say with deep rebellious satisfaction.
“That is interesting, Guys… as I wondered who cleaned out the Commodity Accounts last week…. You Boys paying for your Big Trip!” , I say….. hee hee hee…         


In all seriousness, the ECB is up against the “Proverbial” Wall moving forward… despite the expected and largely “Price-In” Rate Cut from 1.50% to 1.00% for its’ Overnight Rate.
In our “Match” here… Her Majesty once again looks to be “Ahead of the Curve” in Her Swimming Skills… as the Euro continues to weaken in the Immediate-Term with Mr. Trichet not “Cranking The Throttle” for a little Policy Momentum.
Here are the Daily and Hourly Views since we have not had a visit in a while… so give the Captures a Click for Commentary.
Post-Time is a bit “early” for me @ 1:00 GMT… as I wish to check in for another Blog Update rather soon after the “Technical Perspectives of the Majors” Report at 7:00 GMT.






The ECB is notoriously “independent” in truly adhering to an “Inflationary-Following Model” … but now… it has deep Global Pressure to enact some sort of “Uniform” Quantitative-Easing Policy.
Of course… My Friend, Trichet, says nothing in his usual Tactful fashion.
Perhaps that Tact is needed more than ever these days in terms of Clear and Decisive Action.





Tags: EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, European Central Bank, GBP/USD, inflation, interest rate, Jean-Claude Trichet, quantitative easing


U.S Data Points Slightly Positive… Although Rangebound Action Continues
Posted on April 1, 2009 at 10:58 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings again, Everyone!
Our overall Data Points come in slightly positive as Month-over-Month Pending Home Sales, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Month-over-Month  Construction Spending clock in better than expected… although the ADP Figures and pending NFP Numbers Friday may simply keep heavy “weight” on any significant U.S. Dollar Appreciation.
As we continue with some Volatility across our Units… we still are “caught” in these Larger Macro-Ranges, as the Dollar Itself remains “muted” with this Data.
The Sentiment of the G20 Activities, and especially the European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Press Conference, and Trichet’s Commentary are keeping the EUR/USD Unit in check through tomorrow.
The G20, at this point, may go either way in terms of a massive “Reactionary’ Stance… as in my personal opinion… the Protests literally seem more “interesting” than the actual Content of the Conference itself!
We have not really had any significant ground on the Euro… although on the “Flip Side”… USD/JPY still attempts to reach for the Coveted 100.00 Handle.
Here are the Hourlies again of both Units, so give them a Click, as always, for Commentary.
Post-Time is 16:00 GMT.





At this point… we simply maintain Patience as Observation continues.
A always, I will be back with you later, or at least tonight, for our “Big Blog Update”, as we head into a heavy Day of Activity tomorrow!





Tags: consolidation, continuation, Cross-Rates, EUR/USD, Home Sales, ISM, USD/JPY, Yen


Equities Fall at the U.S. Open while EUR/USD Attempts to Hold
Posted on April 1, 2009 at 8:52 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings again, for another Update!
Plenty of Volatility keeps the European Session /U.S. Session Overlap moving along with Variants of Risk Appetite and Risk Aversion… meaning “Noise, Noise, and more Noise”…hee hee….   
EUR/USD is still a bit “Clean” with Price Behavior on the Hourly…as we are “caught” in a Consolidative Channel of 1.3160’s to roughly 1.3300/1.3330’s.
While in the Immediate-Term… we look to Cap here with, perhaps, some “Triple Toppish” Behavior… in the Near-Term…we look for potential Dollar Weakness ( and Yen weakness as well…) to continue moving forward.
EUR/JPY also is finding Yen Strength in the Immediate-Term moving forward… and it will be interesting to see how Construction Spending, ISM , and Pending Home Sales out of the U.S. may simply “Bleed Out” to the Yen from the Dollar… as these two “Old Friends” are walking largely “In Concert” lately…
Here are the Hourly Views of both, so give them a Click for Commentary… and Post-Time is 13:50 GMT.






Of course, I will be back with another “Double-Duty Before-and-After” Update when the rest of the Data Points hit in about 10 Minutes!


Tags: channel, crude oil, data point, EUR/USD, housing, Institute for Supply Management, Inventories, risk appetite, Risk Aversion


Yen Slides on Tankan Data Points and Weak Repatriation
Posted on March 31, 2009 at 21:53 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Welcome to Wednesday, Everyone!
The Japanese Confidence Sentiment Survey, Tankan, comes in with it’s fastest fall on Record…posting a reading of -58 with Big Manufacturers… and a 34-point decline off of -24 in December’s Diffusion Index.
The Yen itself, as well as the Dollar, have Risk Appetite back in View with Repatriation and “Safe-Haven” Sentiment coming to a close, if you will.
The USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and the GBP/JPY all peel off on “Corrective Counter-Intuition” with Profit-Taking of the Month and the Quarter.
Here are the Hourly Views of all three Units, so give them a Click for Commentary, as always… and Post-Time is 3:00 GMT.








We will certainly check on these during the European Session ( barring any Connection Issues, hopefully…) and I will be back with you in a few hours as 7:00 GMT for the “European Technical Perspectives of the Majors” Report!




Tags: EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, Inflows, Japan, Outflows, repatriation, sentiment, USD/JPY


The Majors Consolidate as the Yen itself Continues to Weaken
Posted on March 31, 2009 at 14:11 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Hello again, Everyone!
A brief Update to see where we are as we head into the “Doldrums” of the day, and look towards the Asian-Pacific Sector in a few hours.
Our Majors, in general… ( Euro, Swissy, Aussie, etc.)… are beginning to clearly quiet down although the USD/JPY and most of the Yen Crosses continue to grind away with Yen weakness.
Let’s have a look at Dollar Yen and notice some Areas of Confluence on an IntraDay basis.
( The 50% Fib Variant is “buried” under the Transitive Rollover…but clocks in @ 98.88)
Give the Capture a Click, and Post-Time is 19:05 GMT.




Of course… we will discuss the looming Rate Decision out of the European Central Bank as there appears to be resistance to following the “Quantitative Easing” Model…. more on that this evening!




Tags: Japan, Major Currency Pairs, transition, USD/JPY, weakness


Euro and Swissy Reach Key Levels… Will We Find Continuation?
Posted on March 31, 2009 at 9:46 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings Again, Everyone for another Update!
( My apologies for the slight delay… as we are experiencing some Connection Issues…)
Our Two Friends, here… EUR/USD and USD/CHF… have continued on with their Price Levels that came into View… so we now see if Continuation with Directionality can continue.
With the Final Trading Day of the Month…we may expect “Extensions and Truncations” of Price Action across the Board… with Institutional Activity squaring the Books for the Month, Profit-Taking, and Covering… so always something to be mindful of.
The Asian Sector did kick into Gear with this exact “Plan of Action”, if you will… as we saw Appreciation in the Dollar Yen Unit  as well as the Pacific Dollars of the Aussie and the Kiwi moving forward.

Here are the Hourlies once more of the Euro and the Swissy… so give the Captures a Click…and Post-Time is 14:45 GMT.






I will be back with you later for more Updates, ( if my Intermittent Connection Issues stay resolved…), as we move on with our Day!



Tags: cluster, confluence, continuation, EUR/USD, Fibonacci, USD/CHF


« Newer posts – Older posts »

hefeiddd

Posted on March 30, 2009 at 21:44 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

Greetings Everyone!
While we have Macro-Consolidative Behaviors on the Euro and Swissy… we are back within our “Inversion” Relationship between the two Units as they look for opposing Price Behaviors.
Some Key Levels are coming into View on both Units, and we will simply see if any “Projective Concepts” come to fruition for the Integrity of the Trends.
Here are the Hourly Views of both Units, so give the Captures a Click as always… and Post-Time is 2:45 GMT.






As always, I will return around 7:00 GMT for the “Technical Perspectives of the Majors” Report… as well as more Updates as we continue with our Day!




Tags: appreciation, correcton, correlation, depreciation, EUR/USD, inversion, Price, USD/CHF

EUR/USD Looks To Test Key Dynamic Areas with Continuing Weakness
Posted on March 30, 2009 at 11:35 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim Salem2 Comments »


Greetings Everyone, and great to be back with you for another week!
With Macro-Fundamentals and plenty of “Rhetoric” today on several Fronts… we continue on with Risk Aversion and a stronger Dollar and Yen.
We reach a Key Level on the Daily View… and continued violation of this Area brings 1.3084-1.3034 Range if we fall in Depreciation.
If Support does, indeed, hold here… Bullish Views will desire a “Clearance” of the 1.3200 Handle.
Here are the Daily and the Hourly Views…so be sure to give them a Click, as always… and Post-Time is 16:30 GMT.






Of course, I will be with you again this evening to see how all of this plays out with a “Rhetoric-Filled Day”!… as well as the Technical Perspectives of the Majors @ around 7:00 GMT.






Tags: appreciation, depreciation, EUR/USD, euro, Fibonacci, risk, risk appetite, Risk Aversion, Trichet

Greetings To All… A Personal Issue…
Posted on March 29, 2009 at 21:04 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

Hello to Everyone !
I will be away today… as some health issues have arisen with my Grandmother… who is 99 years old.
Sharp as a tack… ( She does the Newspaper Crossword Puzzle everyday in 10 minutes flat…) … her body is, indeed, rather fragile these days… so we need to tend to her needs.
I will be with all of you tomorrow hopefully with Goodness coming your way… and I thank all of you in advance with sincerity for your thoughts and concerns.
Sincerely,
- Tim -


Yen and the Dollar Roll On with Solid Corrective Sentiment
Posted on March 27, 2009 at 11:10 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings again to All!
With our last two previous Posts/Updates…we have simply seen Price Succession as we have moved from the Asian-Pacific Sector into the U.S. Session over the last 12+ hours now….as we favor this continued Strength in the Immediate-Term.
The Yen Crosses have behaved in “Classical Textbook” Fashion in terms of  Price Formations and Corrective ease… as various Flags/Pennants are under formation on the IntraDay Hourly Views.
On the Macro-Term… our old friend, “Rhetoric”, appeared once again out of Japan indicating no real interest in any sort of “new” Global Currency, as Japan has no interest in changing the “Status Quo”… and they do not wish to discuss the Issue at next week’s G20 Conference.
This, on the back of strong PCE and Michigan Sentiment… gave the Dollar and Yen Bulls some “Catalysts” to continue Corrections against their recent Weaknesses.
Here are our Hourlies again, so give them a Click for Commentary.
Post-Time is 16:10 GMT.






Have a fine weekend, Everyone and as always… I will be with you again for the Sydney Open Sunday afternoon ( my time) !




Tags: continuation, correction, currency, dollar, economy, EUR/JPY, finance, G20, GBP/JPY, global, Japan, Reserve, Yen


Yen Strength Shows Itself in EUR/JPY and especially GBP/JPY
Posted on March 27, 2009 at 2:37 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings Everyone!
As promised, here is an Update coming off of our last Post about 5 hours ago… and my thoughts on the “Rhetoric” we spoke of earlier now has a bit of supportive evidence with Current Yen Strength and Sentiment.
We can view these Corrective Behaviors two ways, really… As supportive evidence that either The Yen is not quite ready to retire… or as part of the Integrity as a Pullback in our Trend and resumes being “Carried” ( as in Carry Trade…) in the Medium-Term View.
While we are early in the European Session… let’s have a check with EUR/JPY as well as GBP/JPY… as the Pound Yen Cross shows even more Yen clarity.
Both Captures are the Hourlies, so give the a Click… and Post-Time is 7:40 GMT.





Of course…We will stick with these Crosses throughout today and even check in with their EUR/USD and GBP/USD “Cousins” as well!

hefeiddd

Tags: England, EUR/GBY, EUR/USD, euro, Euro Yen, Europe, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, Japan, pound, pound yen, YenEUR/JPY Signals A Fresh Look At… Carry Trades?
Posted on March 26, 2009 at 21:48 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Happy Friday Everyone!
With the Bullish Week Wall St. has had… we hear that obligatory, yet cautious concept of “Rhetoric” again, as we have discussed under a few Scenarios over the last couple of weeks.
There is, indeed, continuing “Talk” out there about so much “Basing”  and “Bottoming” not just in the Foreign Exchange world… but in literally all Financial Markets… that incessant “Talk” of a “Parabolic Paradigm Shift” can be seen all around us.
In my personal opinion… our Climate is too premature for such Rhetoric… but nevertheless…  it is affecting the Markets and it does exist within the current Risk Appetite environment.
Perhaps the “clearest” Examples of the Risk Appetite Model are the Yen Crosses that we referred to earlier in the week with our “Four Traveler’s Theme”.
In the end… what we are really dealing with is “PERCEPTION”.
So is Risk Appetite truly back???…
Are the “Yen and Dollar Days of Strength” over???

Here are the Daily Time-Cycle to clarify my thought here… and we will check in with the Hourly around 8:00 GMT as well…
Give the Capture a Click, and Post-Time is 2:45 GMT.



We do see some Corrective nature is needed here going forward… but like its’ own Major Unit of EUR/USD… these potential “Deeper” Pullbacks simply clarify the inherent strength of these Trends.

I will be back with you in a few hours for the Currency Majors Technical Perspective at right around 7:00 GMT!




Tags: carry trade, derivative, EUR/JPY, euro, financial, markets, risk, risk appetite, Wall Street, Yen


Her Majesty, GBP/USD, Pullsback on Her English Channel Swim
Posted on March 26, 2009 at 13:05 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings again, Everyone for an Update with The Queen!
Slight Dollar strength over Hourly Time-Cycle has taken us to our Probable Levels we spoke of during our last Update.
We cut the Transitive Rollover S & R Area and now look to either form another T.R…. or simply engage more Dollar Momentum and head for the Topside Channel Confluence… although this Area may be Well-Bid by Limit-Buy Orders.
Here is the Hourly once more, so give it a Click… and Post-Time is 18:05 GMT.



Of course… I will be back this evening ( my time) for another large Blog Entry… as we move towards the final Trading Day of the week!





Tags: Cable, channel, dollar, England, English Channel, GBP/USD, pound, Pound Dollar, resistance, Sterling, support, U.K.


U.S. GDP and Jobless Claims Clip Recent Dollar Strength
Posted on March 26, 2009 at 8:26 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings Everyone for another brief Update!
The Final 4th Quarter 2008 G.D.P. @ -6.4%  from -6.6% Consensus…  and Jobless Claims @ 652K vs. 644K last week come with slight deterioration …but largely “In Line As Expected” with Consensus…. ( despite GDP being the weakest in about 26 years…).
Nothing really new of Note here… as Sentiment looks “forward” to a bit more Optimism moving ahead… and for our purposes we will check in with EUR/USD…as we are a few minutes away from the NYSE Open…so we can see how this Data plays out with Block-Order  Fills in the Futures as Execution begins and Sentiment sets in…
Here is the Capture, so give it a Click as always… and Post-Time is 13:25 GMT.



As always… I will return for more Updates as we move through our Day!




Tags: consensus, Data, EUR/USD, euro, expectation, GDP, Gross Domestic Product, Jobless Claims


We Stop By for Another High Tea with The Queen!… GBP/USD
Posted on March 25, 2009 at 21:29 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Happy Thursday!
We certainly had a volatile day yesterday with all kinds of erratic and slightly “irrational” Behaviors… some nervousness… insecurity… and perhaps a lack of confidence did not ease the situation either!
What?… All of you thought I was talking about a Currency Pair???
I Think Not!
I was referring to the “Rhetoric” of Treasury Secretary Geithner!….
In all seriousness… the “Dollar’s Fate as the Reserve Currency” Topic will not be revisited here… as I am certain all of you are familiar with his Comments yesterday causing deep volatility for the Foreign Exchange world…( and all Markets for that matter for several moments…)
This brings up a point I made  recently about the Topic of “Jawboning”, and the Effect of Rhetoric in general on the Currency Markets as a whole.
Mt. Geithner’s Speech was a perfect example of how Rhetoric and Words will affect the Climate more than even the most striking Data-Point Variants!
What is interesting is where it leaves (left) a Unit like our Beloved Queen… the Pound Dollar.
With the G-20 Meeting in the U.K. next week, another visit with GBP/USD seemed appropriate… as all Players at the Party will be using Pounds in their transactions while visiting…
Here is where we are on the Daily… so give the Capture a Click as always for Commentary… and then we will move to the Hourly for a bit more clarity.
Post-Time is a bit early this evening (for me) at 2:30 GMT.






I will see everyone for a look at the Majors with the European Technical Perspective right around 7:00 GMT!




Tags: currency, dollar, exchange, fluctuation, GBP/CHF, GBP/USD, Geithner, money, pound, Pound Dollar, printing, quantitative easing, Sterling, Switzerland, U.K., United Kingdom


EUR/USD Remains in Congestion Despite Slight Bullish Sentiment
Posted on March 25, 2009 at 8:18 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings again, Everyone!
We stick with our “Master” Major, the Euro, and consider some of the Data Points that came our way after our last visit with the Currency Majors Technical Perspective at the London/EU Open.
German IFO Business Sentiment clocks in as expected at 81.2 vs. 82.2 with Expectation improving slightly…. and U.S. Durable Orders clock in quite nicely up from -7.9% to +3.4% overall, and Core @ -3.9% vs. -5.9% in January.
Of course… no real significant strength for the Euro in the Session… and no significant strength for the Dollar either…. so Consolidation continues albeit our Highlighted Areas during the last Post were reached.
When we see such Macro-Consolidation continuing along after such large activity and directionality… it is not surprising for Data to simply be ignored, or at least have a slight impact.
Here is the Hourly, so give it a Click for Commentary… and Post-Time is 13:20 GMT.



We really are “caught” here at that same “Range” of 1.3500-1.3550’s or so, and need a larger “Catalyst” of some sort to really move to either side.
Downside Risk needs to slice through 1.3416/00 Static Support for any Dollar strength and momentum to continue on.
Sentiment in the Immediate-Term does favor the Upside… but a clean slice through 1.3560/80’s Resistance is favored for solid Sentiment.

We are 10 minutes from the NYSE Open and Treasury Secretary Geithner speaking again, so we just may find this “Macro-Catalyst” to give Fiber the “impetus” He needs to travel on!
Of course, I shall return for another Update as we move forward!




Tags: congestion, consolidation, data points, Durable Goods, EUR/USD, euro, Europe, Germany, IFO, zone


« Newer posts – Older posts »

hefeiddd

Posted on March 24, 2009 at 22:17 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

Greetings and Happy Wednesday, Everyone!
With Corrective Behavior across the Markets as we continue to “digest” the Geithner Plan and other “Rhetoric” that seems to be coming our way incessantly… perhaps we can drill down for some Technical Details with the EUR/USD and the NZD/USD for some clarity with our latest round of Risk Appetite.
Our “Four Travelers”, the Yen Crosses, hold significant Corrections on an IntraDay basis and have simply followed their “Cousins”, the Major Dollar Pairs.
Interestingly enough, the Majors have tended to hold “deeper” Pullbacks than their “Yen Cousins” in this environment.
Let’s take a look at the Hourly Views of these two… so give the Captures a Click and Post-Time is 3:15 GMT.






It will be interesting to see if we simply continue with Depreciation and a strengthening “Corrective” Dollar and Yen… since we know a “Common Caveat” in this type of Climate:
“The Deeper the Pullback… The Stronger The Trend…”
So let’s see if this does, indeed, hold true!… at least on a Macro-View.

Of course this begs the REAL Question… “A True Paradigm Shift?… or simply another Bear Market Rally…”



P.S. - Do not forget the “Technical Perspectives of the Majors” Report in a few hours at 7:00 GMT !
          I do apologize again for yesterday’s email issue… and again… it has been resolved.





Tags: bear market rally, channel, correction, cousins, dollar, ECB, EUR/USD, euro, Euro Zone, Europe, New Zealand, NZD/USD, paradigm, quantitative easing, siblings, Trichet

U.S. Equities Open Give Yen Travelers A Reprieve… But Not for Long
Posted on March 24, 2009 at 10:22 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings Everyone for another Update!
( My apologies for the Currency Majors Technical Perspective this morning at 7:00 GMT. Some email Uni-Code issues between myself and FXstreet prevented the Report from being received, and the issue has been resolved. )
Our Yen Travelers are taking a Reprieve in their Rallies, as they are getting low on their First leg of Frequent Flyer Miles!…  ;-)
With the NYSE Open a few minutes ago, we are seeing the “Corrective Retracements” that are fully expected in this Climate… considering our Crosses/Equities Correlation is back “In-Sync”  for the moment.
So as we know… these Pullbacks will give us our “Inverse” Correlation with the Yen and the Dollar for some strength as of this writing.
We may see our “usual” 2nd-Hour Reversal that often occurs in the NYSE and the Dow after all the Block Orders are filled… so our Yen Crosses…( and the Majors for that matter…) may have “shallow” Retracements in the immediate-term… but of course… we do not know with certainty,  be Mindful as always.
We switch to the Hourly Views of our “Travelers” and see if we can pinpoint some of these Key Dynamic Levels of Activity as we move forward.
We pull off many of the larger Levels and work within the Hourly Context for a bit more clarity for our IntraDay Friends and Colleagues out there!
Give the Captures a Click, as always… and Post-Time this morning (for me) is 15:20 GMT.












In my personal view… I see these Pullback as “Corrective” in nature only for the “health and integrity” of these Current Trends… so the Institutional Views may simply favor a “Buying on the Dips” Mentality here.
We will see how our current Climate of “Resting” Pullback fair, and I will be back with you for an Update prior to this evening !




Tags: Bernanke, correction, Dow Jones, equities, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, Geithner, New York, pullback, Stock

The Four Travelers: EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, and NZD/JPY
Posted on March 23, 2009 at 21:50 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim Salem1 Comment »


Greetings Everyone!
I continue on with my “Themes of Four” Idea as we move around the Markets, and since the “Base” Currencies of these four Units are literally all over the Map… I thought “Travelers” would be a fine Descriptor!
( Of course… we have other Yen Crosses, but I chose these as they are the most familiar and certainly the most Liquid in general…)
With a good 9 hours after our last Update… The Dollar and especially the Yen have surely been “Booed off the Performance Stage”, after we received Details of the U.S. Treasury’s Plan to handle the Toxic Assets situation had a few hours of Corrective Behavior to digest.
As the Dow surges 497 Points today… it brings along the Yen Crosses and most Majors right along with it… so those large “Macro-Correlations” are back in Sync for the time being.
( For our purposes here being the “Inverse” Correlation of Stronger Equities/Weaker Dollar. )
The Yen is certainly no stranger to this Correlation as well, as they are accustomed to Quantitative Easing concepts and years of a deeply weak Yen.
So… we come to another Performance of ”The Traveling Adventures of Quantitative Easing”… as our Dramatic Play travels to Central Bank Theaters throughout the world!
“Oh look at you, CVJ!… Mr. Funny-Analogy Man!… Always has to throw some allusion to Art and Culture in there….. Just get to the Captures, Picasso!…”,  the CVJ Fan Club Guys say with deep sarcasm….  
” Do not panic, Boys!… You guys look like you could need a bit of Culture anyway… ”
Seriously… we have very similar Price Action and Behavior on all four Units… with ascending Wedges/Triangles severely violated to the Upside, and Key Dynamic Support, Resistance, and Fibonacci Levels coming into View.
For now… we will stick with the Dailies to see the Macro-View… (although Pound Yen is the Hourly due to Key Levels activated…) and then drill down with our next Update.
Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 2:50 GMT.









Some Corrective Behavior is surely needed with all of the Yen Crosses…including Dollar Yen itself… so be mindful of this as we move forward in the Asian Session.
I will see everyone around 7 GMT for the Currency Majors Technical Perspective, and then we will see where we are with the Crosses as well!





Tags: AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, Japan, NZD/JPY, Yen


Dollar and Yen Hit the Stage with Some Strength at the N.Y. Open
Posted on March 23, 2009 at 11:10 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings again, Everyone !
( My apologies for the lack of our mid-Session European Update… I was working out some specifics on the new Technical Report at the beginning of the European Session…)
We continue on with the Four Siblings, and we did see some expected corrections come our way in an IntraDay basis.
Despite the additional Rhetoric on the Toxic Situation by Treasury Secretary Geithner… we were already approaching some Key Levels on “Either Side of the Fence” in these four “main” Units.
( My “little Hourly Channels” for the European Technical Report were violated all around in the immediate-term several hours back as we have moved forward from about 7:30 GMT…)
None of this should be surprising.. with the Yen Crosses leading the way in Bullish Momentum off of the Sydney Open yesterday… so when we see such smooth and strong Momentum… Corrective Price Action is expected… even if it is a bit “shallow” within our Hourly “Ranges” here….
Let’s take a look, so give the Captures a Click for Commentary, as always… and Post-Time this morning (for me) is 16:10 GMT.










I will return this evening ( my time) as always, for tomorrow’s larger Blog entry… and be sure to be mindful of your Key Areas as we move into the “Doldrums” onto the Asian Session.

hefeiddd

Tags: channel, dollar, dynamic, EUR/USD, euro, GBP/USD, JPY, pound, range, resistance, static, support, USD, USD/CHF, YenThe Four Siblings Begin the Week Heading North…
Posted on March 22, 2009 at 22:18 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings, and welcome to a new week, Everyone!
We find very “subtle” corrections from Friday’s Activity to be largely invalidated… with a weak Dollar and Yen continuing to be seen with Price Action.
While out on my Longer-Term Views… we still really are in these large “Ranges” of Consolidative Activity… the IntraDay Time-Cycles are showing Bullish activity and even violating some “Dynamic” Levels as of this writing.
The EUR/USD and GBP/USD are a bit more Stout than their “Other Siblings”… USD/CHF and USD/JPY.
Let’s have a look at the Hourly Captures, so give them a Click for Commentary… and Post-Time is 3:20 GMT.










I will be back with you during the European Session for another Update… as the “Four Siblings” certainly appear to be geared towards Key Levels as we move forward!





Tags: bearish, bullish, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, resistance, support, USD/CHF, USD/JPY


Corrective Behavior Begins as We Close Our Week
Posted on March 20, 2009 at 12:35 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings Again, Everyone!
With the risk of sounding redundant… the Corrective nature of Price Action we spoke of last evening is finally coming into view across most Units.
The Euro continues with some slight downward pressure… and our Aussie does as well… but we are still out of reach of immediate-term Retracements here.
While it is late in the “Trading Day on a Friday”… we may still be mindful of “Covering Positions” as we move along.
The FOMC provided a massive Catalyst for Institutional Views to execute Positions… and the Big Boys may choose to head home with their Rewards for the weekend!
A quick look at again at these two Units… as we wrap up the week.
Give them a Click, and I have reverted them back to essentially “Naked” Charts and simply removed former Commentary.
( We can check back with them Sunday, as always… )
Post-Time is 17:35 GMT.






Gaps this weekend are surely possible… as “Block Orders” may certainly be filled right when Markets re-open Sunday in the Asia-Pacific Sector.
Have a fine weekend, and I will see you Sunday, as always, for the “Sydney Open”!




Tags: AUD/USD, consolidation, correction, EUR/USD, pullback, retracement, Sydney


We Patiently Roll Along with EUR/USD and AUD/USD
Posted on March 20, 2009 at 6:10 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings Everyone!
Once again… Consolidation rules most of our Markets on this Friday… and our Euro and Aussie are no exception.
With Quantitative Easing rolling along from the Federal Reserve… and the deep and heavy “Weight” now of falling Treasury Inflows… in my personal opinion…the massive Spending Stimulus Packages and “Big Ben” Bernanke throwing cash out of the Helicopter again… using Caution as we move forward is an understatement!
( Come to think of it… Mr. Bernanke is speaking today in my city of Phoenix at an Independent Banker’s Conference… maybe I will have to go down there and get a ride in the Helicopter!… hee hee…   
So how are the EUR/USD and AUD/USD handling this?… and how is the Euro handling its’ deeply-poor Data Points concerning Industrial Production?
Once again… we go to our old Analogy of “Strong vs. Weak”…
The “Weight” of the Federal Reserve’s actions and the weak Dollar simply make even weak EuroZone Data look “positive”… so once again, “Counter-Intuition” enters the Scenario!
Technically… Consolidation still Rules The Day as we move forward… so here are the Hourlies of both Units.
To emphasize just how deep we are into Consolidation… I even left the Aussie Capture intact from our last Post!
Commentary on the Captures, so be sure to give them a Click… and Post-Time is  11:10 GMT.





We are seeing some corrective movement as of Post-Time… so we will keep an observant eye as we move along to our next Update!




Tags: AUD/USD, consolidation, continuation, EUR/USD, federal reserve, Obama, quantitative easing, range, resistance, support


AUD/USD (and Euro) Look Prepared for Continued Appreciation
Posted on March 19, 2009 at 22:32 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim Salem2 Comments »


Happy Friday to All!
We are still caught in a “Foreign Exchange Vacuum” of sorts with most Major Pairs… and even the Yen Crosses… stuck in larger Areas of Consolidative Activity!
While EUR/USD is at least giving us a Symmetrical Triangle on the Hourly as a point of reference… we are simply witnesses to Price Behavior “building and forming” various Formations, if you will.
Here is a quick Hourly View for reference… so give the Capture a Click… Post-Time is 3:30 GMT…)



When we see such “Resting” and Continuation… often we will begin to see “glimmers” of partial Flags and Pennants… “pieces” of Triangles and Wedges… and “messy and loose” portions of what may become Channels.
I tend to view this Behavior in a similar fashion with my own Painting work… how we begin to put components together to eventually form a complete Statement.
The Markets appear to be doing just this… gathering their Components to begin the process of Building…


A fine example of my “unusual Analogy” here is the Aussie Dollar.
Having a nice momentum-driven Appreciation in Price…the AUD/USD is beginning a pullback now… which is “classic” in its’ Activity.
On the Daily…a push through “Static” Resistance at .6850 towards our 118.0% Fib Extension was completed… as we now are in-process of a Daily Doji Candle here.



The Hourly brings in more Clarity… with the “38.2’s”/Support Confluence being somewhat distant… yet probable Area for our corrective Pullback.




While most Majors are functioning in deeply similar fashions after the massive Dollar weakness we have seen… the Aussie looks to be promising in the Medium-Term.
If our Pullback comes to fruition, they probability of seeing the .7200 Handle is certainly not impossible!
( Again… this is a Mid-Term View..for a Position…if executed… would perhaps run its’ course over a few days…)


I will be back with you during the European Session, as always… and we will check in with the Aussie, and the “Four Siblings” as well… and especially see where Fiber is with that Symmetrical Triangle.




Tags: AUD/USD, behavior, confirmation, confluence, consolidation, EUR/USD, euro, Fibonacci, formation, Major Currency Pairs, Price, resistance, support


Consolidation Continues with the Four Siblings
Posted on March 19, 2009 at 12:27 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »



Greetings again to All!
We continue on in our larger “Ranges” here with the ‘main” Majors… our “Four Siblings”.
I do not have to much too add here, since we have had rather ”muted” Price Action today… and simply wait for Levels to be engaged or invalidated as we move along.
Here are the Captures of all four Units, so give them a Click… and Post-Time is 17:30 GMT.










As always, I will return tonight with tomorrow’s big Post to get us rolling along… and we will see where we are with the Asian Session.. and if the U.S. Equities Markets continue on… or if the Dow simply ”hovers” around 7450’s.




Tags: consolidation, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY


EUR/USD and GBP/USD Continue On as Quantitative Easing Enters the Markets
Posted on March 19, 2009 at 7:16 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »



Greetings Everyone for another Update!
Most of the Majors, do indeed, roll on… as we did meet… or continue to look for… a few Retracements areas within the last 9 hours since our previous Post.
We begin to see “normal” IntraDay Formations in this climate, as we pullback and correct with Fractal Price Behavior…. though overall… we still are in “Consolidation Mode” with most Units.
Here are the Hourly Views of Fiber and Cable, which have benefited nicely from the FOMC Rhetoric yesterday… so give them a Click… and Post-Time is 12:15 GMT.

EUR/USD continues north with a “Cluster” of the Hourly Fib Extension at 423.6% @1.3838 and the Daily 61.8% @ 1.3854 should “cap” this move and act as strong Resistance moving forward.



GBP/USD remains deeply stout on the Hourly View… and we did meet our Elipsed Retracements Area. The 127.0% Fib Extension is functioning well as of this writing as “Dynamic” Resistance.
Bullish Views will be mindful of the 1.4480’s/1.4500 Handle Areas here for major “Static” Resistance… and Bearish Views may enjoy this Area for corrections as well.




We will see if any corrections do, indeed, take place with our next Update,  as we move into the U.S. Session… although with the NYSE Open and Futures looking a bit stout… we may simply see Continuation of what we have now.




Tags: consolidation, continuation, EU, EUR/USD, euro, pound, Queen, resistance, support, U.K., USD/GBP


« Newer posts – Older posts »

hefeiddd

Posted on March 18, 2009 at 21:22 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim Salem4 Comments »

Welcome to Thursday, Everyone!
( My apologies for no Updates yesterday!… Some ISP Cable ”Grid Upgrades” in my city… also… the FXstreet Blog Servers were down for some maintenance as well… )

We give the Dollar a deep pummeling across the board with the FOMC Decision and Statement, the BoJ Rhetoric, better-than-expected CPI, and even with atrocious Unemployment out of the U.K…. The Queen still took off in the English Channel… severely beating the Dollar in their “Marathon Swim Meets”!…   
The specifics of all of this will not be visited here… as all of you have surely been privy to the Data and the Rhetoric… so straight to the Captures and Analysis as we move forward!
“That’s right, CVJ!… You talk too much!… You remind us of the little schoolgirls and all of their gossip all day long!”… Blah Blah Blah… Get on with it, Man!”…  the CVJ Fan Club Guys say…
“I think you Boys need another “special Vacation”… in the FedEx Truck!”, I say… hee hee hee…   

First up to the Window is EUR/USD… with a Daily and an Hourly View.
Our Fib Extensions Variants are straight on here… and provided a fine point of “Contact” and “Dynamic” Resistance.
Give the Captures a Click, as always… and Post-Time is 2:15 GMT.











Of course… we will revisit these Units as we move through the Asian Session… and into the European Session and the London Open!





Tags: Bank of Japan, Data, EUR/USD, Europe, federal reserve, fomc, GBP/USD, gold, United Kingdom, USD/JPY

Price Action Prepares for FOMC, CPI, BoE Minutes, BoJ, and More!
Posted on March 17, 2009 at 19:34 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings, Everyone!
A massive Data Point Day… we clock in and begin with the Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision in about 3 1/2 hours or so… with Consensus widely “Priced-In” with a Hold on Interest Rates at 0.1%.
Not surprisingly… Price Action is “Muted” ahead of the Release, but we  shall stay with Her since we are now into the Asian Session.
We may see some volatility despite this Sentiment… as we are at crucial Levels on USD/JPY, and still “hovering” around the 98.50 Area.
The coveted 100.00 Level is surely protected by Options Barriers… so Bullish Views need to at least breach the 99.60’s Resistance Areas to get “within range”.
In the Long-Term… we do see a probability of Price Appreciation continuing… and finally breaching the 100.00 Massive Level… ( perhaps even on to the 102.00 Handle in a few weeks. )
We Re-Post our Monthly View from quite some time back.. and keep the exact same Levels…as they are still valid on this Time-Cycle.
Give the Captures a Click, as always… and Post-Time is 0:30 GMT.



Now we drill down a bit to the Daily… and finally to the Hourly.






We will deal directly with the rest of the Data Points and their Releases as we head into the European Session and the next Update… as well as throughout the rest of our Day!





Tags: Bank of Japan, channel, congestion, Fibonacci, interest rate, Japan, trendline, us, USD/JPY

EUR/GBP, Gold, and Crude Oil and a Longer-Term Daily View
Posted on March 17, 2009 at 12:49 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Greetings Again, Everyone!
We jump right into  what is a “favorite” Unit of mine… the Euro Pound… a Pair we have not considered in quite some time!
For obvious reasons… I have always enjoyed the low ATR and Behavior of this Pair… even with it’s Massive Break into activity last October.
I use the Pair as a strong Bellwether of Activity for both the “health” of the EU and of the U.K…. in a general way.
Also… let’s visit with Gold and Crude Oil on the Daily Views as well… and then tonight for our large Post for tomorrow… we can “drill down” with some tighter Analysis…. and also see where we are with the USD/CAD in relation to Crude and the recent OPEC activities.
Commentary is on the Captures this time around, so be sure to give them a Click…  and Post-Time is 17:45 GMT.









I will see you a bit earlier tonight… as it is St. Patrick’s Day after all!
My Irish mother will take the Paddle to me if I do not have a few “green” Pints of Guinness and some Corned Beef and Cabbage!… hee hee hee…     










Tags: crude oil, EUR/GBP, Europe, gold, OPEC, relationship, United Kingdom, USD/CAD


EUR/USD Remains Firm Despite Consolidative Activity
Posted on March 17, 2009 at 6:57 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Hello All for another Update!
We move through the European Session now, and our thoughts on the German ZEW come to fruition with a significantly better-than-expected reading of Institutional Investor Sentiment at -3.5… from a Consensus of -7.8 and a previous reading of -5.8.
The Euro remains Well-Bid in Behavior, and breaches 1.30 Resistance with ease… although a correction is in focus here.
We add a Daily Fib Variant back in to the IntraDay Hourly view, and find some Confluence Areas.
We now find a highly probable “Transitive Rollover” coming into view with the 1.2950 Area rolling from Resistance to Support.
As is deeply common with the “Three C’s”… Continuation, Consolidation, and Co-integration… we are storing and building Energy here for a potential Break…now that we have an IntraDay Symmetrical Triangle in view.
No Commentary once again on the Capture, as there is plenty of Information already in View.
( Once again… these Captures for the Blog are indicative of my “thought processes” as we “build” our Analysis and move forward… hence they can get a little “busy” with Trend lines, S & R, and Fibonacci Ratios, etc…. as I leave them on the Charts for you to see…      ;-)

Give the Capture a Click, and Post-Time is 12:00 GMT.



As always… I will be back with another Update, as we need a check of other Units, as well as Gold and Oil!




Tags: co-integration, consolidation, continuation, currency, economics, EUR/USD, euro, Europe, Fibonacci, Germany, resistance, support, transition, ZEW


USD Continues To Weaken With Risk Appetite…But For How Long?
Posted on March 16, 2009 at 22:09 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »


Welcome to Tuesday, Everyone… and Happy St. Patrick’s Day!
With Risk Appetite firmly in place… we continue to see the Dollar and the Yen sell off across the Currency markets of late.
While it appears as if some “normalcy” may be returning to the Markets… in my personal view… it is simply still an aspect of my Bear Market Rally Sentiment from last week.
Some justifications that actually appear in favor of our current Climate include the macro-concerns from China and their Inflows into U.S. Treasuries… not to mention their own Stimulus efforts… the Plan from the U.S. administration and the Toxic Assets Plan… and finally the FOMC Meeting on Wednesday.
While I do agree the “Sentiment” is in the right place… it is simply too early and deeply premature to see any real evidence… Fundamentally or even Technically… to see any real massive Shift in Paradigm.
Remember… Just because we talk about it… does not mean it is happening.
Do you recall our ”Jawboning” thoughts yesterday?…. We have some of the same Principles in Play here…
Solutions can arrive from every aspect of our Global Climate here… but we really need Action to take place and “digest” for a while… we need to see these Concepts in Action for a little bit of time to even see if any of this “Rhetoric” is valid.
I wish to stay with the Euro here…as we head into the FOMC and tomorrow with the March ZEW Data Points out of Germany. This Figure has been interesting lately… as it has consistently “improved” little by little over the past few months…. but only in terms of EXPECTATION.
This is a unique Signifier… is Confidence beginning to slightly improve?… hence having impact on the Euro?
Here are the Daily and Hourly Views of EUR/USD, so give them a Click.
No Commentary on the Captures for now… as they really are rather Self-Explanatory with the Fibonacci Areas and various Levels in Play that remain valid.
Post-Time is 3:15 GMT.






We will drill down during the European Session Update, as always, and highlight some of the specifics as they come our way!